Florida vs. Tennessee: College Football Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

Florida Gators (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 7
Date/Time: Saturday, October 12th, 2024, 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Neyland Stadium Knoxville, TN.
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: FLA +15.5/TENN -15.5
Moneyline: FLA +500/TENN -700
Total: 54.5

Last week, the Florida Gators surprised me to a certain extent by capturing a 24-13 victory over UCF in the Swamp in Gainesville. The Gators defense had previously been horrific against the run which was an ideal match-up for the Knights looking to knock off one of their in-state rivals. Instead, Florida’s defense delivered one of their best performances of the season by limiting UCF to just 273 total yards. Meanwhile, QB Graham Mertz performed very well for the 2nd straight week to give Florida back-to-back wins and perhaps alleviate some of the hot-seat pressure on Head Coach Billy Napier.

Unfortunately the Gators momentum is likely to be short-lived as they will draw one of their toughest match-ups of the season this Saturday with a road trip to Rocky Top to battle the no. 8 Tennessee Volunteers. However, the Vols were delivered an upset at the hands of Arkansas last week, which was somewhat overshadowed by the fact that no. 1 Alabama lost to Vanderbilt. However, Tennessee was previously in the thick of the playoff discussion but suffered a 19-14 loss to Arkansas on an afternoon where they were simply outplayed. As a result, the Vols will desperately look for a bounce back opportunity this Saturday when they return to Neyland Stadium to host the Gators as 15.5 point betting favorites.

Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Analysis

Admittedly, I have not been on the Tennessee bandwagon this year primarily because the offense does not have the same threat through the air that they have in recent years with former QBs Hendon Hooker and Joe Milton. Current QB Nico Iamaleava is another dual threat talent but he just has not shown the ability to stretch the field like some of his predecessors. Offensively, the Vols are still a formidable threat on the ground with tailbacks Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop, who have already racked up nearly 900 yards on the ground and 15 touchdowns. Sampson alone ranks 2nd in the country with 12 touchdowns on the ground, and that will be the biggest threat against Florida’s defense this Saturday on Rocky Top.

After expecting Florida to have a tough time defending the run against UCF, I’m wondering again if the Gators defense can rise to the occasion on the road against a much better offensive front? The big question in this match-up will be Florida’s ability to limit the gashing plays in the run game. If they can do so, I have confidence that Florida’s offense will find ways to move the football. QB Graham Mertz is currently throwing the ball with high-level accuracy and limiting the mistakes that have cost the offense in previous settings. The Gators could help themselves by establishing more success on the ground to take the pressure off of Mertz but they have been very inconsistent in the run-game. While I have confidence Mertz will continue to play fairly well, I still think this point spread will be dependent upon the Gators’ defensive ability to stop the run. If that happens, Florida will keep this game much closer than the current spread suggests.

Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Trends

• Florida is 3-7 ATS in the last ten games.
• Florida has hit the “over” in 10 of the last 13 games.
• Florida is 3-7 SU in the last ten games.
• Florida is 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Tennessee.
• Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• Tennessee is 6-1 SU in the last seven games.
• Tennessee is 17-1 SU in the last 18 games at home.
• Tennessee has hit the “under” in 4 of the last five games against Florida.

Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Prediction

I feel like this betting line yields high-risk due to the fact both of these teams have been inconsistent at times this season. The Vols current resume does not look near as good as their ranking suggests and I have concerns with this offense moving forward. If the Gators can play decently against the run, I believe this spread is too wide. As a result, consider a small play on the Gators, who have covered five of the last six against the Vols!

Jay’s Pick: Take Florida +15.5