Brazil vs. Chile Ellis Park Stadium Johannesburg, South Africa 2:30 PM EST Monday June 28, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Match Odds: Brazil 1.50 / Chile 6.00 / Draw 4.00
Over/Under: 2.5 goals
Moneyline: Brazil -200 / Chile +575 / Draw +275
In a round of 16 match between a couple of teams from South America, Brazil takes on Chile. In the World Cup qualification process Brazil came in first and Chile came in second. Chile is the major underdog in this match and Brazil has won the World Cup 5 times and I put money on them to make it 6, especially since Chile is short-handed.
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Many have though Brazil is not the powerhouse team they have been in the past, but they have played solid even though they are not one of their most dynamic squads. Their defense has played well and they showed what they can do on offense in the Ivory Coast match.
In their last group matches on Friday Chile lost to Spain 2-1 and Brazil played to a 0-0 against Portugal.
Even though Chile lost to Spain they were the dominant team for the first 20 minutes and an error by goalie Claudio Bravo cost them to go down by a goal. They cannot make a costly error against Brazil, as they will take advantage of it. The longer Chile keeps Brazil scoreless the more confident they will get and the more likely it is they can pull off the upset.
Chile may want to take a page from Portugal, who frustrated Brazil by keeping all their men back on defense and looking to score on the counter attack. That worked to a T against Brazil, but Chile is a more attacking team that likes to push forward on offense.
Chile did not played disciplined soccer in their loss to Spain and they have to do so against Brazil, as if there is one team that will make a team pay for mistakes it is they.
Brazil is one of the best teams in the world in the counter-attack and that may spell trouble for Chile, who likes go forward and pressure the opposing offense.
Brazil Recent Form:
6/25/2010 Brazil 0 Portugal 0 (World Cup)
6/20/2010 Brazil 3 Ivory Coast 1 (World Cup)
6/15/2010 Brazil 2 North Korea 1 (World Cup)
Chile Recent Form:
6/25/2010 Chile 1 Spain 2 (World Cup)
6/21/2010 Chile 1 Switzerland 0 (World Cup)
6/16/2010 Chile 1 Honduras (World Cup)
Chile heads into this match at less than full strength, as they will be without 3 starters due to suspension. In the Spain match MF Marco Estrada picked up a red card and DF’s Waldo Ponce and Gary Medel both picked up yellows, which was the second match in a row each had done so. The loss of Ponce and Medel will hurt the Chilean defense and that is the last thing the squad needs.
Brazil will have Kaka back after he sat out the Portugal match due to suspension.
Chile will have to keep Kaka and the Brazil midfield from dominating the time of possession, as if they do not Brazil will have many scoring chances and Chile will not.
Chile plays a very up-tempo style of soccer, but they have to play under control in this match.
Alexis Snchez is the big gun up front for Chile and while he has shown flashes of brilliance he will not score in this match.
Chilean G Claudio Bravo made the costly error in the Spain match and he will have to play the match of his life for Chile to have any chance to win and that will be even tougher now with a depleted defense. He will not be able to keep a clean sheet in this match.
Brazil G Julio Ceasar only has one clean sheet so far in the World Cup, but he has rarely been tested since their defense in front of him is solid. Look for that trend to continue, as Chile will not score in this match.
Jason’s Pick: Chile is an exciting squad, but they are no match for Brazil even when they have a full squad, which they will not for this match. Look for Brazil to dominate the match and take advantage of the scoring chances they get. Brazil will win this game by a score of 2-0 or 3-0 and advance to the quarterfinals.