Wild Card Best Bet: Packers vs. Cowboys Total Pick

Green Bay Packers (9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (12-5 SU, 10-7 ATS)

NFC Wildcard Playoff Betting Preview

Date/Time: Sunday January 14th, 2024. 4:30 PM (EST)

Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: GB +7.5/DAL -7.5

Moneyline: Pack +280/Pokes -350

Total: 47.5

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Last week, the Green Bay Packers earned a trip to the playoffs with a clutch 17-9 victory over the Chicago Bears. Just three weeks ago, the Packers were 6-8 SU with a mere 15% chance to make the playoffs. However, Green Bay rallied during the final weeks of the season, winning three straight games to make their 4th appearance in the postseason under Head Coach Matt LaFleur. Unfortunately, LaFleur and the Packers’ last three appearances in the postseason have all ended with 1st round losses. As things currently stand, Green Bay will face an uphill challenge to change that trend when they meet the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium as 7.5-point underdogs.

The Cowboys will enter Sunday’s homestand fresh off a 38-10 victory over the Washington Commanders, which helped secure the NFC East crown. I confidently backed the Cowboys in that game despite a hefty 13.5-point betting spread. Despite a strong effort early from Washington, the Cowboys proved to be too strong on both sides of the ball, which led to forced turnovers and another big performance from QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys will need the formula of Prescott/Lamb and strong play from the defense in order to make a deep run in this year’s playoffs. As everyone knows, the Cowboys have consistently disappointed in the playoffs in recent years, but if I am being honest, something feels a little bit different about this 2023 campaign.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

While we could explore various angles for this Sunday’s showdown at AT&T Stadium, let me keep things simple. In order for the Packers to potentially pull off an upset, the Green Bay offense will need to run the football. In the last three weeks, which have all resulted in victories for Green Bay, LaFleur has relied heavily on the running game, with RB Aaron Jones getting 22+ touches in each contest. Personally, I believe LaFleur was forced into this strategy because of the inconsistent play of QB Jordan Love, who has been hot or cold from week to week. That said, LaFleur and Love will want to stay away from the Cowboys’ elite pass rush this week as much as possible.

Dallas has consistently blown out opponents that were vulnerable in pass protection by putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks and forcing turnovers. I don’t believe Green Bay’s offensive line or Love will succeed by testing the Cowboys’ pass rush in obvious passing situations. Therefore, the Packers will need to keep the football on the ground and avoid 3rd and long situations. At times this season, we have seen the Cowboys struggle to stop the run, and that is the clear path for Green Bay to compete this weekend.

With those things stated, Dallas will still have the luxury of the home crowd to keep the defense motivated this week. Additionally, the Cowboys’ offense will also have an equally important matchup as they attempt to take aim at a Green Bay defense that has been strong against the pass, yielding just 206 yards per game to enemy quarterbacks. The Dallas run game with RB Tony Pollard has been a disappointment this year, but the excellent play of QB Dak Prescott has largely overshadowed that. The matchup between CB Jaire Alexander and WR CeeDee Lamb should be exciting to watch, and I believe Dallas will need to get strong efforts from WR Brandin Cooks and TE Jake Ferguson to keep the offense in rhythm.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

• Green Bay is 6-2 SU in the last eight games.
• Green Bay has hit the “over” in six of the last seven games.
• Green Bay is 9-1 SU in the last ten games against Dallas.
• Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in the last six games against Dallas.
• Dallas is 2-4 ATS in the last six games.
• Dallas is 7-2 SU in the last nine games.
• Dallas has hit the “under” in four of the last five games.
• Dallas has hit the “over” in four of the last five games against Green Bay.

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Prediction

Based on the matchup, I feel very confident in the “under” in this spot. Both offenses have big scoring potential, which is the reason the total sits at 47.5 points. However, this matchup favors both defenses in a big way. I expect Green Bay will try to limit the Cowboys’ possessions with the run game, which will also help the “Under” narrative. Either way, I think the “Under” is the best play for this game!

Jay’s Pick: Take the Under 47.5.

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