Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig Picks 6/20/20
Borussia Dortmund (20-6-6, 66 points, 2nd place) vs. RB Leipzig (17-3-12, 63 points, 3rd place)
When: Saturday, June 20, at 9:30 a.m.
Where: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany
TV: FS2
Point Spread: Dortmund 0/RB Leipzig 0
Moneyline: Dortmund +175/Leipzig +130/Draw +270
Total: Over 3.5 (+120)/Under 3.5 (-167) – Odds provided by MyBookie)
Last Time Out:
Dortmund lost 2-0 to Mainz; RB Leipzig drew 2-2 with Fortuna Dusseldorf.
Previous meeting:
The teams drew 3-3 on Dec. 17 at Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund.
About the Matchup:
The world completely turned upside down in the Bundesliga on Wednesday, as Dortmund saw its attack completely disappear at home and fell to a Mainz side that’s been lucky not to be in the relegation zone. RB Leipzig didn’t do much better, as it somehow managed to fritter away a two-goal lead in the 87th minute against Fortuna Dusseldorf, settling for a Bundesliga-leading 12th draw of the season.
That’s made this match a battle for second place, and one that neither side really seems up for. Leipzig just can’t put away its opponents at home, and Dortmund’s usually sharp attack has been MIA ever since the Black and Yellow dropped six on officially-doomed Paderborn. In short, these are two talented teams who are both well out of sorts right now.
Scouting Borussia Dortmund:
Did the fight go out of Dortmund after their chance at the title vanished? Bayern Munich officially wrapped up the title on Tuesday, and the Black and Yellow responded with their worst performance since the restart, showing little in the way of attack against Mainz. The worrying thing is that this isn’t the first time that Dortmund has had problems with pushing things forward. Since the calendar turned to June, Dortmund has scored just twice in three matches.
Prior to the Mainz match, Dortmund’s defense had been its strength, but the back three completely collapsed against the 05ers, looking a step slow and a bit disinterested. Dortmund controlled the possession against Mainz, but only four of their 16 shots even made the Mainz defense work. For whatever reason, the young Dortmund strikers are firing blanks right now, leaving the Black and Yellow’s hold on second place very vulnerable.
Scouting RB Leipzig:
What is it about Red Bull Arena since the restart? Leipzig had no business whatsoever losing a two-goal lead to the likes of Dusseldorf, but that’s precisely what they did in a span of four minutes, making it five consecutive draws at home and six of seven. What makes matters even worse for RB Leipzig is that its past three draws have all come because the back four conceded a goal in the final 10 minutes of the match.
Unlike Dortmund, RB Leipzig is having no problems keeping its strikers producing. They’ve scored at least two goals in five of their past six matches, and the one exception was a 1-1 match with Paderborn, which saw the Red Bulls reduced to 10 men in the first half after Dayot Upamecano’s second yellow card of the game. But by the same token, five of the Red Bulls’ last seven opponents have found the net, and RB Leipzig hasn’t kept a clean sheet at home since Feb. 15 against Werder Bremen.
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Dan’s Best Bets:
With neither side showing its best form, this seems to be an ideal spot for a bet on the draw. At +270, you’re getting pretty solid money on the tie here. However, I think you can do even better. This is the final home match of the year for Leipzig, and 15 of the previous 17 games at Red Bull Arena have seen both sides find the net. Taking both teams to score on a draw is paying at +310, a strong return given how likely it is that both teams put home a goal.
Based on the teams’ recent form, there might be value in a lower scoring match. RB Leipzig has had no problems finding the net, but Dortmund’s defense has been rather solid other than the Mainz match. Playing under 2.5 goals at +145 seems like an excellent way to take advantage of Dortmund’s solid performances at the back and its recent shortcomings in attack.
Dan’s Score Prediction:
Dortmund has been struggling to score in June, but there’s one thing that the Black and Yellow hasn’t done since the restart: lose on the road. In fact, Dortmund has won five consecutive matches away from home, a streak that dates back to Feb. 8.
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Based on the attacking form they’ve shown in the past two matches, I don’t see Dortmund making that six. But I also don’t see them taking a defeat in this situation. RB Leipzig has been the kings of the draw all year long, and I think that’s precisely what’s going to happen here as well. I think a 1-1 score is the way to go at +700.
