UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes & Chandler vs. Pimblett Fight Picks

UFC 314: Main Event Picks

When: Saturday, April 12, 2025

Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida

TV: PPV

Fight Analysis:

UFC 314 is a big card of fights from Miami on April 12 where the trajectory of some of the sport’s bigger names will be determined based on the results of this event. Former UFC Featherweight Champion looks to make another title run, with streaking contender Diego Lopes standing in his way in a bout for the vacant UFC Featherweight Title. Also, at 155 pounds, contenders Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett engage in a fight where the winner moves ahead in the talent-rich waters of the lightweight division. Let’s break it down!

Alexander Volkanovski, 26-4 (13 KOs, 3 Submissions), (-155) vs. Diego Lopes, 26-6 (10 KOs, 12 Submissions), (+133)

Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes battle for the vacant UFC Featherweight Title. Champion Ilia Topuria, having moved up to 155 pounds, leaves a void atop the division, with the man he beat for the title in Volkanovski and top contender Lopes now vying for the vacant strap. Volkanovski is now 36 and will be giving up nearly half a foot in height to Lopes, a dangerous contender who has seen 22 of his 26 wins occur inside the distance.

Doing a comparison of each man’s recent work comes with numerous drawbacks. We don’t want to double-count Volkanovski’s recent struggles. We already know this is a fight between a rising contender in Lopes, a man who has yet to perform at these high levels, and a guy in Volkanovski, who is a former champion. But they haven’t been operating in the same realm, which means one should take certain facts with a grain of salt. One of those is how Lopes has won five straight, while Volkanovski has won once in his last four fights.

Perhaps Lopes would be seeing a similar downswing if in his last four fights, he had to fight Islam Makhachev twice, along with taking on Topuria, as Volkanovski did. It takes a special fighter to beat Volkanovski. But at the same time, we are conditioned in this sport to acknowledge downturns, regardless of how they occur. And when a fighter is 36, is 1-3 in his last four, and has the mileage on his odometer that the ex-champ does, it’s fair to begin expecting diminishing returns. It’s just that I’m reluctant to shovel dirt on Volkanovski, and I suspect he wouldn’t have been taking losses if he had been fighting the guys Lopes has fought. At the same time, the mind struggles to recall a time that a 36-year-old on this kind of run won a title fight in the UFC.

While there could be some questions as to what version of Volkanovski we are going to get after seeing him get stopped in his last two fights with strikes, he is still the more solid part of this equation. What we have with Lopes is the bigger question. He looks giant alongside Volkanovski. He’s on a nice run and appears to be the best version of who he is right now. I just think the ex-champ is better, and unless erosion or age comes into play, I think the Aussie great has another good fight in him. I’ll take Alexander Volkanovski.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Alexander Volkanovski at -155 betting odds. The ex-champ is on a bit of a bad run, with those losses maybe painting an image that surpasses reality. And against the more rank-and-file contenders of the world, such as Lopes, the ex-champ can still see his excellence shine through.

Michael Chandler, 23-9 (11 KOs, 7 Submissions), (+110) vs. Paddy Pimblett, 22-3 (6 KOs, 10 Submissions), (-130)
Lightweights Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett will tangle in a high-stakes 155-pound bout, the co-main event of the evening. Things are heating up in this division, leaving these two big names with little margin for error. The veteran Chandler, now 38, is in need of a big win after a rough run as of late. Pimblett, meanwhile, has won eight in a row, and a big name like Chandler on his ledger would only increase his appeal.

The 30-year-old Pimblett is on a nice run, but some uneven performances, some inactivity, and his weight appearing to balloon out of control have perhaps slowed his progress. Like the principles in the main event, these fighters have been operating in different dimensions. Pimblett has been taking on some talented fighters, to be sure, but more along the lines of opponents you give to up-and-coming fighters to help build their name. Chandler, on the other hand, hasn’t been enjoying the same winning results, but he’s been fighting guys like Charles Oliveira, Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, and the cream of the crop of what might be the toughest division in the sport. On the surface, a guy winning eight straight would seem to be a gigantic favorite over a fighter with just one win in his last five fights. Pimblett, being only a mild favorite, attests to the disparity of their respective opponents.

On one hand, one should be reluctant to discount Chandler because of losses, as he has always rebounded well after going through rough patches. I think at 38, however, and with the accrued mileage of a series of demanding fights, that Chandler is perhaps on his way out. He never got the Conor McGregor fight, which he had hoped would lead to another title fight. He just ended up in this nowhere-land where he’s taking on one tough guy after another, not really achieving much success, and playing out the song we’ve all heard many times. Granted, his back is against the wall, and he still brings a lot of skill to the table, but I see this as a good spot for Pimblett to see his wrestling and fight IQ manifest as he furthers his contender status with a solid win. I’ll take Pimblett.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Paddy Pimblett to win at -130 betting odds. He’s the bigger, younger, and fresher fighter with good skills to counter what Chandler does best. It won’t be easy, as Pimblett is unproven in this context, but I think he is being served up a decent spot in this one.