Week 15 Picks: Broncos vs. Lions 12/16/23

The Denver Broncos come to Ford Field for a week 15 showdown with the Detroit Lions on Saturday. Both teams have a bit of a short week with the Saturday game this week after each played on Sunday. Detroit looks forward to being back home after losing an ugly loss to the Bears on the road last week, 28-13. But for Denver, a 24-7 win over the Chargers gives them six wins in their last seven games. Can they compete in this difficult road spot, or will the Lions get well at home this week? Let’s break it down!

Tough Test for Denver?

Not to belittle what the Broncos have done, climbing up from the mat to get above. 500. But maybe going out of conference on the road to take on a good Detroit team that is irritated about last week and now playing at home where they’re appreciably better is a different level. We see a Detroit team that usually plays far better on offense at home, going against what has been a massively improved Denver defense. But when you get Lions quarterback Jared Goff at home with all his aerial weapons, and take the 1-2 RB punch of Jahmyr Gibbs with David Montgomery and wield it against a Denver run-defense that can be exploited, maybe this is where we see Denver meet their match.

But Not So Fast…

It has to be respected when a team covers as much ground as the Broncos have this season. When we rewind to the time they were giving up 70 points to the Dolphins, remember how things were for them at that point, and compare it to now, where they’re making what is really a phenomenal run to a playoff spot, it warrants respect. A team with the coaching, veteran leadership, and moxie to make that drastic turnaround can’t be minimized. And sure, an improved defense will likely be pushed to a greater extent this week. And their own offense, still a struggling unit at times, will also need to perform to keep pace with this high-powered home Lions team.

The Denver offense is one drawback for this spot. Russell Wilson has been better and a big part of this surge for Denver. Getting a more-reliable top target with Courtland Sutton stepping up has really been helpful, as well, as has been getting RB Javonte Williams in better form, as he gets more distance between himself and his injury last season. It’s not a very dependable unit, but their case gets a big boost in this spot, taking on a Lions’ team not nearly playing as solid on defense as they were earlier in the season when they looked more the part of a really dangerous contender. If Denver can continue seeing their defense perform while seeing their own offense feast on a Detroit “D” that has gone a bit sideways in recent weeks, maybe they can make a run at this on Saturday.

Key Moment for Detroit

While we marvel at Denver’s rise in midseason, going from being in the dumps to making a postseason run, let’s not forget to attribute some of the same sentiment to the Lions. To get this long-suffering franchise up to the ranks of contender is a feat in itself for Dan Campbell, his staff, and his team. But as is usually the case, there are some bumps on the road to respectability, and the Lions are seeing that now, losing two of three to lesser divisional talent like Green Bay and Chicago. To go from 8-2 to 9-4, they’re on the precipice of being one of those fast-starting teams who fades over the course of the season to end up nearly an afterthought when the postseason comes. Avoiding that fate starts this week in a difficult spot against a team that is winning and has its own ax to grind.

I’d expect a full effort from the Lions, with a lot being put into this game. Campbell certainly appreciates what the Broncos have done and will have his team respond accordingly. But the bleeding has to stop, and I’d look for Detroit to be pushing hard to make that happen this week. Helping the cause is an offense that has more vitality at home, with Goff generally better, working behind that good line and slinging it to his weapons, while the run game does its thing. If the defense can re-find its footing and tap back into its big-play appeal, it could make an impact on a Denver offense that is still largely hit-and-miss. But if there is, in fact, something about this Lions’ team that is more off-course than what is suspected, Denver is more than capable of bringing that to bear. This is actually a pretty good litmus test of where the Lions stand heading into the final stretch of the regular season.

Take the Home Favorite

This is a bet where you could find yourself wishing you had ascribed more importance to recent form. Denver is making a midseason comeback that would be incredible if it comes to fruition with a playoff spot. Detroit, meanwhile, is seeing diminishing returns, with various aspects of their game having gone sideways in recent weeks. I think that if looking to time a return to previous form for the Lions, things line up decently for this to be the week, albeit in a difficult spot. I’ll take Detroit in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Detroit Lions minus 4 points.