Brighton and Hove Albion vs. Leicester City Picks 6/23/20

Brighton and Hove Albion (7-12-11, 32 points, 15th place) vs. Leicester City (16-8-6, 54 points, 3rd place)

When: Tuesday, June 23, 1 p.m.

Where: King Power Stadium, Leicester, United Kingdom

TV: NBCSN

Point Spread: Brighton +1/Leicester City -1

Moneyline: Brighton +400/Leicester City -139/Draw +275

Total: Over 2.5 (-115)/Under 2.5 (-115)

Soccer Odds at the best prices: 5Dimes

Last Time Out:

Brighton defeated Arsenal 2-1 on Saturday; Leicester drew 1-1 with Watford on Saturday.

Previous meeting:

Leicester City handled Brighton 2-0 on Nov. 23 at American Express Community Stadium in Brighton and Hove.

About the Matchup:

Two teams with very different goals come in with vastly different feelings about the final minute of their most recent matches. Leicester thought they had a win over Watford, only to watch it disappear in the final minute of stoppage time, while Brighton stole a 2-1 win over Arsenal by scoring on the last kick of the match.

Leicester sits in third but has struggled to get results as of late, failing to win in four of their past five matches. Brighton could be the opposition the Foxes need, as Leicester has won four of their past five over the Seagulls. But Brighton comes into this match in solid form, having earned a draw in three consecutive road matches. Could this be the time where they finally break through and get a win over a Leicester side that’s struggling to regain the form it showed earlier this year?

Scouting Brighton:

After ten straight matches without a victory, the Seagulls absolutely had to get a win, and that’s precisely what they did against Arsenal. Now, can they replicate that performance away from home? Brighton has played much better on the road in recent matches, drawing their past three away from home, but wins have been few and far between, as the Seagulls have just two away wins on the season.

To break that skid, Brighton’s going to have to get some offense from someone other than Neil Maupay. Maupay has scored in two of Brighton’s past four matches, and other than a Lewis Dunk goal against Arsenal, he’s the only Seagull to put the ball in the net over the previous five games. The saving grace for Brighton has been its defense, which has held each of its past five opponents to a goal or less.

Scouting Leicester City:

If Leicester could put a shot on target against Watford, the Foxes probably would have gotten more out of the match than a 1-1 draw. Besides the one goal, Leicester had 14 other attempts at the Watford net, but only one even forced the Hornets’ keeper to make a save.

That’s just been life for Leicester since the calendar turned to February, as the Foxes have seen their once-reliable offense disappear over the past several matches. Outside of a matchup with Aston Villa and its league-worst defense, Leicester has managed just one goal since Feb. 1.

The main reason for the Foxes’ struggles has been the disappearance of Jamie Vardy. Vardy leads the Premier League with 19 goals, but he’s failed to score in eight of Leicester’s past nine matches. Without Vardy scoring, Leicester doesn’t really have a lot of options, so if he doesn’t solve his issues soon, Leicester could easily lose its hold on a Champions League spot.

Dan’s Best Bets:

If Vardy was scoring the way he was in 2019, this would be an easy spot to pick the Foxes. Not only has Brighton failed to win a road match in 2020, but Leicester has won four of five against Brighton and has scored two goals in all four of its road wins. I still think Leicester has too much for Brighton, and because of both sides’ respective offensive issues, I believe that taking Leicester to win and under 2.5 goals at +290 is an excellent way to play this match. It’s dangerous to pick a low score with Leicester given what Vardy is capable of, but I don’t see the Foxes solving their offensive issues in this match. Brighton’s defense is solid, and they’ve not allowed more than two to Leicester in any of their past five meetings

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If you’re looking to hit an early victory, I’d recommend playing a scoreless first half at +190. In the first 11 Premier League matches since the restart, six of them have featured a scoreless first half, and three more haven’t seen the first goal come until the 40th minute of the match. With how much these teams are struggling to score, a scoreless first half seems like a very likely possibility.

Dan’s Score Prediction:

The long-term history says that Leicester should get two goals out of this match, but the recent history says that Leicester isn’t currently capable of getting two goals out of this match. How this goes depends on Vardy, however, and Vardy has scored in four consecutive meetings against Brighton.

A scorer of Vardy’s capabilities tends to produce in moments like these, and given his history against the Seagulls, I think this is where he gets back on track and puts home his 20th of the season. Given that I expect Vardy to find the net, I’m going to back Leicester to win 2-0 at +700.