Week 8 Pick: Eagles vs. Bills

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)
When: Sunday, October 27th, 2019 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: New Era Field – Buffalo, NY
TV: FOX

Point Spread: PHI +1.5 / BUF -1.5 (Pinnacle)
Total: 43

Takeaways From Week Seven

The Eagles come into this contest on a two-game losing streak that saw Philly’s stock pummel as a result. In their most recent excursion, Philadelphia traveled to divisional rival Dallas for a prime-time clash on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles were nowhere near close to covering as they were wrangled 37-10 despite closing as just a three-point underdog.

Buffalo comes into this contest off a hard-fought win against rival Miami. Despite the Dolphins being branded as the worst team in the NFL, Miami took the fight to Buffalo on its own field. Closing as a 17-point favorite, Buffalo was unable to produce a cover as it defeated Miami by a score of 31-21. It is worth noting that despite the failure to cover, the Bills have been a beast against the spread going 8-2 ATS in their last ten outings.

How the Public is Betting the Philadelphia- Buffalo Game

58% of the consensus like the Bills here as the home favorite. As a result of two-way action, the line remains presently at its opening number of Buffalo at -1.5.

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The Historical

The Bills and Eagles last met in 2015 in Philadelphia, where the Eagles edged out the Bills by a score of 23-20. In doing so, Philadelphia was able to produce a narrow cover when it closed as a one-point favorite.

Betting Trends

The Eagles have won three of the last four meetings between these two sides, dating back to 2003. The Under is 4-1 ATS in the previous five collisions between Buff City and The City of Brotherly Love.

Injury Concerns

Philadelphia Wide Receiver Desean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal tear. His return is up in the air as D-Jax is out indefinitely as he recovers from the injury. His absence has certainly been felt with the lack of a primary deep threat that has resulted in Philadelphia boding a 27th-ranked passing attack, which generates just 228 yards per game through the air.

Why We Like The Eagles To Cover

There is little doubt here that the market is being influenced by what it saw out of Philadelphia last week against Dallas. They looked pitiful, turning the ball over three times and getting routed in Big D. As a whole, Philadelphia has not been kind to takers all season long as they have been sabotaging bankrolls from the opening kick. Lest we forget that bettors were left in a bitter taste in their mouth when Philadelphia was backdoored in their season opener against Washington. Contrarily, Buffalo has been kind to takers this season as they have been cashing backers’ tickets frequently until they were tasked with laying a number that would have been hard for many teams to overcome last week against Miami. Nevertheless, a recency bias is still developing against Philadelphia here in the follow-up for both sides, and that allows us to get the Birds at a value price.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Philadelphia Eagles +110 (Money Line)

I will toss away the point and a half and play this one straight up on the Money Line. Though Buffalo failed to cover last week against the Miami Dolphins, I see the stage being set here for Buffalo to fail once again to produce a cover given how hot they have been overall as of late. The problem is that Buffalo would need to win by a point to still add another peg in the win column while failing to cover. I don’t see that being the case as that half-point is seldom significant in determining an ATS winner. The only way that Philly covers unless lightning strikes are for the Birds to win out outright. It would be the best practice to erase the vig (which reduces our liability by 10%) and enhance our return if we can. Situationally, this scenario allows us to do that. Outside of the rudiments of handicapping acumen, Philly will come into this game with a chip on its shoulder after they were embarrassed last week before a national audience. I suspect the Eagles will come to Buffalo looking to kick tail and take names against one of the AFC’s surprise teams of 2019.