Week 17 NFL ATS Analysis: Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 12/29/24
When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Dec. 29
Where: EverBank Stadium
TV: CBS
Point spread: Tenn +1/Jack -1
Total: 40
In a game only for die-hards, the three-win Jaguars host the three-win Titans for an AFC South bout on Sunday afternoon.
Both these teams are playing with backup quarterbacks these days, and one of them already canned its head coach earlier this season. And the other might want to think about contacting a realtor soon.
These teams just met for a thriller of a game three weeks ago, combining for one touchdown and three field goals.
So, how do we handicap a game like this for our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Odds
The Week 17 NFL betting market opened Jacksonville at -1 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 40. Both figures were holding steady in early betting action.
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Titans Betting Preview
Tennessee totes a four-game losing skid into Sunday after falling at Indianapolis last Sunday 38-30. And that game wasn’t nearly as close as that final score might indicate. The Titans scored the first seven points of the game, then gave up the next 38 before coming up with three scores in garbage time.
Tennessee, which was playing some decent defense up until about a month ago, gave up a ridiculous 335 yards of rushing to the Colts, big chunks at a time.
Four games ago, the Titans gave up 267 yards on the ground and lost to Washington 42-19. Three games ago, Tennessee gave up a 4th-quarter lead and lost to this Jacksonville team 10-6. And two games ago, they fell to Cincinnati 37-27.
At 3-12 overall, the Titans are playing out the string on this season, trying to figure out if they need a new quarterback and/or a new head coach for next season.
Jaguars Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Jaguars fell to 1-7 over their last eight games after losing at Las Vegas last Sunday 19-14. Jacksonville led that game 14-13 through three quarters but fell down with 11 minutes left and could not respond.
The Jags lost the turnover battle 2-0, which cost them two decent scoring chances.
Jacksonville had actually out-gained its three previous opponents; unfortunately, the Jaguars are -7 on the turnover margin over their last four games.
Two weeks ago, Jacksonville lost to the Jets 32-25 on a late New York score. Three weeks ago, the Jags rallied in the fourth quarter to beat this Tennessee team 10-6. Four weeks ago, they lost to Houston 23-20.
At 3-12 overall, Jacksonville is also playing for pride from here on out.
On the injury front, Tennessee lists two starters along the offensive line and three defensive starters as questionable for Sunday, while Jacksonville is still playing without starting QB Lawrence.
By the Numbers
Tennessee is averaging 301 YPG on offense this season and 107 YPG on the ground. Defensively, the Titans are holding opponents to 308 YPG but 130 on the ground.
Jacksonville is averaging 306 YPG on offense, 100 rushing, while allowing 391 YPG (2nd-most in the League), 128 rushing.
Titans-Jaguars Recent History
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five meetings between these teams. As mentioned above, the Jags took the first meeting between these teams this season three weeks ago, 10-6.
Tennessee led that game 6-0 through three quarters, but Jacksonville scored the last 10 points to steal the victory.
Also, that game played way under a total of 41.
NFL Betting Trends
Tennessee is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season in games. Mason Rudolph took most of the snaps at QB, averaging 20 PPG.
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS this season with Mac Jones at QB, averaging 12 PPG.
Tennessee ranks 11th in the League in time of possession at 30:33; Jacksonville ranks dead last at 26:43. Teams that win the TOP battle this season are covering the spread 62 percent of the time.
Totals Report
The overs are 9-5 in Titans games this season, which are averaging 47 total points.
The overs are 8-7 in Jags games, which are averaging 45 points.
Free NFL Betting Pick
Tennessee outplayed Jacksonville three weeks ago; Somehow, they lost the game. Rudolph ain’t great, but we give the Titans the edge in the QB comparison. Also, despite recent efforts, we still give Tennessee the edge with the better defense. We’re taking the Titans on Sunday.
