UFC 302 Predictions: Makhachev vs. Poirier
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Picks
When: Saturday, June 1, 2024
Where: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
TV: PPV
UFC 302 features a thrilling card of fights from Newark, New Jersey, on Saturday. Headlining the card will be UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev, looking to add another nugget to his pound-for-pound claim, as he takes on former interim champion and longtime 155-pound standout Dustin Poirier. Will Makhachev continue to be the dominant force he has been up until this point, or can the veteran Poirier come up with something to spring the upset? Let’s break it down!
Fight Analysis
Islam Makhachev, 25-1 (5 KOs, 11 Submissions), (-650) vs. Dustin Poirier, 30-8 (15 KOs, 8 Submissions), (+450)
The UFC Lightweight Title will be up for grabs when reigning champion Islam Makhachev defends his belt for the third time against the decorated contender Dustin Poirier. At 32, three years younger than Poirier, the champion has made quite an impression since graduating into the highest reaches of the lightweight division—a dominant submission win to earn the title over Charles Oliveira, followed by two wins over future Hall of Famer Alexander Volkanovski. His last fight in October, a first-round KO in a rematch over the durable Volkanovski, underlined what a dangerous proposition he is at 155 pounds.
After a near-decade run atop of the lightweight division that was jam-packed with big wins, it appeared Poirier was beginning to lose his edge a bit. That’s no insult to him, being that his shelf-life surpassed that of most. Still, with two losses in his last three bouts heading into a fight with Benoit Saint Denis in March, Poirier not only failed to win the lightweight belt, but was stopped in both fights. The end appeared to be near, especially as Saint Denis looked to take control early, before Poirier rallied, won the fight by KO, and breathed some much-needed wind into his sagging sails.
Poirier deserves a lot of credit for righting the ship against an up-and-comer in March. You can’t dismiss a guy like that whose list of big wins reads like a who’s-who in the UFC lightweight division over the past decade, and counting him out before would have come at a cost. After he lost to Khabib, he came back with two TKOs over Conor McGregor and after this latest rough patch, he was able to get the TKO over a fighter many favored to beat him.
At the same time, we need to be realistic about where Poirier stands in the grand scheme of things. This is a fighter who thrived in the lightweight division at a time when you might look back and call it one of the toughest eras at 155 pounds. When he was at his best and on that long winning streak, he still was never quite able to get over the hump. He has all those big wins, a lot of big paydays, and a bunch of cards he headlined where he came out on top—all while never quite being the best 155-pounder in the world. Granted, that came at a time when Khabib Nurmagomedov reigned undefeated. But with subsequent stoppage losses to Oliveira and Justin Gaethje, he wasn’t able to get over the hump in the post-Khabib era either.
Now, at a time in his career when winning isn’t as automatic as it was before, you’d be asking him do now what he couldn’t do then. And you’re asking him to do it at an advanced age against a guy who hasn’t lost in 9 years and has gone all those fights without coming all that close to losing. It’s a giant ask, and I think that’s why you see these betting odds almost seeming a bit disrespectful to Poirier on the surface.
When looking for a case to take against Makhachev, it seems easier on the surface than it really is. One is a list of wins that is pretty skimpy, at least when compared to Poirier. He was taking on lower-level opposition until his last small handful of fights. In essence, his biggest wins are over Charles Oliveira and a fighter in Volkanovski, whose best work is at featherweight. It leads to some thinking Makhachev is unproven at this level—a belief that wouldn’t have made you a cent up until this point.
With Makhachev being like Khabib in his ground-heavy approach, along with his lack of overall flashiness in personality or fighting style, he doesn’t catch people’s imaginations like some other champions have. But this is where it’s important to not confuse entertainment value and merit. Makhachev is the real deal, and what he does well is something that surfaces in the octagon with a scary automaticity.
I think Poirier faces some of the same difficult challenges he had in his unsuccessful challenge of Khabib. Making it perhaps even worse is how much better Makhachev is with his hands, which can make it an even more punishing experience. Poirier deserves all the credit for getting here again, and you can’t help but feel bad that his prime coincided with some of the best to ever do it being titleholders at this weight. And while he can still push aside the challenge of an ambitious whippersnapper, Makhachev might just be a little out of his depth at this point. I’m going with Islam Makhachev in this one.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Islam Makhachev to win by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission at -235 odds on Bovada. There are many prop bets for this fight on Bovada. Out of all of them, this one seemed the safest—for Makhachev to win inside the distance by any of these different routes.