Week 5 Showdown: Saints vs. Patriots – Betting Insights and Expert Pick

New Orleans Saints (2-2 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) at New England Patriots (1-3, 1-3), 10/8/23

Date: October 8, 2023

Time: 1:00 pm ET

Location: Gillette Stadium

TV: CBS

NFL Betting Odds

• Point Spread: NO -1/NE +1
• Total: 40

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Introduction

In a matchup with many uncertainties, the New Orleans Saints (2-2 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) face the New England Patriots (1-3, 1-3) on Sunday, October 8th, 2023, at Gillette Stadium. Both teams are grappling with quarterback issues, making this clash particularly intriguing. New England benched starter Mac Jones last week against Dallas, while New Orleans’ starting quarterback, Derek Carr, is nursing a sore throwing shoulder. This situation could open the door for Jameis Winston and Bailey Zappe to see some action on Sunday.

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 5 NFL betting market initially favored New Orleans as a one-point road favorite for Sunday’s game, with an over/under set at approximately 39 points. Early betting action has shifted the total to 40.

Saints-Patriots NFL Betting Preview

New Orleans’ Struggles

New Orleans is coming off a disappointing 26-9 home loss to Tampa Bay last Sunday. Despite being favored by 4.5 points, the Saints struggled offensively, only managing a field goal on their opening possession. They entered halftime trailing 14-3 and, despite some improvement in the second half, could not mount a comeback. The Buccaneers outgained the Saints 353-197, dominated the rushing game 114-70, and won the turnover battle 3-1.

New England’s Woes

New England is coming off an embarrassing 38-3 loss to Dallas last Sunday. After tying the game at 3-3 late in the first quarter, the Patriots struggled offensively and even allowed the Cowboys to return two Mac Jones turnovers for touchdowns. The Patriots also failed to cover the spread as six-point underdogs.

Personnel and Recent Performance

New Orleans welcomed back RB Alvin Kamara last week from suspension, but his 84 yards on 24 touches didn’t make a significant impact. New England’s season began with a 25-20 loss to Philadelphia, followed by a 24-17 loss to Miami and a 15-10 win over the Jets, although it wasn’t a convincing performance.

Saints-Patriots Recent History

These teams last met two seasons ago, with the Saints securing a 28-13 victory at Foxboro. Jameis Winston was at quarterback for the Saints, while Mac Jones was on the Patriots’ side.

NFL Betting Trends

Through Week 4 of the NFL season:

• Home teams are 29-34 straight up (SU) and 26-33 against the spread (ATS).
• Home underdogs are 8-19 SU and 11-14 ATS.

Totals Report

The unders are 4-0 in Saints games this season, averaging just 35 total points. The unders are 3-1 in Patriots games this season, with an average of 38 points. Through Week 4, unders hold a slight edge with a 34-30 record in the NFL.

Free NFL Betting Pick

While both teams have struggled to establish a running game this season, we anticipate New England winning the ground battle on Sunday. Additionally, while both defenses have shown strength, we give the Patriots a slight edge on that side of the ball. If Coach Belichick decides to make a change with Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, who showed promise in limited action last season, could be a factor. Our pick is the Patriots on Sunday.

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