UFC 315 Picks: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena & Shevchenko vs. Fiorot

When: Saturday, May 10, 2026

Where: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

TV: PPV

UFC 315 features a big card out of Montreal with a double-championship card. UFC Welterweight Champion Belal Muhammad will make the first defense of his 170-pound belt against challenger Jack Della Maddallena, who comes into this fight with a 15-fight winning streak. Also on the card, longtime UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion Valentina Shevchenko defends her belt against top challenger Marion Fiorot in a fight that the oddsmakers have as a near toss-up. Let’s break this big card down!

Fight Analysis:

Belal Muhammad, 24-3 (5 KOs, 1 Submission), (-240) vs. Jack Della Maddalena, 19-2 (12 KOs, 2 Submissions), (+200)

UFC Welterweight Champion Belal Muhammad defends his title against Jack Della Maddalena. Muhammad and Della Maddalena are unique in a sport where long win streaks are not so common, with the champion on an 11-fight unbeaten streak with one loss since 2016, while JDM has rattled off 15 wins in a row. Both fighters are in fine form. Muhammad, 36, fights for the first time since beating Leon Edwards for the belt in England in July of last year. JDM, meanwhile, is coming off a March 2024 KO of Gilbert Burns, where he won a Performance of the Night bonus.

What may stand out to most is the disparity in their world-class experience. While JDM has turned it on lately with wins over Kevin Holland and Burns, these are fighters whose results had begun to wane. He will be facing a guy who has been coming out on the sunny side of fights against one tough guy after another, culminating in a title-winning effort over a former conqueror of his in Edwards. He has excelled at the top levels and got better and better over time. He might not be the most dangerous fighter, with only six stoppage wins in his 27-fight career, but he’s vastly experienced and tough while also being able to mix things up, change styles, and adapt to the opposition he is facing.

JDM is on a big old roll. It’s odd to see a fighter drop his first two fights and then go on a big unbeaten run like this. He has obviously dialed in a good formula. The man can strike, and he has the kind of punches that make one think if Muhammad rushes in to close distance, he could wind up getting hurt by the crafty challenger. And on the outside, JDM being a little longer and more adept overall as a striker could help give him some options.

In the end, however, I think Muhammad is too experienced, clever, varied, and tough for the likes of JDM. I think the challenger is dangerous and fulfills some things you want in an underdog pick. He’s dangerous and a bit of an X-factor in this division—a man whose true strength you just don’t know yet. He’s eight years younger than the champ, and sometimes, there are benefits to blindly favoring youth. I just can’t help but think that the pressure Muhammad applies will end up creating an unappealing overall matchup for Della Maddalena as Muhammad crosses the finish line ahead once again. I’ll take the champion.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Belal Muhammad at -240 betting odds. I think the boxing-heavy approach of JDM feeds into the style of Muhammad, whose advantages will be pronounced if he can get this one to the floor on a regular basis.

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UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion Valentina Shevchenko defends her title against challenger Marion Fiorot in the co-main event of UFC 315. A lot of people like Fiorot’s chances in this fight. She’s been on a nice run, and since losing her pro debut, she has won all 12 of her fights, going on a pretty dominant run in her UFC tenure. And with Shevchenko having accrued a lot of mileage on her odometer, one can see why some are optimistic of Fiorot’s chances.

In Fiorot’s favor are a few things. From France, she’ll get a little extra support here in Montreal. She has a little size on Shevchenko. Despite being just a year younger at 35, she has also been spared the mileage of a brief boxing career, a 60-fight kickboxing career, and a dozen UFC title fights. Fiorot has also shown she can go five rounds and that she has the stamina to hang in there in the championship rounds.

And let’s face it—it’s fair to ask how much Shevchenko has left after crawling her way back to the title in a three-fight series with Alexa Grasso. First, she lost her belt, and while she showed improvement in getting a draw and eventually a win to reclaim her belt, she’s now been fighting in big fights for the better part of a decade, and this is reasonably the point where one starts anticipating diminished returns.

I’m a bit concerned that Fiorot’s ability to end fights has seemingly diminished as the quality of her opposition rose, with five straight decision wins. I understand she’s the fresher fighter with a run of wins to suggest she’s up to the task of beating Shevchenko. But in this one, I’m going to opt for talent. Shevchenko has seen her striking register at the highest levels and is still an awfully tough out at this level. I’ll go with the champion.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Valentina Shevchenko at -105 betting odds. I think Shevchenko is more likely to end the fight and is the more dangerous striker. With her urgency high, knowing this is a tough challenge, I look for her to fight accordingly and get another big win under her belt.

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