Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City Odds & Picks
Columbus Crew (10-7-16, 46 points, 7th place Eastern Conference) vs. Orlando City (13-14-6, 45 points, 8th place Eastern Conference)
When: Sunday, October 9, 2:30 p.m.
Where: Exploria Stadium, Orlando, Fla.
TV: FS1
Point Spread: Columbus +0.5/Orlando -0.5 (Bet your soccer games at reduced odds at BAS Sportsbook! It costs you NOTHING and it trumps any bonus you can get!)
Moneyline: Columbus +230/Orlando +105/Draw +250
Total: Over 2.5 (-140)/Under 2.5 (+100)
Last Time Out:
Columbus drew 2-2 with Charlotte; Orlando lost 4-1 to Inter Miami
Previous meeting:
Orlando defeated Columbus 2-0 on April 16 at Lower.com Field in Columbus, Ohio.
About the Matchup:
Both teams opted to do things the hard way by leaving points on the table in their midweek games, and now they’ll have to simultaneously scoreboard watch and play at the same time on the final day of the MLS regular season. Winning is the simplest path to the playoffs for both of these teams, as victory would secure no lower than the 7th position in the Eastern Conference. But there’s also the presence of Cincinnati, which can completely change the equation. If the Orange and Blue lose their match to D.C. United (which will be played simultaneously with this match), a draw would be good enough to send both Orlando and Columbus to the postseason.
That’s just fine with Columbus, which will be in the playoffs as long as it does not lose to Orlando. Avoiding defeat is exactly how Columbus got itself in this position, as the Crew’s 16 draws has made up almost 1/3 of their point total. Over Columbus’ past ten matches, only three have ended with a winner. Of course, Orlando is the exact opposite, as the Lions have played 12 straight matches without a draw. Lately, that has not worked out in their favor, as they’ve dropped four of their past five matches. However, Orlando has won three of its past four matches at home, and the Lions know that unless they get help from D.C. United (which has been far and away the league’s worst side and has absolutely nothing to play for), only a victory will be enough to put them in the postseason.
Scouting Columbus:
Columbus has a simple problem, and it’s the main reason why they haven’t already wrapped up a playoff spot: they can’t hold leads in stoppage time. In their past three draws against Montreal, Portland, and Charlotte, the Crew held the lead when the fourth official put the amount of stoppage time on the board. Each time, the opponent scored before the final whistle, and the Crew left two points on the table.
In fact, stoppage time goals have just been a way of life for the Crew as of late, as the one match they’ve won in their past six came when they turned the tables on the New York Red Bulls and scored the winner from Derrick Etienne three minutes into stoppage time. The Crew are never out of a match, but at the same time, no lead is ever truly safe with them — exactly the situation bettors don’t want to face.
Scouting Orlando:
There have been a few things you can count on if you’re a fan of Orlando City in recent years. One, when you go to a match at Exploria Stadium, you probably won’t see a draw. Orlando has taken that to an extreme this season, as not one of their 16 home matches has ended in a stalemate. If that happens again here — and again, only a win sends Orlando to the playoffs unless D.C. United beats Cincinnati — the Lions will be the first MLS team in 20 years to play a full season without a draw at home.
Two, the Lions have dominated Columbus when the Crew comes to town. Orlando has won four straight meetings with the Crew at home, and the Lions have been the stronger side in this series for the past three years. Orlando has won six of seven against Columbus and was the last team to beat the Crew in 2020 when Columbus lifted the MLS Cup. In the first meeting, they did it with efficiency from their shots: Orlando took only eight shots and put just three on target, but two of those three hit the mesh for a goal.
Dan’s Best Bets:
With Columbus’ history of allowing draws at the end, I think this is the time to take a dart on the team to score first to lose the match at +550. Unless there’s a goal from D.C., Orlando cannot afford to go into a shell unless it gets the lead, and Columbus is going to press if it falls behind. Orlando might as well be starting a goal down in this situation, so an early Columbus goal is only going to inspire the Lions to push forward to try to save themselves.
I also like the Over to cash here, given that a draw only helps one team. If Cincinnati has a lead on D.C., which will probably happen, both teams will have chances to score in the game’s final moments, no matter what the score is. If Orlando is winning, Columbus will be in an all-out attack. If not, Orlando will be the attacking side. In either case, over 2.5 seems a reasonable play, and I’d even take a shot on over 3.5 at +175.
Finally, if you can find it, take a bet on a goal to be scored in stoppage time. Columbus already has a penchant for both giving up and scoring these goals, and someone is going to be leaving their net unguarded in the match’s final minutes as long as it’s either tied or a one-goal difference. If you can’t find it, go for more goals in the second half at even money.
Dan’s Score Prediction:
These teams played out a pair of 3-2 scorelines last year, and both teams are going to have to go for it unless Cincinnati falls on its face in its matchup. I do not see a D.C. stunner, so I’m going to go with the goals in this situation.
Orlando has been the stronger play throughout this matchup, and the Lions are a better team at home. I’ll take them to win 3-2 at +2000. Bet all your soccer picks free for the rest of the month by scoring a massive 100% real cash bonus when you use promo code PREDICTEM on the special offers page at Everygame Sportsbook after making your first deposit up to $500! EG is the oldest and most trusted bookie on the web! (In business since 1983!)
