UFC 305: Key Prediction for du Plessis vs. Adesanya Middleweight Fight

UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya Picks

When: Sunday, August 18, 2024

Where: RAC Arena, Perth, Australia

TV: PPV

UFC 305 features a pivotal middleweight title fight in its main event as current champion Dricus du Plessis battles former two-time 185-pound champion Israel Adesanya. The former champion lost the belt in a big upset to Sean Strickland, who then proceeded to drop the belt to du Plessis in a close split decision loss in January of this year. It is now time for du Plessis to make his first defense against the signature fighter of this weight in the past half-decade. Who can get it done for us in the UFC 305 main event? Let’s break it down!

Fight Analysis

Dricus du Plessis, 21-2 (9 KOs, 10 Submissions), (+115) vs. Israel Adesanya, 24-3 (16 KOs), (-135)—Odds by Bovada

Dricus du Plessis defends his UFC Middleweight Title against ex-champ Israel Adesanya in the UFC 305 main event. It is the first defense for du Plessis and not an easy one, as Adesanya is a fixture at the elevated levels of 185 pounds. Both have a kickboxing career in their backgrounds, with Adesanya’s being at the pro level and du Plessis an amateur. But both left the sport to pursue the more-lucrative waters of MMA. At 30, du Plessis is five years younger than Adesanya. The former champion, however, will have 4 inches in height and reach over du Plessis in this bout.

Some might be underselling du Plessis in this spot. Part of that comes from what was a less-than conclusive annexation of the titles when he beat Strickland, who some felt deserved the nod in a fight where there was little to separate the two men over five rounds. And let’s not forget that Strickland didn’t beat Adesanya on a fluke KO shot, instead systematically beating him over five rounds. So, either way, Adesanya or his backers aren’t really in a position to nit-pick the manner in which du Plessis beat Strickland, who was fairly dominant over the ex-champ.

There is also this notion with Adesanya that it’s a matter of urgency. And we’ve seen him fare well in rematches before, namely when he regained the belt over current light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. But after a long time at the top of MMA, combined with an 80-fight kickboxing career, maybe the 35-year-old is a little past it. A fighter who depends on reflexes, speed, and accuracy can dull over time, and his 5-round loss to Strickland was perhaps a sign of more bad things to come. In other words, it might come down to more than Adesanya simply being on-point for a fight and that it’s not just a matter of him motivating himself into a state where the 185-pound class will be his oyster again. He has some wear on him, has been to the mountaintop twice, and has seen the 185-pound class become deeper since he got on top. To scale these heights once again and become a three-time champion is not going to be an easy task.

Despite his most high-profile fight going to decision, du Plessis is quite the finisher with nine KOs and ten subs among his 21 pro wins. Since coming into the UFC, he has stopped five of his seven opponents and has yet to taste defeat in the world’s premier MMA organization, his last loss coming six years ago against a fighter he also beat. The South African has not seen much defeat either in his unbeaten kickboxing run or in MMA with two losses in the more-formative stages of his development. Then again, he hasn’t been in with the same company as Adesanya, other than Strickland. While Adesanya has spent the better part of the last decade taking on elite talent, du Plessis has been building up to this point, only recently getting a taste of what it’s like to be in there with the best. And while it’s a limited window, and he fared far better in his one really big fight than Adesanya did against the same opponent, Adesanya’s viability at this level is far more established.

This fight will play out across interesting lines. Adesanya is by far the more-picturesque fighter. His kickboxing is cleaner and the telling shots easier to see. He’s more pleasing to the eyes in many ways. Du Plessis is more awkward. But we saw that energetic and aggressive gameplan work well against Adesanya when he was crowded and pressed by Strickland, unable to get into a clean groove. He’s going to be looking for a version of that in this fight, where he’s maintaining a distance and piecing up du Plessis with his greater speed, accuracy, and overall kickboxing prowess. He has the advantages of height, reach, and quickness to make that seem like a reasonable route to victory for the ex-champ.

The champion, however, is the stronger man. He’s far better in the grappling department and in the overall ground-game, with his ten submissions attesting to that, as opposed to zero for Adesanya. He has moved through the ranks of the UFC unafraid and as the champion, he now has the confidence to know he belongs. At 30 and with less wear on his body, maybe he’s the guy who is more likely to show improvement.

Still, we have seen Adesanya able to refocus himself and come back better. How many times he can go back to that well is iffy, but with some time off and having shown he can return to vanquish a warrior of Pereira’s caliber, maybe the move is to go with him pulling it off one more time. It’s a daunting challenge against a fighter who might be getting overlooked by the more-casual fan, but I see Adesanya pulling it off and nipping a decision win. I’ll go with Adesanya.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Israel Adesanya at -135 betting odds. The former champion has a big task ahead of him, but with his length and advantages in mobility and quickness, I see him being able to create some distance in the stand-up and do his thing against du Plessis, braving some anxious moments, and crossing the finish-line ahead.

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