UFC 303 Predictions: McGregor vs. Chandler Pick

UFC 303: McGregor vs. Chandler Picks

When: Sunday, June 29, 2024

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: PPV

Fight Analysis:

UFC 303 features a fascinating card from Las Vegas on June 29, with the “notorious one” Conor McGregor making his return in the main event, taking on Michael Chandler in a battle of 155-pound contenders. For McGregor, it marks his first UFC appearance in 3 years, as he recovered from a leg injury and pursued other interests. In Chandler, he should receive a strong litmus-test on where he stands in 2024 amongst the top lightweights in the world. Let’s break it down!

Conor McGregor, 22-6 (19 KOs, 1 Submission), (-105) vs. Michael Chandler, 23-8 (11 KOs, 7 Submissions), (-115)

Conor McGregor battles Michael Chandler on June 29 at T-Mobile Arena in the UFC 303 main event. While some of the luster is off both men after some tough recent outings, there is always something to be said for star-power, something Conor McGregor always brings with him. And for all their recent tribulations, it’s still a bout where the winner will have many lucrative options at his choosing. Who can emerge victorious in this high-stakes lightweight showdown?

I think it’s easy to lose money on great fighters once they cease being great. When a guy reaches heights like Conor did, it’s not hard to forecast a return to form or to just be generally slow to acknowledge the true level of erosion and the passage of time. He left a winning image that doesn’t fade easily. But in the bottom-line business of betting on fights, it has been a long time since betting on Conor was the right move. Other than winning as a massive favorite against Donald Cerrone in 2020, a winning bet has not been placed on McGregor since his 2016 win over Eddie Alvarez.

With McGregor securing generational wealth, it’s hard to nitpick his decisions, but he has not won at this level in getting close to a decade. He’s now a not-so-fresh 35 years of age. His most-recent appearances, whether it be lopsided losses to Mayweather, Khabib, or two losses to Dustin Poirier have shown a fighter no longer being a bankable commodity from a betting sense.

The one saving grace in favor of the McGregor winning equation in this fight is that Michael Chandler might not be in any better shape. It would be one thing if McGregor was fighting a guy on the rise, but he’s actually facing an older man in the 38-year old Chandler and one whose recent fighting record is just as spotty as McGregor’s. There is the built-in rivalry, with each man having been opposing coaches on The Ultimate Fighter that bolsters the marketability of this fight. But maybe it’s a savvy way to get McGregor’s career rolling again with a quality win over a fighter in Chandler who has also lost 3 of four to good opposition, with his only win being as a giant favorite in a not-so-demanding spot.

Still, inactivity is difficult to overcome. Chandler hasn’t exactly been a whirlwind himself, having not fought since late-2022 when he was stopped by McGregor tormentor Poirier. Chandler has at least been in the mix. McGregor last fought three years ago and if one recalls, he was fairly inactive in long stretches prior to that. You take a fighter like McGregor who was really a sharpshooting assassin in the octagon and start piling on all these losses and inactivity, as age creeps in—you start to wonder how much of a resemblance he bears to his former self at this point.

Again, he just might have drawn the right opponent in Chandler. The former longtime Bellator champion has been fighting at a high level at 155 pounds for well over a decade. Before being knocked out by Charles Oliveira, who isn’t known for his KO’s at this level, he was KO’d several times during his on-again/off-again title run in Bellator. Make no mistake, he’s an MMA practitioner of the highest order, well-versed in all aspects of fighting and a threat in many areas. But he has taken damage and racked up a ton of miles on his odometer over the course of a long and demanding MMA career. Any serious follower of MMA knows how good he is, while also wondering if he’s still the same guy with his UFC run a somewhat-paltry 2-3, following a long tenure at Bellator.

In other words, I’m of the feeling that McGregor is no longer bankable when placed in the octagon with top-notch talent. And to his credit, the times he has come up short were to elite opposition, the best at 155 pounds. And the same can be said for Chandler. I just feel Chandler is in that middle ground where McGregor can still thrive. Chandler is dangerous, but now at 38 and with a year-and-a-half break coming off a rough patch, he’s in a lot of ways on that same iffy ground as Conor.

Whatever merit McGregor has a fighter in mid-2024 is up for debate. What I think we can expect is a well-rested McGregor to really make a strong go at this. He knows another loss will just leave him a big name who can no longer really win. And if he’s looking to have a little bit of a late-career renaissance, he can’t afford another setback. Chandler is good, but I think fighting him now is a wise move where McGregor can score a nice win against a fighter who might have sailed a bit past his expiration date. I’ll go with Conor McGregor in this one.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Conor McGregor at -105 betting odds. It’s not an easy move to make. It’s been a long time since Conor has beaten high-end opposition. I just think the sense of utmost urgency, combined with the depreciating state of Chandler could combine to make it so he has a pretty good chance.

Bet your UFC predictions for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you enter bonus code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!