UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley Betting Preview and Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley Picks
When: Saturday, December 14, 2024
Where: Amalie Arena, Tampa Bay, Florida
TV: ESPN

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley on ESPN features a crossroads bout at 170 pounds, with three-time former title challenger and top contender Colby Covington taking on another ranked welterweight in Joaquin Buckley. The winner could be in line for some lucrative showdowns at 170 pounds, with the loser being sent to regroup behind a growing pack of ambitious welterweights. The streaking Buckley has found his stride of late, entering this on the heels of five straight wins, including a KO of Stephen Thompson in October. Covington, meanwhile, has been on a hiatus since losing a decision to Leon Edwards last December. Let’s break this one down!

Colby Covington, 17-4 (4 KOs, 4 Submissions), (+220) vs. Joaquin Buckley, 20-6 (14 KOs), (-270)
Welterweight contenders Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley will do battle in Tampa on UFC Fight Night on the 14th. Covington is trying to put himself in position for a fourth title shot or at the very least a big fight. He has come up short in three high-profile title fights, but still has the track record and big name and a win of this nature would give his cause some teeth. Buckley is no pushover, on a nice roll, and looking for the cherry to put on top that could get him in line for something big.

Fight Analysis

The case with Covington has a few different sides. Going for him is the fact that since coming into his own as a pro, only champions have been able to beat him, with the two losses to Kamaru Usman and his loss in his last fight to Leon Edwards. And rounding out his ledger is a handful of dominant wins over quality UFC opposition. He is still a supreme wrestler with a lot of guts and stamina for days. And just because he’s been unable to annex the UFC belt doesn’t make him fodder for every hopeful contender.

On the flip side of the equation for Covington is that with over a decade in the organization, old age has begun to creep in with Covington a few months from his 37th birthday. While he has lost only to champions, he is still only 2-3 in his last five fights, and you’d probably have liked to see him be more competitive in those title opportunities, with it never really looking like Covington was going to win.

While cultivating this super-villain approach, he seemed more focused on making money and being a star than his actual MMA. And not that he didn’t earn some good money and become well-known, but we are almost at 2025, with Covington having scored two wins since beating Robbie Lawler in August of 2019. That’s not a ton of recent success and in the meanwhile, Buckley has been active, honing his craft, and picking up wins. It’s a big part of the reason that despite so much less overall visibility, it is Buckley who enters this as the prohibitive favorite, as a better than two-to-one choice.

Buckley, 30, has been in the UFC since 2020, starting off a bit slow at 2-2, then also suffering back-to-back defeats during a difficult stretch in 2022. But he has been in winning form, dazzling with some big knockouts. While a few inches shorter than Covington, he has a half-foot advantage in reach, as the spidery St. Louis native can be really deceptive with his striking range.

While Covington didn’t look good in his last fight, following a pre-fight buildup filled with vitriol and more big talk, with a pedestrian showing where he looked faded, it’s still a step up for Buckley. He has been stepping up lately, with a quality win over Thompson in October and his win before that over Nursulton Ruziboev, who had won ten straight. But things can combine strangely in the fight game when two fighters meet after mixing it up in completely different circles. And while we enter this with the notion that Buckley has looked far better than Covington recently, that evaluation might be flipped if each guy had fought who their opponent has been fighting these last few years. Who’s to say how bad Buckley might have looked after three fights with the best in the division?

Still, there is some hard-to-shake evidence that Covington is on the downslope. And his diminishing results when pitted against the best is no small indicator, his last fight the worst of the lot, as he really did seem like he lost a step—slow and wooden and unable to make adjustments. You have the damage sustained in nearly 15 rounds with Usman and Edwards. It appeared he sustained some damage in a street attack by Jorge Masvidal. And even though he and UFC head Dana White have some things in common, you get the feeling White considers Covington, a blockhead and wouldn’t mind being done with him, perhaps leading to this pairing where White feels Buckley is the right guy to bring Covington’s erosion to light.

Even if we’re right in assuming Covington is now squarely on the downside of his career and might be feeling the effects of a long, demanding, and punishing career, it doesn’t automatically mean Buckley is up for the challenge. But at the same time, a fast, athletic, and uncompromising striker like Buckley might be the worst guy for Covington right now. I think once Covington starts getting hit, he’s going to start swelling up and receding, with Buckley either closing the show or content to win on the cards. I’m taking Buckley in this one.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Joaquin Buckley at -270 betting odds. A dangerous striker who has been active and in winning form, Buckley combines youth, speed, KO power, and high ambitions, which combine into a package that might be all wrong for the aging and waning Covington.