Orlando City vs. Philadelphia Union Best Bets

Orlando City (10-6-8, 38 points, 3rd place Eastern Conference) vs. Philadelphia Union (8-8-7, 32 points, 9th place Eastern Conference)
When: Sunday, September 19, 4 p.m.
Where: Subaru Park, Chester Pa.
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Orlando +1/Philadelphia -1
Moneyline: Orlando +300/Philadelphia -125/Draw +260
Total: Over 2.5 (-160)/Under 2.5 (+120)

Last Time Out

: Orlando lost 4-2 to Montreal; Philadelphia lost 2-0 to Club America.

Previous meeting:

Orlando City defeated Philadelphia 2-1 on July 22 at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Fla.

About the Matchup:

Orlando is now facing a matchup that it absolutely has to get something out of, while Philadelphia comes in dealing with fatigue after losing a tough tie in the CONCACAF Champions League. The reason this matchup is so critical for Orlando is because of what the Lions have coming up, as they’ll be following this by visiting the two teams above them, New England and Nashville. Getting a point would be huge for keeping the Lions in the top half of the playoff chase, as Orlando is only six points ahead of the cutline despite sitting third

For Philadelphia, now that the dream of winning CCL is over, they’ve got to find a way to pick things up over the final two months of the season. The Union still have a chance to get points, especially now that they’re no longer dealing with added fixture congestion, but they’re running out of time and not playing particularly well at the moment. If they can’t get a result out of this one, it’s going to be difficult for them to make a run at the back door of the Eastern playoffs.

Scouting Orlando:

Getting a win would be huge for Orlando because they haven’t gotten a win away from home since June 25 in Miami and haven’t won anything outside the Sunshine State since May 16, when they shut out D.C. United. Orlando’s been getting results away from home, as it’s picked up a point on two of its past three trips, but the Lions have been earning draws, not wins. The key for the Lions is improving the defense, as they’ve really been leaking in September. After conceding just three goals in five matches in August, the Lions have shipped nine goals against Columbus, Atlanta, and Montreal, not exactly a murderer’s row of offenses. Having to play without Nani and Andres Parea, who both took red cards against Montreal in their most recent game, won’t help matters. Orlando is reeling right now, and this team could have some real problems here.

Scouting Philadelphia:

There isn’t a lot to like here with Philadelphia. The Union have been failing to put up decent attacks despite having plenty of possession, as they’ve won the possession battle in four straight contests but earned just one point out of those matches. To make matters worse, they’re not scoring at all, as the only goal they’ve scored in their past three games was scored by D.C. United into its own net.

Against Montreal, the shooting was simply abysmal, as the Union had 13 shots at the net but managed to put just one on the net. Of course, MLS being what it is, that was the one that went in, but that’s also the last goal the Union’s offense scored. Philadelphia’s attack proved so inept that it had 30 minutes up a man against New England but couldn’t find a marker.

Dan’s Best Bets:

For me, the best bet is the under, as I think both of these teams might have trouble finding a marker with how they’re performing. Philadelphia has been solid on defense as of late, and Orlando is likely going to go into a shell in hopes of getting a point after losing two starters to red cards. Given that the Lions have managed a result in four of their past five matchups against the Union, I also like Orlando to come out with a point on a double chance at -105. I’m not sure that the Lions can find a winner in this situation, as their attack is a bit of a mess right now, but three of their past four matches against Philadelphia have been a draw, and it’s not like the Union is playing all that well either. Taking the draw at +260 is risky, but with how these teams have looked, it makes some sense.

Dan’s Score Prediction:

On paper, this is a match that Philadelphia has no business losing, and yet we’ve seen the Union botch home games against the likes of ten-man New England and Chicago. With how poorly the Union and Orlando are both playing right now, I think it’s going to be a badly-played match that doesn’t end with a winner. I’ll play for a 1-1 draw at +675.