UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Chimaev Picks & Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Chimaev Picks
When: Saturday, June 22, 2024
Where: Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
TV: PPV
Fight Analysis:
The UFC returns to the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh for a big night of fights, headlined by two of the more well-known fighters around this weight, as former UFC Middleweight Champion Robert Whittaker battles unbeaten top contender Khamzat Chimaev on June 22. It’s a quintessential pairing between the up and coming contender in Chimaev and the former champion in Whittaker. Who will come out on top? Let’s break it down!
Robert Whittaker, 25-7 (9 KOs, 5 Submissions),(+200) vs. Khamzat Chimaev, 13-0 (6 KOs, 5 Submissions), (-250)
Former UFC 185-pound champion Robert Whittaker battles Khamzat Chimaev on June 22 in Saudi Arabia. Fresh off a win over Kamaru Usman, Chimaev now looks to add the scalp of another former belt-holder in Whittaker. The former champion, however, is hoping this puts him back in the thick of the middleweight picture—something he never left.
In a sport with such brevity of prime and so much fighter-turnover, it’s understandable how some may have relegated Whittaker to the category of “yesterday’s news.” There is some data to contrast that, however. For one, at 33, he’s only three years older than Chimaev, despite seeming to be around for so much longer. Chimaev just getting started in the UFC well after Whittaker lost his title makes that gap seem like it would be much wider. In addition, while Whittaker has absorbed some setbacks, he never really lost touch with the upper reaches of 185 pounds.
Going all the way back to 2014, the only men able to beat Whittaker are Israel Adesanya and Dricus DuPlessis, both champions. We see Whittaker even at this somewhat-advanced stage of his career still quelling some pretty compelling middleweight talent. Starting in 2020, after he lost his belt, he has topped Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, Kelvin Gastelum, Marvin Vettori, and Paolo Costa. That doesn’t really suggest a fighter in decline. If anything, his recent record shows that unless you’re at the very top, you’re not beating Robert Whittaker.
A bit of the luster is off Chimaev after he made that big run, getting to the top of the welterweight class. A rough bout with covid left him inactive. He started off as a terror, but between the inactivity and two decision wins over Burns and Usman, his popularity has leveled off. Since 2021, he has fought three times, with two of them decisions and the dominance hasn’t been in such plain view as before. His body also couldn’t make 170, as he appears now relegated to being a middleweight, where his list of accomplishments is pretty thin alongside a guy in Whittaker who has battled every top 185-pounder of the last decade. With Whittaker a former welterweight also, Chimaev will still have the advantage of a few inches and height in this bout.
The question becomes how much do you hold of this against Chimaev? For a fighter who once fought twice in ten days in the UFC, the inactivity is off-putting. The same can be said for the lack of dominance he has shown rising in weight and in opponent quality. He was losing that third round against Usman and seemed perhaps fortunate it wasn’t a five round fight as this one is.
Very smooth and educated on his feet, I picture Whittaker using his legs and his boxing—something that might be easier said than done against a wrestler with such extreme skills as Chimaev. But I’m not sure the Chechnyan has encountered such seamless stand-up in this package before.
But make no mistake—Chimaev is a handful. He comes out all charged up and his wrestling is hard to defend. He’s entertaining and magnetic with his carefree style and risk-taking. But there’s a ton of wrestling talent, strength, and guts behind that. If he starts to establish momentum early, he can really take over and leave opponents drowning in his ability. It’s not easy to stem the tide when Chimaev is zeroing in on you and having success with his wrestling.
I just can’t help but think that Whittaker’s experience, fight IQ, and overall toughness will serve him well. I think the five-round distance is also in Whittaker’s favor, as it gives him more time to adjust and the opportunity to drag Chimaev into deep water, being that Chimaev has only seen the third round twice in his career, while Whittaker made his name by being who he is in the 4th and 5th rounds.
I can fully understand the pro-Chimaev narrative. He’s rested, at his proper weight, and ready to get back to the business of dominating against an aging former champion. He is the betting favorite, so it’s not an altogether faulty premise. In addition, if you subscribe to monkey business as it pertains to UFC decisions, there might be more financial upside for the UFC to see a new star develop in Chimaev than a former champ like Whittaker breathing life into his career. I still think this sets up pretty well to take an underdog whirl on Whittaker, who brings a lot to the table for a +200 dog. I’ll take Whittaker in this one.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Robert Whittaker to win at +200 betting odds. I think his toughness, experience, robustness, and the five-round distance set up well for him to be in this with a good shot to win.
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