Week 5 Pick: Chiefs vs. Vikings Betting Predictions

Kansas City Chiefs (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-3 SU, 1-2-1 ATS)
Week 5 NFL
Date/Time: Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 4:25PM EDT
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: CBS

Point Spread: KC -4.5/MIN +4.5 (Bovada – Head and shoulders above the rest! See why here!)
Money Line: Chiefs -235, Vikes +195
Over/Under Total: 53

The Kansas City Chiefs come to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday for a week five showdown with the Minnesota Vikings. The Chiefs took to the road last week, too, posting a narrow 23-20 win over the Jets and fortunate to get out of there with the win. They look for a higher gear this week in Minneapolis, taking on a Vikes squad that finally got into the win column on Sunday, with a 21-13 road win over the Panthers. Who can get it done this week in Minneapolis?

Getting a Lay of the Land

With a defending Super Bowl Champion like the Chiefs, it’s not unusual to see a slow start in their follow-up season. In addition, this isn’t the same KC team that just blasts teams out of the stadium. They’re still capable of massive detonations, but with an offense that has lost some zip, and perhaps a lack of regular season urgency at times, they’re not the same team where you can depend on giant offensive outputs. For what they have, though, they still get an awful lot done. They have Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce, and then basically what amounts to a bunch of role guys, players who might deliver one week and vanish the next. You can’t really fault them on the heels of a Bowl triumph, as these conditions were also present last season. But in spots like this, maybe they’re not as appealing from a betting-standpoint as they were a few years ago.

Minnesota does have that star-power on offense, but haven’t seen it resonate until last week when they still had to come from behind against the Panthers with an 0-4 record in the offing. We’ve seen turnovers stall their progress, something that again surfaced last week. We’ve seen a defense unable to stop anyone at times, completely undermining the efforts on offense which as a whole, haven’t been that bad. And despite being 1-3 and underdogs at home this week, they seem infinitely more-dangerous than most teams with that record. If they can cut down on the self-sabotage and get their defense to chip in with some key stops and a big play here and there, you can see them actually being a pretty good team.

The Power of the Chiefs System

Despite rampant success, wide publicity, and being a high-profile team, it’s easy to low-rate the Chiefs on a week-to-week basis. You see a great QB, a great TE, and after that, it’s hard to identify real standout elements of the team. Sure, there’s Chris Jones, but the “D” isn’t highly-regarded either. It’s easy for a bettor to look at the Minnesota offense with all their weapons and chalk up the “D” as a wash and emerge with a feeling that the Vikes are a nice high-value choice in this spot. And they might be, but it’s important to truly grasp the scope of what the Chiefs represent. It’s the strength of their coaching and their system—the seven straight division titles, the five straight seasons where they at least made it to the conference title game, and the two Super Bowl titles. An assessment where you’re saying “Well, the Chiefs have these guys, but the Vikings have these guys…” doesn’t really capture the essence of these matchups. In other words, don’t get too caught up in Minnesota maybe having better individual pieces in certain spots. Sure, KC doesn’t have the superstar receiver to go with their top-notch tight end, along with a slew of talented receivers with more defined roles. But what has it amounted to? You have a steady Super Bowl contender in the Chiefs and a team in the Vikings that sometimes make the playoffs and sometimes doesn’t.

Issues for Minnesota This Week?

It has been hard trying to make sense of when to time an offensive detonation for the Vikings. Week one at home against Tampa seemed like a good spot and it led to 17 points. The next week on the road at Philly seemed a tough spot, they come up with 28 points. Then after a 28-24 loss to the Chargers, they come with 21 against the Panthers, seven of those on a defensive score. So, the temptation is that at home against a Chiefs’ team not known for defense, to think this is a spot where we see a Cousins and Jefferson extravaganza. But the Chiefs haven’t allowed over 21 points in any of their four games this season.

Still, this could be a good spot to see what we’ve been waiting to see from Minnesota. The dichotomy of where they will be if they win versus losing this game is massive. A win here gets them to 2-3 with a chance to build following a morale-boosting win over the Super Bowl champions. A loss spits them out at 1-4 and in a world of trouble, already operating with little margin for error with a dozen games remaining. I’d expect this coaching staff, Cousins, and this whole team to rally a little bit in what is already a pivotal game for the Vikings.

Take the Points

It’s difficult to play the urgency-card or to rely on any notions that something is due to happen. But I’d expect the Vikings to summon a level of fighting spirit that might not quite be matched by the Chiefs, riding a three game win streak and coming into town against an opponent with whom they have no real connection or ax to grind, in a back-to-back road game, to boot. I think a gutsy effort from the Vikings could be good enough in this spot to at least keep them close. I’ll take Minnesota and the points.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Minnesota Vikings plus 4.5 points. Bet your Week 5 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $50 to $300 when you enter bonus promo code PREDICTEM at BetUS Sportsbook!