Philadelphia Union vs. New England Revolution Picks 7/25/20

Philadelphia Union (Group A runner-up) vs. New England Revolution (Group C runner-up)

When: Saturday, July 25, 10:30 p.m.

Where: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex, Bay Lake, Fla.

TV: ESPN2

Point Spread: Philadelphia 0/New England 0

Moneyline: Philadelphia +150/New England +150/Draw +260

Total: Over 2.5 (-154)/Under 2.5 (+115)

(Soccer lines available at SportsBetting – EXCELLENT live betting platform!)

Last Time Out:

Philadelphia drew 1-1 with Orlando City; New England drew 0-0 with Toronto FC.

Previous meeting:

The sides drew 1-1 on June 26, 2019, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.

About the Matchup:

Welcome to the knockout stage of the MLS Tournament, as from here on out, it’s win or go home. Before we get into the breakdown, it’s important to note that in this stage, if there’s no winner after 90 minutes, the teams will go straight to penalty kicks. However, unless you bet a team specifically to advance (rather than to win), penalty kicks do NOT count as part of your bet. If the match is a tie after regular time, it counts as a tie for betting purposes, so double chances, draw no bets, and the other normal rules of soccer still apply.

With that said, this matchup features two teams who believe themselves to be dark-horse contenders for the Eastern Conference — and that’s even more true now given Atlanta United’s zero-goal pratfall in Group E. With the conference favorites stumbling in Florida, these up-and-coming teams have a genuine chance to make a mark for themselves.

For New England, nothing would be a better sign of the Revolution being back than beating Philadelphia. Over the past four years, the Revolution have been the nail to the Union’s hammer, as Philadelphia has won six of the previous eight meetings between the sides and has lost just one of the teams’ past 10 MLS matchups. To make matters worse for New England, five of Union’s previous seven wins in this series have been won to nil.

But the Revolution believes themselves to be a much better side than they’ve been now that they’ve got Bruce Arena on the sidelines and some quality finishers on the attack. Can New England finally solve Philadelphia and charge into the quarterfinals?

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Scouting Philadelphia:

Playing as the favorite really hasn’t bothered Philadelphia, who has never trailed in this tournament. The Union only finished runner-up in their group on goal differential. Truth be told, they’re probably pretty happy that they didn’t finish ahead of Orlando City because their path to the semifinals won’t include either Seattle or Portland.

What’s made Philadelphia dangerous is that opponents haven’t been able to focus on any one player in the Union attack. Alejandro Bedoya is the main threat for Philadelphia, but he hasn’t scored since the first match of this tournament. It hasn’t mattered, however, because the Union have found goals from three other players and patiently waited to unlock opposing defenses.

That’s something Philadelphia has been able to do because of what it has at the backline. Andre Blake has been one of the strongest keepers in this tournament and almost single-handedly lifted the Union to victory in the opener against New York City. In order for Philadelphia to control New England’s attack, Blake has to be at his best.

Scouting New England:

New England has remade itself under Bruce Arena, and it’s shown as the Revolution managed to get five points from the group stage while scoring just two goals. The problem for New England has been its finishing, which left a little to be desired in the group stage. The Revs have some solid attacking players in Teal Bunbury, Gustavo Bou, and Adam Buska, but they’re going to have to go the rest of this tournament without Carles Gil, who was Bou’s running mate during the Revolution’s surge last season.

Gil didn’t play in the final game against Toronto, and the Revolution’s attack was a bit disheveled without him. Only at the end did New England start to threaten, and even then, it appeared that the Revolution weren’t going to find a goal without a penalty. If the attack is still not on the same page, the Revs will be easy prey for Philly.

Dan’s Best Bets:

Goals are not coming for these teams, and New England’s attack is adjusting on the fly with Gil in a walking boot. That gives a significant advantage to Philadelphia, which honestly didn’t need the help given its dominance against New England. With how the goals just aren’t coming for these teams, I think this could be a very low-scoring match.

As such, I see a world of value in taking the Union to win this match with under 2.5 goals, which is paying at an incredible +525. If you feel a little skittish about that and want insurance against a New England goal, I think you’ll get great value out of taking the Union to win and under 3.5. That’ll still give you a return of +270, and it’ll cover you further if New England gets desperate and allows a goal while it’s pushing for an equalizer.

Neither team has trailed in this tournament, so it’s tough to pick either side to score the first goal, but I’d take Philadelphia to score first in the first half at +150. I think the Union can figure it out early and get an early goal, which allows them to control the match.

Dan’s Score Prediction:

Philadelphia has owned this series, and I think that continues here with New England struggling to find its footing on the attack. The Revolution will get this figured out eventually, but for the time being, Philadelphia is the more valuable side and should progress in this tournament. I’ll take the Union to post a 2-0 win at +1300. For the best soccer odds (pays more) on the internet, check out 5Dimes!