Portland Timbers vs. Nashville SC Odds & Pick
Portland Timbers (5-6-7, 22 points, 8th place Western Conference) vs. Nashville SC (7-5-5, 26 points, 5th place Western Conference)
When: Sunday, July 3, 8:30 p.m.
Where: Geodis Park, Nashville, Tenn.
TV: ESPN+
Point Spread: Portland +0.5/Philadelphia 0 (BAS – They allow Predictem readers to bet at discounted odds! This in turn lowers your breakeven percentage which is HUGE!)
Moneyline: Portland +280/Nashville -110/Draw +250
Total: Over 2.5 (-120)/Under 2.5 (-115)
Last Time Out:
Portland beat Houston 2-1; Nashville beat D.C. United 3-1.
Previous meeting:
Portland defeated Nashville 1-0 on March 8 at Providence Park in Portland, Ore.
About the Matchup:
Nashville’s been struggling to make its new home into a real home-field advantage, as the Six Strings have gone just 2-1-3 since they opened up their new park. They’ve played very well away from home, collecting 17 points on the road, but their struggles on their home pitch have left them close to the cut line in the Western Conference playoffs.
That’s still a better place to be than Portland, which has found itself caught by Seattle’s annual midseason surge and now sits on the outside of the playoffs looking in with a critical match coming up a week later against the Sounders. But before they get to that matchup, they’ve got to try to get something out of facing Nashville. With the Six Strings struggling, this could be a golden opportunity for Portland to pick up the points they need, but the road has been very unkind to the Timbers. Since beating Vancouver on April 9, they have just three points outside of Oregon.
Scouting Portland:
Playing two halves has been a challenge for Portland, which nearly gave away two points last time out against Houston by allowing the Dynamo to simply fire away at the net for 24 shots. The Timbers don’t tend to generate a ton of shots, but they tend to make their looks at the goal count when they do. They only had ten shots in that game against Houston, but one went in, and they earned a penalty, giving them the edge.
One thing that won’t give Portland the edge is that leading scorer Bill Tuiloma will sit out this game after picking up a red card in the win against the Dynamo, putting more pressure on Sebastian Blanco to find the net. He’s scored in back-to-back games for the Timbers, but he also leads Portland with six assists on the year, meaning that someone else has to create some chances. With the Timbers conceding 1.5 goals per match, they’re likely to give up a few chances that Nashville can take advantage of; they’ve got to make sure they keep the offense rolling.
Scouting Nashville:
Nashville was the master of the draw last year; now they’re the master of blowing winnable games at home. The Six Strings have been somewhat leaky at the back this season, having given up a goal in nine of their past ten matches across all competitions, and they’ve just found new ways to give up points when playing at home. For whatever reason, Nashville just doesn’t seem comfortable in its home, even though it’s got the largest soccer-specific stadium in MLS.
Getting Hany Mukhtar to keep rolling would go a long way for Nashville to make up for its shortcomings at the back. Mukhtar has five goals in NSC’s past five matches and has scored in two consecutive matches, making the German the first option that Nashville is likely to look for in this spot. But like Blanco, Mukhtar is also the Six Strings’ leading assist man, meaning someone has to give him some help.
Dan’s Best Bets:
Nashville is going to get this figured out at some point, and with Portland playing so poorly on the road, I think that this is going to be the game where it happens. The question is, how aggressive should you be with this play? With Portland finding the net in four straight matches away from home, taking Nashville and both to score at +300 holds a lot of value. With the Six Strings’ defense looking very soft, there’s a lot to like about expecting a Timbers goal in this one.
Portland has mostly been a first-half team, so there’s value in expecting a pair of first-half goals to find the net by taking over 1.5 goals in the first half at +140. Given the Timbers’ propensity to make life difficult on themselves, this might also be a good chance to play a run-of-play bet by taking the team to score first to lose the match at +625.
Dan’s Score Prediction:
I’m not betting against the Portland attack, but I don’t think they’re getting points out of this situation. The defensive struggles on the road are well known, and Nashville needs to get this figured out at home sooner rather than later. I think this is where it happens. I’ll back Nashville to win this 2-1 at +750. Bet your MLS picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 at when you use bonus code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
