UFC 308 Best Bets: Expert Picks and Analysis
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Picks
When: Saturday, October 26, 2024
Where: Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
TV: PPV
UFC 308 features a top card from one of the UFC’s favorite overseas locations in Abu Dhabi. At the top of the card is the undefeated UFC Featherweight Champion Ilia Topuria, taking on the legendary ex-champ Max Holloway. Another rising undefeated fighter appears in the co-feature, as top middleweight contender Khamzat Chimaev takes on ex-champ Robert Whittaker. With two of the top fights on the card being battles between “old vs. young,” who should we get behind in UFC 308?
UFC 308 Fight Analysis & Predictions:
Ilia Topuria, 15-0 (5 KOs, 8 Submissions), (-285) vs. Max Holloway, 26-7 (12 KOs, 2 Submissions), (+235)
Ilia Topuria makes the first defense of his UFC Featherweight Title against longtime former champion Max Holloway in the UFC 308 main event. Topuria, 27, is fresh off his KO win over Alexander Volkanovski to win the title. Holloway, now 32, had previously lost his title to Volkanovski, also losing twice more to him in rematches. He now tries to get his title back against an unbeaten 27-year-old who has been dominant in his 7 UFC appearances.
With Holloway getting older and his last octagon performance being an unforgettable lightweight slugfest with Justin Gaethje, some might forget Holloway has still shown he can get down to featherweight, which is amazing with how long he has been making 145 pounds. That last fight was Holloway’s Rocky Balboa moment, a truly spectacular last-second KO against a top slugger in Gaethje. It also showed that despite endless mileage on his odometer, a world-title resume that goes back a decade, and ten careers worth of big moments, old Max still has something in the tank.
This fight, however, is a tall order for Holloway. Topuria is so gifted across so many different areas, is fresh as a daisy, and while Volkanovski may have been primed to be plucked, he ran right through him. Holloway has the experience, the know-how, the guts, etc. It’s just that by now, we’ve gotten enough data from the sport not to be conditioned to pick guys to return to the throne five years after being deposed. And while looking at it that way perhaps keeps me from acknowledging some valued parts of Holloway’s make-up or maybe even some flaws with Topuria, it has been a pretty reliable guiding light in this sport.
I wouldn’t even argue that vehemently against a sentimental flyer on Holloway. He’s never been knocked out and submitted just once—a dozen years ago. His back is against the wall, as title shots beyond this if he fails might be difficult to come by. I just think Topuria is going to be too much, and while Holloway can still perform at 145 pounds, it might not be his best weight class at this point. And in the end, I think it’s going to take a little too much to unseat Topuria. I’ll take the champion to retain his belt.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Ilia Topuria at -285 betting odds. While you can’t count out the cagey and dangerous veteran Holloway, Topuria is the new wave at 145 pounds, and it’s going to take something quite stunning to put the belt back in the hands of the old champion.
Khamzat Chimaev, 13-0 (6 KOs, 5 Submissions), (-195) vs. Robert Whittaker, 26-7 (10 KOs, 5 Submissions), (+165)
Khamzat Chimaev battles former UFC Champion Robert Whittaker in the UFC 308 co-main event. This bout was scheduled for earlier this year before Chimaev had to bow out with an illness. Whittaker instead took on Ikram Aliskerov, stopping him in the first round and giving him two nice wins in a row following a win over Paulo Costa. Five years after losing the middleweight crown, he now looks for a win that would put him in line for another shot. It won’t be easy against the unbeaten Chimaev, who should presumably be better now that he’s not dying to make 170 pounds anymore. A supreme wrestler who can turn your lights out, Chimaev is the favorite entering this fight.
While the urge is to focus on what happens in the octagon, Chimaev’s road to this spot is troubling to say the least. After a rough bout with covid, his octagon appearances became sparse. We saw him fighting three times a year and suddenly grind to a halt. After beating Kevin Holland in 2022, he was out over a year before returning to narrowly beat Kamaru Usman by decision. Now after having to bail out of his last fight with Whittaker, it will have been over a year since he last fought when he faces Whittaker in this fight. You just have to wonder if there’s something wrong with him in a long-term sense for his career to have stalled out like this. If you’re getting what can expected to be prime-time Chimaev, that’s one thing. But is that what we should expect to be seeing?
The thing is, if Chimaev isn’t tip-top, he’s probably not beating Whittaker. The former champion has taken some Ls over the course of his career, but he’s been at this level for a long time and never really lost touch. Since 2014, the only two men to beat Whittaker are guys who either were or are the champion. Chimaev is a force of nature, or at least he was. But maybe I’m off my rocker when I come to the conclusion that Whittaker is the better fighter. Maybe my eyes deceive me, but I’m going with it. I’m taking Robert Whittaker in this one.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Robert Whittaker at +165 betting odds. I think the completeness of Whittaker’s skills, combined with the notion that Chimaev isn’t in 2024 what he was in 2020, make Whittaker a nice underdog play in the UFC 308 co-main event.
