Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez Betting Predictions
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Picks
When: Saturday, July 8, 2023
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV
Fight Analysis:
UFC 290 is another one of these big Vegas cards that should draw considerable interest. Topping the bill is the excellent UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski making his fifth title defense against longtime contender and top-ranked challenger Yair Rodriguez. It has been a circuitous route to this title shot for Rodriguez, who looks to make the most of a long-awaited opportunity, but standing in his way is one of the best 145-pounders in history in Volkanovski. Let’s break down what should be a memorable main event in UFC 290!
Alexander Volkanovski, 25-2 (12 KOs, 3 Submissions), (-450) vs. Yair Rodriguez, 15-3 (5 KOs, 4 Submissions), (+340)
Alexander Volkanovski defends his UFC Featherweight Title against Yair Rodriguez in the UFC 290 main event from T-Mobile Arena on July 8. After a failed try at the lightweight title against Islam Makhachev in February that ended Volkanovski’s massive 21-fight winning streak, the Aussie champion returns to his stomping grounds at featherweight. But with the 30-year-old Rodriguez he has a major talent standing in front of him, a tough challenge indeed. Can Volkanovski re-affirm his supremacy at 145 pounds, or will we usher in a new era?
I’d hesitate before using Volkanovski’s loss against Makhachev as ammo against him. Makhachev is the real deal, and moving up in weight to take on a fighter like that is a tall order. Considering that Volkanovski did nothing to disgrace himself while performing capably in a distance fight, the wise course of action might be to write that one off. Sure, he’s 34, four years older than Rodriguez, but there haven’t been abundant signs of depreciation. With three wins over Max Holloway, along with triumphs over the likes of the Korean Zombie and Brian Ortega, he’s the clear top dog at 145.
Rodriguez failing to beat Holloway a few fights ago might be a damning indictment to some in light of Volkanovski’s three wins over the former longtime titleholder. That type of arithmetic oftentimes leads us astray when breaking down MMA fights, as results are dictated more by styles than just an overall scale of excellence. Nevertheless, there are aspects of Rodriguez’ UFC tenure and resumé that are troubling and likely account for the Mexican standout being such a pronounced underdog. Rodriguez is, in fact, a strange study.
Having been beating contenders for the better part of a decade, Rodriguez’s career trajectory has been bizarre. Since his more-formative years, he hasn’t been really able to get on a roll, taking losses before really getting on a winning streak. Some might wonder why his record is so skimpy for such a longtime-tenured UFC fighter. At one point, he was thrown out of the UFC for turning down fights. He never seemed to be an organizational darling, continuing to turn down fights, dealing with injuries, and then faced with a PED suspension. It has all served to slow down the career of what is really an exciting and dynamic performer.
Rodriguez will still be carrying a lot of talent and ability into the octagon on July 8. Those banking on his uneven trajectory, how Volkanovski thrice beat the last man to beat Rodriguez, or the image of the challenger as a head-case might fail to account for his depth as a fighter. He’s an extremely dangerous and angular featherweight. He has an almost acrobatic style, with kicks coming from all angles with extreme quickness and agility. And while he has absorbed some setbacks, he has also shown an ability to hang in there when it gets tough, oftentimes sponging his opponents’ power without adverse effects. He has a style all onto his own, making it hard to prepare to fight him.
Volkanovski is so good, though. As a former rugby player who was over 200 pounds, at 145 pounds, he is dense and compact, ridiculously strong, very quick, and exceptionally tricky. He throws a lot of feints out there, as he often has his opponents growing very reactive. And he’s a hard man to wrangle, as he is built like a rock. He’s just very difficult to fight and so compact while also having what might be the best cardio in the history of the division. He never seems to get tired. And this kind of steadiness and reliability is a big part of why he’s the large betting favorite over such a talented opponent. It is, in fact, a bit strange for an interim champion like Rodriguez, who is such an X-factor with his talent, to be this big of an underdog against a guy in Volkanovski who is coming off a loss. But such is the professionalism and bankability of the champion at 145 pounds, a division in which Volkanovski is undefeated.
One cannot deny the underdog appeal of Rodriguez. The value in this equation might be on his side. There have been far less-fancied challengers with fewer credentials who ended up becoming the man. Volkanovski is now in his mid-thirties, fighting in his seventh title fight. This is typically a time when one can start to see diminishing returns, and he is coming off a loss, his first in a decade. But something tells me there is an overall solidness and reliability to Volkanovski that will be hard for Rodriguez to crack. I’m taking the champion in this one.
My Pick to Win: I’m betting on Alexander Volkanovski at -450 betting odds. A dangerous fight to be sure; Rodriguez is a guy who could snake in a fight-changing shot. I just see Rodriguez’s tactics not playing well off of what Volkanovski brings to the table. And if the champion comes out rolling, there’s a chance he runs right over Rodriguez.
