Week 14 NFL: Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Analysis & Predictions

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The Buffalo Bills come to Arrowhead on Sunday for a big AFC showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City lost on Sunday, falling to 8-4 after a 27-19 loss to the Packers on the road. They return home this week to take on a Bills team that is rested after coming off the bye, which followed a tough 37-34 loss to the Eagles that dropped them to 6-6, making this week 14 battle between these familiar conference foes a pivotal game in the season for Buffalo. Can the Bills get rolling, or will the Chiefs hold down the fort this week at Arrowhead?

Trouble for the Chiefs This Week?

It’s true that Buffalo has given up a lot of production to opposing quarterbacks this season. And we think back to some prior matchups with these two teams that were real shootouts with Patrick Mahomes slinging it all over the field. But this KC offense seems to be a different type of machine this season. The receiver play is not very good. They lack that same danger potential they used to have. And when your top offensive threat is a tight end in his mid-thirties, it might mean you can no longer hang in a shootout context.

It’s a bit unusual to see a defending Super Bowl champion and longtime contender like the Chiefs undergo such an identity transformation. We see them now turning more to running back Isiah Pacheco, with the receiver play so deficient. There will still be heavy doses of Kelce. But we see an offense that by necessity, has to play it a little closer to the vest. And with the surge in form we’ve seen at times from their defense this season, it’s a little bit of a different Kansas City team.

Go-Time for the Bills

It’s a key game in the season for Buffalo, where a win puts wind in their sails for a late-season run, and a loss puts them in a dire spot. In their favor was some extra time off to work out the many kinks that have deposited them into this position. They are catching a version of the Chiefs, who have cooled down a bit. After winning 6 in a row, the Chiefs have alternated wins and losses in their last five games, with a loss to Green Bay last week maybe suggesting more is amiss than we suspect. Maybe being back where they’ve had some high-stakes battles before will ignite something within the Bills this week.

The Buffalo defense has not been able to keep up the form they showed earlier in the season. The Chiefs might not be the thrilling offense they once were. Mahomes’ level of magic decreases without the receivers around him that can help bring that to life. But we still see some not-so-great offenses getting a lot of business done against the Bills, with Buffalo really sinking to some low depths this season. A 29-25 loss to the lowly Pats and falling to Denver at home a few weeks ago stand out amongst the lot. But after a week off and with urgency at an all-time high, maybe this is a week where we get a more serviceable version of the Bills.

Advantages for the Bills

It’s unclear as of press time, but this is a time in the year where conditions can play a role at Arrowhead. Buffalo being a cold-weather team led by one the better cold-weather arms in the league in Josh Allen doesn’t hurt. A lot of this comes down to which Buffalo team we get. But with the break and the stakes now high, it’s worth noting how well the Bills have been when put in these regular season fixes like they’re in now. Then again, since becoming contenders, they haven’t been in as dire a situation as this is, just from a standings perspective. But their urgency, the bye week, and the potential for this offense to explode make them a team with options, even in this elevated road-conference context.

Buffalo needs to find a way for their superior offensive weaponry to resonate. The KC defense has been better this season, but last week, we saw some cracks in the armor, with Green Bay’s Jordan Love having one of his better days through the air this season. That would mean that Allen, along with his weaponry in receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, along with rising rookie TE Dalton Kincaid, could be in a decent spot this week. It hasn’t been easy to pick on a home Chiefs defense this season. In week one, the Chiefs gave up 21 to the Lions at home, since allowing an average of 14 points a game at Arrowhead. It just puts into perspective the challenges facing the Bills this week, having to take on the defending Super Bowl champs on the road in the first step of their climb back into contention.

Take the Points on the Road Dog

Frankly, it might have been better for Bills backers this week if the Chiefs had just gone ahead and beat the Packers last week. With them returning home after a two-week road trip and coming off a loss, this might not be the ideal time to catch them sleeping. They’ll be looking to get back on track. But the Bills are dealing with a greater motivation—not letting their whole season go down the drain. And I expect them to play accordingly. A rested and fired-up Bills team can still be awfully dangerous, and I see them doing enough to cover the spread on Sunday. I’ll take Buffalo in this one.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Buffalo Bills plus 2.5 points.