Week 9 NFL Picks: Chargers vs Browns & Rams vs Seahawks

Sports Betting Picks, Odds, and Analysis for two NFL games:

La Chargers at Cleveland Browns
LA Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Last week I had an easy winner with the Atlanta Falcons and this weekend I have two bets using the same exact methodology and reasoning.

Chargers at the Browns

Record comparisons:
LAC 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Cle 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS

ATS Hm/Rd:
LAC (Rd) 2-2, Cle (Hm) 1-3
Edge to the road team, LAC

PPG offense:
LAC 17.6, Cle 15.5, slight edge LAC

PPG defense:
Lac 13.8, Cle 23, HUGE edge LAC
Not only are the Chargers holding opponents to under two TD’s per game, Cleveland’s giving up 10 points more per game than the Chargers.

And not only are the Chargers the number one scoring defense in the entire NFL but they’re the only team that’s given up less than 100 points in total for the season.
In other words, they’re in first place by a LOT. This does not bode well for a Cleveland team that is last in the AFC North for points scored.

Key personnel matchup:
Cleveland quarterback Jameis Winston vs the Charger’s number one defense

Winston took over as a starting QB last week and in a shocking upset the 1-6 Browns beat the first place Baltimore Ravens 29-24.
Or did they?
They beat them on the scoreboard but they got the come from behind win with just 59 seconds left on the game clock.
And it came in a game where Baltimore (already the worst pass defense in the league) was missing their top two cornerbacks.
Winston threw for 334 yards.
The Ravens are ranked dead last in the league for passing defense, allowing 291 yards per game.
Winston is not going to throw for 300 yards (or even 200) against the 9th ranked Chargers passing defense, surrendering just 193 yards per game. But I bet he will throw an interception. Or two.
The last time Winston started a game was back in 2022.
He won only one of four games.
He averaged 200 yards per game.
He was sacked an average of three times per game.
He had just four touchdowns against five INT’s, which is why he hasn’t started again until last week, when Cleveland QB’s Watson and Thompson-Robinson both went down, giving the third stringer another opportunity.
This week, in his second start, we’ll see the reappearance of the Winston from 2022.
I’m taking the Chargers as the natural order of things is restored with Winston throwing INT’s and the 2-6 Browns losing once again.

Rams at the Seahawks

Record comparisons:
LAR 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
Sea 4-4 SU, 2-5 ATS

ATS Hm/Rd:
LAR (Rd) 0-3, Sea (Hm) 1-4
No edge, the Rams haven’t covered on the road but the Seahawks have lost four of five.

PPG offense:
LAR 20.5, Sea 25.7
Edge Seattle BUT the Rams have been without Cooper Kupp (I don’t know why anyone drafts this guy for their fantasy team, he’s ALWAYS out) and Puka Nacua, their top two receivers.

PPG defense:
LAR 24.8, Sea 23.4, no edge

Los Angeles comes into this game off of two straight wins. Beating the Raiders is no big deal but the game against Minnesota last week was a quality win.

Seattle is heading in the other direction. After starting the season 3-0 the Seahawks have now lost four of their last five. Buffalo, San Fran, and Detroit? Sure, I can see Seattle losing those games, but the New York Giants??!!
NY’s Daniel Jones threw for 257 yards and two touchdowns against Seattle’s defense. Daniel Jones!

Since that game Seattle’s defense gave up 255 yards and three touchdowns to San Fran’s Brock Purdy, 232 yards and one TD to Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins, and 283 yards and two TDS to Buffalo’s Josh Allen. And now they have to face Stafford with a healthy Kupp, and Nacua.

Seattle’s known for having a huge home field advantage due to the decibel-shattering home crowd but Los Angeles went there last year and beat the Seahawks by 27 points. Stafford went 24/38 for 334 yards, without Cooper Kupp. In their second meeting, the Rams got the season sweep, winning 17-16.

Key personnel matchups:
The return of Kupp and Nacua spell trouble for Seattle’s defense, but the Seahawks have a problem on the other side of the ball, too – QB Geno Smith and his offensive line.
Smith has been sacked 21 times this season and when he’s not being sacked he’s scrambling to get away from the pressure.
Adding to his misery this week, his top receivers Lockett and Metcalf are questionable due to injuries. So is his top Tight End, Noah Font, which means the Rams can put their best corners on Smith-Njigba and focus the game plan on stopping RB’s Walker and Charbonnet.

I took the Rams, expecting Geno and the Hawks to continue their losing ways.

In addition to all the stats listed above for these two recommended plays I also have strong stats in support of them from my own unique handicapping methods.
Both teams are in the same exact situation I used with Atlanta last week against Tampa Bay.

Like Tampa Bay, both of my systems for Wrong Favs say Cleveland and Seattle should be the Favorites.

WF1 Hm teams: 5-9, a 64% Fade.

And when I get a match (when both methods choose the same WF) the record is 3-8, a 72% Fade.

That’s two stats above 60% and one above 70%.
And anything over 58% is a play for me.

When to Buy Recommendations

The Los Angeles Chargers opened -3′ but money’s been coming in on Cleveland and LAC are now -1.
I’m waiting to buy this one because the line’s moving in my favor.
I’ll post an update in the Predictem forum with the number I buy it at.

Seattle opened at -3 but is now the Dog at -1′. I can’t get a good feel for this one but I don’t expect to get a better number so I bought the Rams at the current price.

This week’s plays
LAC (wait to buy)
LAR -1′

Recap: 1-0
Record: 6-7.5