UFC 307 Predictions: Pereira vs. Rountree, Jr. – Can the Champ Retain?

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Roundtree, Jr. Picks
When: Saturday, October 5, 2024
Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
TV: PPV

UFC 307 in Salt Lake City features thrilling knockout artist and UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira defending his belt for the third time against contender Khalil Roundtree. For a guy who has only fought in the UFC 8 times, Pereira has made his impression, winning two titles and ending all his title fights by KO, with one exception, And in that fight, he lost to a guy in Israel Adesanya who he had beaten multiple times before, both in MMA and kickboxing. Roundtree certainly has his hands full, but has been on a roll and is dangerous in his own right. What’s the right move for this fight?

Fight Analysis

Alex Pereira, 11-2 (9 KOs), (-510) vs. Khalil Roundtree, Jr., 13-5 (9 KOs), (+370)
Alex Pereira defends his UFC 205-pound belt against Khalil Roundtree on October 5. With Pereira, we know what we’re getting—a feared striker who though relatively young in his MMA career is a seasoned fighter with an accomplished kickboxing career in his background. He’s made of steel and as close to a MMA superhero as you will find—built like a brickhouse at 6’4″ and able to get whatever he hits solidly to stop moving. And maybe he’s more comfortable at 205 pounds and not having to sweat down to make 185 pounds, having looked excellent since moving up to light heavy four fights ago, with three straight title-fight knockouts.

On a few levels, Roundtree getting this shot is a bit suspect, though it’s not entirely undeserved. On the surface, a 34-year-old with a 13-5 record isn’t who you’d be inclined to pick against someone like Pereira. And after having to pull out of a June fight with ex-champ and former Pereira KO victim Jamahal Hill for testing positive for a banned substance, it’s odd to see him almost get rewarded for that by getting put into a title fight right away with his suspension having barely elapsed. But alas, we are not here for ethics but to cash winning tickets.

For his part, Roundtree has come around commendably. A former finalist of The Ultimate Fighter, his UFC career got off to a rough start as Roundtree was still in the formative stages of his career, already fighting for the top organization. And credit to both the UFC and Roundtree for not being deterred when, from 2018-21, he lost three of four fights, two by KO and to guys who weren’t really top-end properties in the light heavyweight division. But since then, he’s gone unbeaten, winning five in a row.

Normally, Roundtree would get a tip of the cap and kudos for turning things around in a career that seemed destined for mid-pack success. However, this is the context of a world title fight going against an ultra-dangerous and credentialed champion. Therefore, a more critical eye is called for in this case, and when using that point-of-view, he hasn’t beaten anyone to suggest he can make this jump. He has beaten some talented fighters. But whereas Pereira’s ledger reads like a who’s-who of relevant names from 185-205 pounds, the biggest name on Roundtree’s list of wins is probably fringe contender Anthony Smith. That’s a jarring disparity.

Then again, if looking for someone to score the big upset, why not someone like Roundtree? Having trained in Muay-Thai overseas in Thailand, we’ve seen some fearsome striking from Roundtree, who has 9 KOs in his 13 wins. When he starts zeroing in with strikes, it’s a dangerous proposition for any 205-pounder on the planet. It’s a tricky thing getting into exchanges with Pereira, but in a way, that’s where you want him. His defense isn’t as good as his offense, and we’ve seen him get caught, hurt, and stopped; with Roundtree, at least you have a guy who can do that.

In this fight, it’s important to put Roundtree’s rightfulness as a title-challenger and everything else aside, like his positive drug test, his shaky record, and so on. Since returning from Thailand, he’s a more refined striker, but still has that rawness from before. He can do damage with kicks and punches—both to concussive effect. And he seems to be peaking, as his recent track record will attest.

Maybe Roundtree’s attributes make for a better upset candidate—a guy who can shut someone’s lights out, as opposed to another contender who might be more capable overall, but just less-dangerous. Roundtree doesn’t have to worry about ground-game in this one. He doesn’t have to worry about being out-wrestled. He doesn’t have to worry about being put into a submission. In fact, you see neither fighter in this title fight with a submission win, which is odd. This is going to be a quasi-kickboxing/pure striking battle. That leaves little middle-ground for Roundtree, as this will either be a raging success or a brutal failure.

I think Roundtree is going to be on the right road for him to achieve success in this fight—a striking battle with the champion where anything can happen once the shots start flying. When you get to this level, there often times isn’t as much separating the two fighters as it might seem. But while I feel Roundtree will be on the right street, there are too many dark alleys in the form of Pereira, where it’s just hard to envision this being the spot where it comes apart. I think the danger-element of Roundtree and the lines upon which this battle will be fought lends itself to a quick stoppage win for Pereira.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Alex Pereira to win at -510 betting odds. As is customary in the MMA betting markets, prop bets on this fight won’t be released until closer to fight time. I will checking back on Bovada to take advantage of some early-round propositions, whether it’s for Pereira to win in the first or second round, or for the fight to end in those rounds. Check Bovada for more odds closer to UFC 307 fight night!