Pantoja vs. Asakura: UFC 310 Betting Analysis & Prediction

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura Picks

When: Saturday, December 7, 2024

Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

TV: PPV

UFC 310 features defending UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre Pantoja making the third defense of his belt against Japanese standout Kai Asakura. It’s really an excellent matchup between two veterans, with the Brazilian champion looking to clean out the flyweight division, something he has already partially done. At 34, he has endured a long, hard road to the top. The challenger is more of an X-factor. At 31, Asakura has been one of the more dangerous fighters in the lower-weight divisions, with a slew of KOs on his ledger. In his last nine wins, seven were stoppages by way of strikes, a handful being of a devastating nature. Who do we get behind in this 125-pound battle from Vegas?

Fight Analysis:

Alexandre Pantoja, 28-5 (8 KOs, 10 Submissions), (-240) vs. Kai Asakura, 21-4 (13 KOs, 3 Submissions), (+200)

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Alexandre Pantoja defends his UFC Flyweight Championship against Kai Asakura on December 7. Pantoja has been at this for a long time, turning pro back in 2007, joining the UFC in 2017, and hitting his groove in 2020. He now has six straight wins, mostly against the cream of the crop in UFC’s 125-pound class. While his striking hasn’t yielded a ton of success at this elevated level, it’s still a facet of his game, as he has also shown he can suddenly end fights with submissions while also thriving in protracted back-and-forth battles where he has to go the distance. Perhaps not the flashiest or most well-known fighter to casual fans, Pantoja is really a handful.

The case of Asakura is a unique one across many different levels. For one, he’s getting a shot at the title as an organizational newcomer. It’s his first fight in the UFC and to be in this spot in one’s promotional debut is odd. He isn’t even known as a flyweight, either, with a long run in the bantamweight division, even if he did start at this weight. A real challenge exists here in trying to really gauge his level of difficulty participating at 135 pounds in the Rizin organization, where he has been plying his trade for the last seven years.

On one hand, Asakura’s run in Rizin has been good while falling short of being dominant. In the lower weight classes, however, the divide is less clear than it is in the higher divisions in terms of the UFC being the end-all/be-all. A long-neglected weight class by the UFC, it’s never been altogether clear who the best flyweights are once you get past the top few guys. And to top it off, Asakura isn’t even a flyweight, really. So how does a run against Rizin’s top bantamweights stack up against Pantoja’s UFC flyweight takeover? Even if I go out of my way to not be myopic and disregard the things that aren’t in plain view, I’d suspect Pantoja’s run is more impressive.

Nevertheless, Asakura is a handful. Coming down for a fight of this stature presents concerns, but if he can pare down to 125 responsibly, he has great size for this division and several inches on the champion. He is a tenacious, violent, and multi-faceted striker who comes raining in with punches to the head and the body, along with volleys of kicks and knees. When he has his man hurt, he knows how to close the show. He moves very quickly and is difficult to grab a hold of, fighting with a lot of energy and movement. If he achieves a top position, he can also dish out some vicious ground-and-pound.

I don’t think talent is the issue with Asakura. It’s the conditions. He is facing the best 125-pounder in the world at a weight he hasn’t been at in years. It will be taking place on a continent in which he’s never fought. He hasn’t fought this year and is more inactive than the champion. Some of the strikes he has ended fights within the more-liberal MMA circles of Japan aren’t allowed in the UFC. He has been fighting almost exclusively domestic opposition in Japan, while Pantoja is taking on guys from all over the world. He is also transitioning from a ring to a cage. It’s a lot of newness for the incoming challenger.

It’s not difficult to see the pro-Asakura stance heading into this. It’s not like Pantoja has been so impressive that he’s unassailable. Asakura could help usher in a new era and open things up to the UFC in Japan if their best fighters start seeing this as a viable option. Maybe that’s even something the UFC would like to see happen, as Pantoja is certainly not an irreplaceable piece as flyweight champion.

I just think there are so many new things Asakura will already be dealing with in this fight, and that’s before even getting into what his opponent brings to the table. Pantoja is exceedingly quick and slick, capable of snaking in submissions from any angle. He can be dominant on the ground and does some things there that Asakura has likely not seen in abundance. And while his strikes have been muted at this level in spots, Asakura has been KO’d three times, should the opportunity arise. I’d be a little worried about monkey business if this is close and goes to the cards, but I think Pantoja gets through this. I’ll go with the champion

My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Alexandre Pantoja to win at -240 betting odds. Asakura could be a factor in the UFC, but this is a tough entrance-exam, facing a champion who has gotten on a little roll lately. While exceedingly dangerous, Asakura could find the going to get rough should his initial strikes not make a dent.

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