Volkanovski vs. Topuria Prediction | UFC 298 Picks
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Picks
When: Saturday, February 17, 2024
Where: Honda Center, Anaheim, California
TV: PPV
Fight Analysis:
UFC 298 features a real humdinger in the main event, as UFC Featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski defends his title against dangerous and unbeaten contender Ilia Topuria. Volkanovski again returns to his best weight class, where he is the champion and making his sixth defense of a title he won back in 2019. His experience at this level is a huge edge, as he takes on the relatively-inexperienced Topuria. But the 27-year old Georgian is a real handful, with all but two of his wins coming by stoppage. Who should we get behind in what is a tough one to call from Anaheim?
Alexander Volkanovski, 26-3 (13 KOs, 3 Submissions), (-140) vs. Ilia Topuria, 14-0 (4 KOs, 8 Submissions), (+115)
Alexander Volkanovski defends his UFC 145-pound belt against unbeaten challenger Ilia Topuria. Volkanovski is 8 years Topuria’s senior at 35 years of age. He has compiled a resumé at 145 pounds that puts him right at the top all-time for UFC featherweights. In July of ’23, he defended his title against Yair Rodriguez, scoring a third-round KO. His last fight, however, was a second failed title attempt at 155-pound kingpin Islam Makhachev. Whereas their first fight was a close decision loss for Volkanovski, their October rematch was a first-round KO win for the reigning champion. Topuria’s last octagon appearance was a June decision win over Josh Emmett, a fight that earned him Performance of the Night honors.
In MMA and the UFC specifically, we’ve seen a quicker turnover than in most sports. To be reigning as long as he has is already an anomaly for Volkanovski. It’s not like boxing where it’s not terribly uncommon to see guys on top for a decade or more. Volkanovski is 35 now. And when a guy has already done enough to be considered perhaps the best featherweight ever, it’s also a way of saying his best work is in the rearview. With two losses in his last three fights, it only brings that potential reality more into play. When a fighter that age gets stopped in the first round, you have to wonder how he’s going to pull out of that. Historically, aging fighters coming off knockout losses aren’t always the best guys to get behind.
You still hesitate to start shoveling dirt on a great like Volkanovski on the basis of what occurred at a different weight class. Taking on a monster like Makhachev is a daunting proposition and for a guy who isn’t even that big for a featherweight to fight him close once is still impressive. And there isn’t much bad to say about his work at 145 pounds. Some thought he may have lost one of those Max Holloway fights, but it’s been a while since he was pushed to the brink in a 145-pound title fight. That doesn’t mean he’s not a slightly-more questionable commodity than he was before taking the damage in the two fights with Makhachev.
I’m not thrilled about Volkanovski’s trajectory heading into this. I think the timing of these fights could be all wrong for him. Topuria is really a handful. You’d want to see a better lead-up to this for Volkanovski. Instead, he took the rematch with Makhachev on ten days’ notice, with this fight occurring very quickly thereafter. This is not how a champion would typically operate—rushed into a rematch he would have gotten anyway under more-ideal conditions, then jettisoned into a fight with a hungry and unbeaten contender. Sure, it could just end up being a matter of Volkanovski needing to get back to 145 pounds where he has never once tasted defeat.
I’d just be a little concerned that the champion’s “go-get-‘em” attitude might end up costing him. To be knocked out by a shin from a pound-for-pound candidate like Makhachev, in addition to all the other head shots he absorbed, I’d like to see a longer break. Even if you were to write off the Makhachev result and its proximity to this fight time-wise, this is a tough match for an aging champion even under ideal conditions. Topuria is a menace—a nasty, hungry, and driven fighter who has great boxing, good takedown defense, and a good submission game. He is afforded a normal path-of-entry for this fight—rising up the ranks with things building to a crescendo with a title fight. Conversely, we see Volkanovski being rushed into spots. It’s very odd considering he is the long-reigning champion. Normally in combat sports, it’s the challenger facing the more-difficult conditions.
With that said, this is as tough a test as it gets for any 145-pounder. And asking Toburia to vanquish what might be the best 145-pounder to ever do it is in fact a big ask. Volkanovski has massive skill that we have no reason to believe can’t still surface at his wheelhouse of 145 pounds. Topuria, however, is that new breed of MMA fighter—excellent in all areas. He can box and move like a pro, while his ground-game might even be better. He has a cageyness to him that belies his lack of top-end experience, with sneaky timing and tricky moves both in stand-up and on the ground.
Betting against Volkanovski in a 145-pound title bout should come with some reservations. Topuria’s rise up the ranks and the skills he has showcased have been impressive, but he’s taking a big leap up in class against a guy who has fought them all. I think it would be a real toss-up if the champion was entering this under better circumstances, with it maybe nudging into Topuria’s favor given what has led up to this fight. I’ll take Topuria in this one.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Ilia Topuria at +115 betting odds. It’s a big step up in a five-rounder against a champion in his 9th UFC title fight, but Topuria’s size, skills, versatility, and finishing ability makes him a guy where maybe it’s better to try to be a little early to the party, as +115 could be the best number you see on him for a while. And if not, he can know he at least lost to probably the best featherweight ever.