Week 13 Picks: Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS)

NFL Week 13

Date/Time: Sunday, December 1, 2019 at 4:25PM EST

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

TV: CBS

Point Spread: OAK +10/KC -10 (MyBookie – 50% Bonus up to $1000 FREE!)

Over/Under Total: 51.5

The Oakland Raiders take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in a big AFC West matchup on Sunday. At 7-4, the 6-5 Raiders are the Chiefs’ main divisional threat this season, and Oakland could climb into the race with a win this week. They aren’t entering this game with much momentum, getting crushed against the Jets on the road on Sunday, 34-3, in an unsightly showing with a lot on the line. They look to rebound in a tough place to play in their second straight road-game at Arrowhead this week. The rested Chiefs, coming off the bye, look to start putting their playoff case together starting now. Before the break, they went into Carson and beat the Chargers, 24-17.

How They Matched Up

A week two pairing between these divisional rivals might not mean all that much by this point. After starting the season with a win each, they met in Oakland, and it was all Chiefs. 28-10, but the Raiders had their moments. Early in the game, with a ten-point lead, things were looking up before the wheels came off for Oakland. Two picks by Derek Carr and a porous secondary that was chewed up by Patrick Mahomes were too much, as the Chiefs cruised home with the road-win and cover. Will the Raiders have a better chance this week? At Arrowhead? Against a rested Chiefs team? After getting their butts kicked by 31 points by a 3-7 Jets team?

Aberration or Did OAK Hit a Wall?

Teams like the Raiders who are trying to form a winning identity will often hit a low valley as the Raiders did in getting pounded by the Jets last week. It was just an odd time to hit a wall. Even if you’re gonna lose to an upstart Jets’ team on the road with a chance to go to 7-4 and become a real threat, that’s one thing. A 34-3 walloping suggests something more ominous like maybe that’s a message that while they’ve made strides this season, they’re still short of playoff-level.

It still doesn’t undo all the good things that led up to that, namely three straight wins that allowed the Raiders to enter the division race. Granted, it didn’t come off last week, and maybe it won’t this week either, but there are things to build on, especially a growing roster of young talent on both sides of the ball. Josh Jacobs has been dynamite at running back, with rookies Maxx Crosby, Clelin Ferrell, and others chiming in. Derek Carr wasn’t great on Sunday, but with over 70% completions, he has done well getting the ball into the hands of Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams. They showed early the first time against the Chiefs that they can score quickly, before strangely falling apart for the rest of the day. Against a KC defense that doesn’t always shine, this could be a better spot for Oakland.

Do the Chiefs Take Off Now?

Maybe the bye week gave the Chiefs some time to help find their groove. We have seen signs of a team bound to explode, without ever quite seeing the Chiefs of 2019. Against a team where they have thrived before, why not now? There are some actual football reasons that explain a dip in form this season—injuries on offense to key guys, a deteriorating run-game, departures on defense and acquisitions not all working out, and an O-line that has under-delivered, just to name a few. But last season, they overcame some of these same things and still managed to shine. After getting back from injury, getting some time to reflect, will defending MVP Mahomes redouble his efforts and start taking over? With Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and other ample weaponry, this Oakland road defense will be up against it.

Raiders Still Suffering On Road

At home, the Raiders have been stronger, galvanized by a home-crowd that will soon see their beloved team part for Las Vegas. But other than a week four win over Indy, they’ve lost every other game, suffering lopsided beatings at the hands of the Vikings, Packers, and Jets. Now after a punishing loss on the road, they pick up and come into a tough place to play in Arrowhead Stadium against a rested Chiefs team, and the scenario isn’t terribly rosy for the Raiders.

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X-Factors

Urgency exists on both sidelines and we saw how poorly the Raiders reacted to it last week. The Chiefs know they face a critical moment in their season, where either the struggling grind continues, or they start putting together their playoff cause. While a loss doesn’t technically eliminate Oakland, it would put a significant dent in their prospects if they were to lose. We also need to be careful to stop looking at the Chiefs as last season’s team. Without a running game and a defense that is even worse at stopping it, the Raiders actually don’t match up that badly.

Take the Road Dog

A lot makes sense about a potential Chiefs spanking in this one. They did it before, the Raiders looked awful last week and are the road again, and a lot of conditions would seem to favor the Chiefs. But I see the Raiders’ run-game manifesting in this game, as their heightened urgency shows on both sides of the ball. The Raiders’ “D” won’t get through this one unscathed, but I see the Raiders finishing what they started last time around with an offense that matches up pretty well with a Chiefs’ defense that is hardly bankable. In a high-stakes divisional game, I picture a well-contested battle with the Raiders keeping this one semi-respectable.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Oakland Raiders plus 10 points. Make Oak a +29 underdog by placing them into a massive 19 point NFL teaser at 5Dimes!