Manchester United vs. Tottenham Hotspur Odds & Picks 6/19/20

Manchester United (12-8-9, 45 points, 5th place) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (11-10-8, 41 points, 8th place)
When: Friday, June 19, 3:15 p.m.
Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV: NBCSN

Point Spread: Manchester United 0/Tottenham 0
Moneyline: Manchester United +140/Tottenham +195/Draw +240
Total: Over 2.5 (-118)/Under 2.5 (-112) (Odds avaiable at BetNow)

Last Time Out:

Manchester United routed Linzer ASK of Austria 5-0 on March 12; Tottenham lost 3-0 to RB Leipzig of Germany on March 10.

Previous meeting:

Manchester United defeated Tottenham 2-1 on December 4 at Old Trafford in Manchester.

About the Matchup:

The pause couldn’t have come at a worse time for Manchester United, which had been playing its best soccer of the season when the season stopped. Now the Red Devils have to get their form back against a Tottenham side that has been struggling mightily with its defense. Spurs have to find a win if they want a chance at the Champions League, but they come into this match having failed to win in six consecutive competitions — and the last game they won was at relegation-threatened Aston Villa.

Scouting Manchester United:

United is starting to feel the pressure that comes with the expectations of Old Trafford, and it’s responded with some of its best soccer. The last time that we saw Manchester United in the Premier League, the Red Devils left no doubt who owns Manchester, seeing off Manchester City in a 2-0 win. The last time United tasted defeat was on January 22 in a 2-0 loss to Burnley, a run of 11 consecutive matches.

That said, offense isn’t really what United has done best in the Premier League. Virtually all of Manchester United’s attacks come from two sources: Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial. Out of 43 United markers, 25 belong to Rashford and Martial, and many don’t come from the run of play. Daniel James is the top assist man for United, and he’s only got six assists on the year. In short, this is a side that gets the job done with defense, not with attacks. If there are more than three goals in a match, things usually don’t go well for United.

Scouting Tottenham Hotspur:

If you like scoring, you’ll love what you see from Spurs. Tottenham is one of the most exciting teams in the Premier League, rarely having trouble finding the net. With 47 goals on the season, only four teams have managed to score more than Spurs — and all four of those teams are on track to play in the Champions League next season.

The problem for Spurs is that its backline can’t stop anyone. Spurs have failed to win in three straight Premier League matches and conceding seven goals in that stretch. When they stepped outside of England, things went no better: RB Leipzig of Germany dropped three on Tottenham to hand Spurs a swift exit from the Champions League.

To get a result, Spurs have to attack, and that means Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min have to be at their best. It’s been a long time coming for Kane, who hasn’t played since New Year’s Day because of injury. But the COVID-19 pause gave the English star time to recover, and that should make the Spurs attack much more dangerous. Kane’s health isn’t 100 percent, but Spurs do expect him to be in the lineup for Friday.

Dan’s Best Bets:

This is a matchup of opposites. United matches usually do not end with goals for both sides. In its past 10 Premier League matches, just one ended with both teams finding the net. That’s a major difference from 2019 when United kept only two clean sheets over the first four months of the season. Four of the past five Manchester United matches have ended with a zero on the board for the other side, so backing a “No” on both teams to score at +105 is a gamble that holds value.

However, Spurs have been a hard side to keep away from the net. Tottenham has scored in 23 matches, and both teams have found the net in 20 of 29 Spurs matches this season. The biggest problem is the Spurs’ defense, so the best play on the board might be United to win and over 2.5 goals, which is paying at +260. Spurs have conceded at least two goals in three of their past four matches, making a three-goal match a reasonable target. Only one of United’s last seven games have seen more than 2.5 goals, but the Red Devils weren’t facing a side that’s as strong on offense and as subpar on defense as Spurs.

Dan’s Score Prediction:

United’s defense is stout, but it’s pretty hard to keep Harry Kane off the scoresheet for 90 minutes, especially

when he’s (likely) playing in his first competitive match in five months. That said, I cannot see Spurs figuring out how to stop United from scoring, and the fact is that United’s been playing much better soccer than Spurs as of late.

I think Kane and company find a hole in the United backline, but that’s the only one they get, and it won’t be enough to get anything out of this match. I’m going to take Manchester United to win this 2-1, a score that’s paying at +875.