UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo Picks

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo Picks
When: Saturday, May 6, 2023
Where: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
TV: PPV

Fight Analysis:

UFC 288 from Newark features a compelling UFC Bantamweight Title fight, with current champion Aljamain Sterling taking on former champion Henry Cejudo in the main event. Cejudo, a former UFC Champion at flyweight and bantamweight, is making his first octagon appearance in three years. He will be jumping right back into the deep end against Sterling, a prime and peaking champion on a long winning streak. Can Cejudo turn back the clock and pick up where he left off, or will we see continued progress from the current champion?

Aljamain Sterling, 22-3 (3 KOs, 8 Submissions), (-110) vs. Henry Cejudo, 16-2 (8 KOs), (-110)—Odds by Bovada
Aljamain Sterling defends his UFC Bantamweight Championship against former titleholder Henry Cejudo on May 6 in the UFC 288 main event. Cejudo has been out of action for three years, following a highly successful end to his UFC run, winning his last six fights and winning belts in two different divisions. He should have his work cut out against Sterling, whose two title defenses have served to validate his worth as the top 135-pounder in the game. With his last win being a stoppage of TJ Dillashaw, Sterling now turns his attention to another former 135-pound champ in Cejudo. Let’s break it down!

It does feel like a battle of young vs. old, despite Cejudo only being three years older than Sterling at 36. But with Cejudo first winning Olympic Gold in 2008, he’s been around for a while. With wins over Demetrious Johnson and Dillashaw (when he was winning), he has some giant wins. He’s gone to the top of Olympic wrestling at 21 years of age, going on to twice hoist belts in the UFC. He’s a successful fighter who is used to having things go his way. Other than two losses in 2016, he hasn’t tasted defeat, and he was one of the few fighters to go out on top.

Not that it can’t be overcome, but inactivity is never an asset for a fighter. You could say an older fighter could recharge from it, but when facing a guy who has used that same time to take and retain control of the division, it’s hard to not say the inactive fighter is at a disadvantage. And not that Cejudo is some dusty fighter from yesteryear, but in a rapidly-evolving sport like MMA, older-school fighters who take off several years can often find themselves left behind by the sport.

Maybe a few fights ago, Cejudo could be a pick one could make with a clearer head. I tend to think Sterling has grown into his role. Winning the title in somewhat dubious fashion after taking a knee from champion Petr Yan when he was downed, the DQ win made Sterling seem like a paper champion. Sure, he was always a respected fighter, but the thought was that he was fortunate to win the belt from Yan. Sterling was able to quell those doubts in 2022, first with a decision win over Yan in a rematch, followed by the stoppage win over Dillashaw. He hasn’t tasted defeat since 2017 and has some good wins on his resumé over current top 135-pounders. Potential Cejudo backers who think this is a case of the old tiger coming back to reclaim his rightful place from a lame-duck champion in name only could be chasing their tails in this one.

This really tests one’s analytic abilities. It’s hard enough measuring up two fighters who are contemporaries, but to take a long-inactive standout like Cejudo and project how he stands against a current champion is a real challenge. It’s not merely an issue of fathoming each man’s respective abilities, but now you have different factors to throw into the equation. With Sterling, we know more or less what we’re going to get. And even if Cejudo has enjoyed greater exposure in his career and had the bigger fights, it’s hard for Sterling to not inherit some recency-bias simply by being fresher in people’s minds.

Sterling is embracing his role and is simply massive for a bantamweight. He uses his size to lean on guys, take them down, and start working on different things. With his long spidery limbs, he can control guys with a body-triangle. But with Cejudo, he’s not just facing a normal wrestler-type. He’s taking on one of the best in terms of translating extreme wrestling skill with MMA fighting. One needs to fathom the levels of preparation that an Olympic champion is capable of providing when assessing Cejudo, a man who will identify one weakness in an opponent and work tirelessly to perfect what would best exploit that.

Inactivity is not a good thing. And when a fighter like Cejudo turns off that pilot light, it can be harder than some think to turn it on again. Sterling is also an easy guy to underrate. He doesn’t have a string of eye-catching finishes, he’s not a highlight machine, and he’s just an underrated technician who knows how to cultivate victory. But Cejudo is one of the sport’s more-thoughtful fighters, and combined with otherworldly discipline, I expect his mind game to be on-point, leaving only the physical as an outstanding concern. And after a long break, while still being relatively young, I think he has enough left in the tank to get it done against Sterling. I’ll take Henry Cejudo in this one.

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Henry Cejudo at -110 betting odds. It’s never easy to pick a fighter coming out of moth balls. But an even quote on both fighters, despite Cejudo being inactive so long, speaks volumes. I think there is a higher overall quality to Cejudo, and if he isn’t diminished by age and inactivity, there’s no reason it shouldn’t show on the 6th.