2019 Oscar Picks and Sportsbook Odds
91st Academy Awards Sportsbook Odds
Date/Time: Sunday, February 24th, 2019 8:00 PM EST
Where: Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, CA
TV: ABC
By: Mike M., Entertainment Handicapper, Predictem.com
With the Academy Awards just days away, below is a rundown of each of the nominees up for the four main acting awards along with the candidates for tops in Best Picture. Sportsbook Odds listed below are provided by Bovada Sportsbooks. However, check the best sportsbooks at the time of placing your bet to make sure you are using a betting site with the best odds or a combination of best bonuses and odds. A bonus can drastically increase your ROI and thereby change your odds for a given bet.
BEST ACTOR
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Odds: -300
Past Nominations: None
Past Wins: None
Trends: The last ten times the SAG, Golden Globe and Critic’s Choice Best Actor awards all went to the same person, said actor has gone on to win the Oscar as well. Malek has already won all three of those awards.
TV show to consider: BoJack Horseman, Season one only of Mr. Robot.
Up Next: The voice of Chee-Chee in The Voyage of Dr. Dolittle.
Christian Bale, Vice
Odds: +200
Past Nominations (3): Best Supporting Actor-The Fighter (2010), Best Actor- American Hustle (2013), Best Supporting Actor: The Big Short (2015)
Past Wins (1): Best Supporting Actor-The Fighter (2010)
Random: His first lead role was as Jack Kelly in the movie Newsies.
Other movies/shows to watch-Any of his Batman movies, American Psycho, The Prestige, 3:10 to Yuma.
Up Next: Ford vs. Ferrari, based on the true story behind Ford and Ferrari’s battle win the Le Mans in 1966.
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Odds: +1400
Past Nominations (3): Best Actor-Silver Linings Playbook(2012), Best Supporting Actor-American Hustle (2013), Best Actor-American Sniper (2014)
Past Wins: None
Random: Missed his college graduation from Georgetown to film Wet Hot American Summer, which is not only a great movie but also a great TV show as well.
Other movies/TV shows to watch: Wedding Crashers, The Hangover (1st one only), War Dogs.Up Next-Atlantic Wall, a D-Day war story, and Bernstein, a biopic about Leonard Bernstein.
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Odds: (+1800)
Past Nominations (2): Best Actor: Eastern Promises (2007), Captain Fantastic (2016)
Past Wins: None
Random: Made his onscreen debut in the Amish thriller Witness.
Other movies/TV shows to watch: Carlito’s Way, Crimson Tide, any Lord of the Rings.
Up Next: The lead role in Unabomb as an FBI agent hunting for Ted Kaczynski.
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Odds: +3000
Past Nominations (3): Best Supporting Actor-Platoon (1986), Best Supporting Actor-Shadow of the Vampire (2000), Best Supporting Actor – The Florida Project (2017)
Past Wins: None
Random: In three movies between 1986 and 1989 that were nominated for Best Picture, Mississippi Burning, Born on the Fourth of July and Platoon, with the latter the only one to go on to win the award.
Random Part 2: In a six month span between 1996 & 1997, Dafoe was part of the cast of a one movie that won the award for Best Picture (The English Patient) and another nominated for the Golden Raspberry (Speed 2), which is given each annually to worst film of the year.Other movies/TV shows to watch- Clear and Present Danger, Fantastic Mr. Fox, John Wick
Up Next: The Lighthouse, as a lighthouse keeper living in Maine during the early 1900s.
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, The Wife
Bovada Odds: -500
Past Nominations (6): Best Supporting Actress – The World According to Garp (1982), Best Supporting Actress – The Big Chill(1983), Best Supporting Actress- The Natural (1984), Best Actress- Fatal Attraction(1987), Best Actress- Dangerous Liaisons(1988), Best Actress- Albert Nobbs (2011)
Past Wins: None
Trends: The same performer has won the SAG and Golden Globe award for Best Actress for the past six straight years, and in all six of those they also went on to win the Academy Award as well. Close has already won the SAG and Golden Globe awards for Best Actress.
Random: Earned Oscar nominations for the first two movies she ever worked on, The World According to Garpand The Big Chill.
Up Next: A possible second season of the Netflix animated show 3 Below: Tales of Arcadia.
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Odds: (+400)
Past Nominations: None
Past Wins: None
Trends: One of the winners of the Golden Globe for Best Actress has gone on to win the Academy Award for Best Actress the last 16 years in a row. Colman won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy back in early January.
Random: Has already won 30 acting awards for her performance in The Favourite.
Other movie to watch: Hot Fuzz, the follow up to the hilarious zombie comedy Shaun of the Dead.
Up Next: The fourth season of TV series The Crown.
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Odds: (+800)
Past Nominations: None
Past Wins: None
Random- Her first acting job was an uncredited role on the Sopranos Girl at Swimming Pool #2 back in 2001.
Other TV/movies to consider- The Simpsons, Muppets Most Wanted.Up Next-More music, no movies on the horizon.
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Odds: +3300
Past Nominations (1): Best Supporting Actress, Bridesmaids(2011)Past Wins-None
Random: Is the favorite to the win the Razzie Award for Worst Actress for her roles in the Happytime Muders and Life of the Party.
Other movies to consider: Go, Identity Thief, The Heat, Spy.Up Next-The Kitchen, as the wife of a New York gangster in 1970s Hell Kitchen that has to taken over her husband’s role after he goes to prison.
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Odds: +3300
Past Nominations: None
Past Wins: None
Random: Roma is Aparicio’s first acting role.Up Next- Nothing on tap.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Odds: -600
Past Nominations (1): Best Supporting Actor- Moonlight (2016)
Past Wins (1): Best Supporting Actor- Moonlight (2016)
Trends:The winner of the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor has gone on to win the Oscar in ten of the last eleven years.
Random: The only time that the Globe winner didn’t win the Oscar in the past eleven years was Ali in 2017 for his performance in Moonlight.
Other movies to consider: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, along with the current season of True Detective.
Up Next: No movies on deck.
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Odds:+450
Past Nominations: None
Past Wins: None
Random: Grant is allergic to alcohol.Other movies/TV to consider- Logan, Game of Thrones. Movies definitely not to consider – Hudson Hawk, Spice World, Garfield 2: A Tail of Two Kitties.
Up Next-Star Wars: Episode IX
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Odds: +1000
Past Nominations: None
Past Wins: None
Random: In 2015 was inducted into the International Mustache Hall of Fame.
Other movies to consider: Road House, Tombstone, The Big Lebowski, Thank You for Smoking.
Up Next: The Gettysburg Address, the story of Lincoln’s speech
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Odds: +2500
Past Nominations: None
Past Wins- None
Random: Served in the Marines before acting.Up Next- Star Wars: Episode IX as lead villain Kylo Ren.
Other movies to consider: Lincoln
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Odds: +3000
Past Nominations (1): Best Supporting Actor- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (2017)
Past Wins (1): Best Supporting Actor- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri(2017)
Random: A 1994 Miller Ice beer commercial was the stepping stone to the beginning of his movie career.
Up Next: The Best of Enemies alongside Taraji P Henson in a civil rights drama that takes place in North Carolina 1971.
Other movies to consider: Seven Psychopaths, The Way Way Back.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Odds:-280
Past Nominations: None
Past Wins: None
Trends: The last nine years the SAG and Critic’s Choice awards have gone to the same actress and in all nine instances the same person went on to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. King has already won both the SAG and Critic’s Choice awards this year for her performance in If Beale Street Could Talk.
Random: Made her on screen debut in the movie Boyz n the Hood.
Up Next: The TV show Watchmen and the movie All the Way with You.Other movies/TV to consider- Friday, Enemy of the State, Southland.
Amy Adams, Vice
Odds: (+350)
Past Nominations (5)- Best Supporting Actress-Junebug (2005), Best Supporting Actress- Doubt (2008), Best Supporting Actress- The Fighter (2010), Best Supporting Actress- The Master (2012), Best Actress- American Hustle (2013)
Past Wins: None
Random: Almost quit acting before her breakout rule in Junebug.
Other movies/TV shows to consider: Catch Me If You Can, Talladega Nights
Up Next: The Woman in the Window, about an agoraphobic New Yorker who spies on her neighbors.
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Odds: +1500
Past Nominations (2): Best Supporting Actress: Birdman (2015), Best Actress- La La Land (2016)
Past Wins: Best Actress – La La Land (2016)
Random: Made her on screen debut in Superbad, which is still hilarious twelve years later.
Other movies/TV shows to consider: Zombieland, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping.
Up Next: Two sequels, Zombieland: Double Tapand The Croods 2
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Odds: +1500
Past Nominations (1): Best Supporting Actress – The Constant Gardner (2005)
Past Wins (1): Best Supporting Actress-The Constant Gardner (2005)
Random: Is married to Daniel Craig.Other movies to consider- Enemy at the Gates.
Up Next: No movies scheduled.
Marina De Tavira, Roma
Odds: +3000
Past Nominations: None
Past Wins: None
Random: Star of Mexican theater, film and television.Other movies to consider- I have not seen any movies or TV shows that De Tavira has been in previously.
Up Next: Sundance World Cinema nominee This is Not Berlin.
BEST PICTURE
Roma
Odds: -375
Trends: 63 out of 90 movies in Oscar history have won Best Picture after taking home the award for Best Director. Roma’s Alfonso Cuaron is a heavy favorite to win Best Director. The only thing preventing a Roma win could be the supposed backlash against the film for releasing thru Netflix and not thru the usual big screen process.
Green Book
Odds: +400
Trends: The early favorite to win Best Picture has seen their odds drop of late thanks to not only the family of the Ali’s character coming out against the movie, but also allegations of impropriety against those involved in making the film itself.
The Favourite
Odds: +1500
Trends: It may be third in odds to win Best Picture, but The Favourite is my pick to lead all movies in total Oscar wins with at least three heading their way. With both movies ahead of it in odds experiencing controversy, The Favourite does carry some value at +1500
Bohemian Rhapsody
Odds: +2000
Trends: Only twice in the past seventeen years has the movie that had the winner for Best Actor also win the award for Best Picture. Rami Malek is a strong favorite to win for his portrayal of Freddie Mercury.
A Star is Born
Odds: +2500
Trends: Only four movies have ever won Best Picture in which their directors were not nominated for Best Director. A Star is Born director Bradley Cooper did not receive a nomination in the category.
BlacKkKlansman
Odds: +3300
Trends: From 1928 to 2010, the movie nominated for Best Picture with the highest Rotten Tomatoes score went on to win the award only twice in that 83 year span. Over the past seven years the highest rated movie has taken home the trophy three times. BlacKkKlansman had the highest rating of any movie, just edging out Black Panther and Roma by a percentage point as both had a mark of 96%.
Black Panther
Odds: +3300
Trends: Became the first superhero movie ever to be nominated for Best Picture
Vice
Odds: +7500
Trends: No movie about American politics has ever won Best Picture, with Mr. Smith goes to Washington, All the President’s Men and Lincoln among those coming the closest.
For those involved in Oscar pools, below is a list of all the awards presented and a predicted winner for each:
- Best Actor – Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody.
- Best Actress – Glenn Close, The Wife
- Best Adapted Screenplay – BlacKkKlansman
- Best Animated Feature Film –Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
- Best Animated Short Film –Bao
- Best Cinematography – Roma
- Best Costume Design – The Favourite
- Best Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
- Best Documentary Feature –Free Solo
- Best Documentary Short – Black Sheep
- Best Film Editing – Vice
- Best Foreign Language Film – Roma
- Best Live Action Short Film – Marguerite
- Best Makeup – Vice
- Best Original Score – If Beale Street Could Talk
- Best Original Screenplay – The Favourite
- Best Original Song – Shallow,A Star is Born
- Best Picture – Roma
- Best Production Design – The Favourite
- Best Sound Editing – First Man
- Best Sound Mixing – A Star is Born
- Best Supporting Actor – Mahershala Ali, The Green Book
- Best Supporting Actress – Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
- Best Visual Effects –Avengers: Infinity War
