Minnesota United vs. FC Dallas Odds, Analysis, Free Pick 10/17/22

Minnesota United (14-14-6, 48 points, 6th place Western Conference) vs. FC Dallas (14-9-11, 53 points, 3rd place Western Conference)
When: Monday, October 17, 9:30 p.m.
Where: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
TV: FS1

Point Spread: Minnesota +0.5/Dallas -0.5
Moneyline: Minnesota +250/Dallas -110/Draw +290 at BAS
Team to advance: Minnesota +150/Dallas -215
Total: Over 2.5 (-150)/Under 2.5 (+110)

Last Time Out:

Minnesota beat Vancouver 2-0; Dallas handled Sporting Kansas City 2-1.

Previous meeting:

Dallas defeated Minnesota 3-0 on Sept. 3 at Allianz Field in Saint Paul, Minn.

About the Matchup:

These teams won at each other’s grounds this season, so you could make a case that Minnesota has Dallas right where it wants in having to go to Texas for this Monday night matchup. However, that was before the Loons dropped four straight road games and six of their final eight contests to limp into the postseason. None of San Jose, Portland, or Sporting are going to the playoffs, yet all three of them beat Minnesota at home while the Loons were trying to lock up a first-round home game.

And that’s how Minnesota instead ended up going to Dallas, a place where its only win came this year. If that’s the matchup the Loons were trying to get, Minnesota might have miscalculated a bit. Dallas hasn’t lost in Frisco since a July 13 setback to New York City, and the Toros have won five of their past six matches at home with a draw against Real Salt Lake mixed in. But there is a problem in there, and it’s with the Dallas defense. The Toros have allowed four of their past five guests to leave the Metroplex with a goal, even while taking all three points. In fact, nine of Dallas’ final 11 opponents scored a goal, which means markers are fairly likely here.

Scouting Minnesota:

As Robin Lod goes, so goes Minnesota? That’s the thinking after a season where Lod started 11 games at central midfielder, and the Loons won eight of them. If you’ve done the math, that means there were 23 games where Lod didn’t start because of injury or another reason, and Minnesota won just six of those matches. The Finn is one of the most dependable players Minnesota has alongside Emmanuel Reynoso, and when the two are both on the pitch together, Minnesota’s dangerous.

But they haven’t spent much time on the pitch together in the past month, which is why the Loons have gone into their tailspin. Reynoso leads Minnesota with ten goals, but he is at his best when he’s setting someone up to score (he also has 11 assists on the year). Lod and Luis Amarilla need to find space to take advantage of Dallas’ defensive issues.

Scouting Dallas:

What Lod and Reynoso are to Minnesota, Jesus Ferreira is to Dallas. In three of Dallas’ past four home victories, Ferreira has found the mesh at least once, and he’s been Dallas’ first goal scorer in each of those situations. He’s easily Dallas’ Plan A, as he’s put home 18 goals on the season.

And that’s both Dallas’ strong suit and a potential Achilles’ heel: the Toros have three total attackers and really nobody else. Paul Arriola and Alan Velasco are solid backup plans that keep teams from focusing too much attention on Ferreira, but if a defense is able to keep all three under wraps, nobody else really picks up the slack for the Toros. Out of 48 Dallas goals on the year, 34 have come from one of Dallas’ big three, and that’s not always sustainable in playoff soccer.

Dan’s Best Bets:

With Minnesota in very poor form but Dallas not exactly doing its job on defense, Dallas and over 2.5 goals at +175 makes a lot of sense. Both matches between the teams saw three goals scored, and in playoff matches, teams take more chances and open themselves up for more goals.

If you want to get aggressive, Dallas and both teams to score at +250 looks like excellent value as well. With four of five visitors scoring on Dallas in their past five home matches, backing Minnesota for a goal makes sense. The Loons have failed to score in three of four road matches, but they’re also facing a struggling defense this time and seem to be healthy again.

For a goal scorer, Jesus Ferreira does so much for Dallas that taking him for a goal at +110 offers a lot of value. He does often score first, so if you really want an aggressive move, take him to open the scoring at +375. Finally, Dallas has seen an alarming amount of red cards happen in its past several matches. Four of Dallas’ past six matches have seen a team take a red card, and you’ll likely get a lot of value if you can find this bet. If you can get a red card at +600 or better, I’d take a shot on it.

Dan’s Score Prediction:

Dallas appears to be the stronger side, and Minnesota comes into this game in wretched form. The Loons should be better than they’ve shown with Lod back in action, but I think Dallas is the better option.

I’ll take Dallas at 2-1 at +750.