UFC 311 Predictions: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 & Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedov
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Picks
When: Saturday, January 18. 2025
Where: Intuit Dome, Inglewood, California
TV: PPV
Fight Analysis:
UFC 311 is the first major event of 2025, a double-championship bill with both UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev and UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili making title defenses. As of now, this card is slated to take place in Inglewood at the Intuit Dome, though the wildfire situation could put that in some peril. Reportedly, Dana White has some contingency plans, with Las Vegas a possible site if circumstances dictate. Either way, it’s an exciting card with two high-stakes fights topping of the bill that figures to be exciting.
Islam Makhachev, 26-1 (5 KOs, 12 Submissions), (-390) vs. Arman Tsarukyan, 22-3 (9 KOs, 5 Submissions), (+295)
Islam Makhachev defends his UFC Lightweight Title against Arman Tsarukyan in the UFC 311 main event. Many consider Makhachev the number-one fighter pound for pound in the sport of MMA. If he’s not, he’s pretty close. Undefeated since 2015 with four dominant world title fight wins to his credit, he has been excellent. But back in 2019 on his ride up the UFC ladder, he had a difficult fight with Tsarukyan, winning a tough decision in a bout that won Fight of the Night. Tsarukyan has since gone 9-1 and represents an interesting challenge to what has been a dominant UFC Lightweight Champion.
Tsarukyan, 28, is five years younger than the champion and maybe just now really coming into his own. He’s not just a guy who gave a good fight to the champ when he was coming up being gifted a title shot. He has beaten some good contenders and stayed on a mostly-winning note since losing in a good effort to Makhachev the first time around. He’s a little shorter, giving up a few inches to the champion at 5’7”, yet still surprisingly rangy.
I think the five-round distance and how Makhachev has thrived in this context goes a long way in this fight. Whereas Makhachev’s true scope of skills was muted a bit in their first fight, a fifteen minute affair, this is for the full 25 minutes. That’s a distance Tsarukyan has only tasted once, and that was the only time he lost since he last faced Makhachev, losing a five-round decision to fellow contender Mateusz Gamrot. I don’t question whether Tsarukyan can trouble Makhachev early, stun him, or even hurt him and win a round or two. But what happens after?
Tsarukyan will do some damage early and have some success in the beginning stages of this fight. I think as the fight carries on into the middle rounds from the third onwards, we will see Makhachev zero in some with sharp shots, tie up his opponent, and stuff takedown attempts better as the challenger starts to get a little worn-out. In a fight that could be close, I like the champion to win.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting Islam Makhachev to win at -390 betting odds while also preferring the “over” 4.5 rounds at -185. I see Makhachev avoiding some anxious early moments as his superior stamina and experience of thriving over the championship distance gets it done.
Merab Dvalishvili, 18-4 (3 KOs, 1 Submission), (+275) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov, 18-0 (2 KOs, 7 Submissions), (-350)
UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab Dvalishvili defends his UFC Bantamweight Championship against undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov in the co-main event on UFC 311. Dvalishvili has been on quite a run lately, riding the crest of an 11-fight winning streak that culminated in a title-winning effort against Sean O’Malley in December. It won’t be easy, with the challenger carrying a big name and an unbeaten record.
Perhaps we should have seen it coming more with Dvalishvili, as he’s really stacking big names on his ledger. And even with some of them coming against guys who were more on the downside of their careers, beating Marlon Moraes, Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo, and then O’Malley is a nice little run leading to this spot. Nurmagomedov, five years younger than the champion at 29, doesn’t have the same credentials, but we know he has a good background, and he’s been impressive in his six UFC fights. His August win over Cory Sandhagen consolidated his contender status.
Dvalishvili is a unique study in a few different ways. His UFC career got off to a rocky start, and he was hanging on for dear life after a loss in 2018, which dropped him to 7-4. That was the last time he lost, as he built up slowly and made it all the way to the top. He is also a bit unusual in that he had to grind out a lot of decisions in order to do it. It’s not often you see a fighter at this level with over 20 fights and just four stoppages.
I think certain things set up well for Nurmagomedov. First of all, working with his cousin, legend Khabib, along with stablemate Makhachev, he’s not likely to see a ton of things he hasn’t already seen. He’s the superior striker by a fairly clear margin. I like the way he positions himself somewhat angularly, making it difficult for a guy like Dvalishvili to land those takedowns on him. And Nurmagomedov can be in a position where he’s the superior striker, and the things he needs to watch out for are more limited. Working with who he is working with, he’s not going to be dominated on the ground.
If Nurmagomedov can avoid being taken to the ground and controlled, it starts to shake out as a dicey matchup for the champion. Nurmagomedov’s scrambling ability should have him in OK shape, as he controls distance with his jabs. He’s going to have to repel the inevitable Dvalishvili energy surge at some point, where the sheer life force of the champion threatens to take over, but I see Nurmagomedov’s varied striking and ability to establish tempo with his striking being enough to get the job done to win the UFC Bantamweight Title.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Umar Nurmagomedov at -350 betting odds. He’s the more dangerous fighter, with good striking and his ground-game both being viable routes to a victory. The champion Merab is a dynamo and a supreme wrestler but he might be in one of the worst matchups in the division for what he does well to shine through.