Week 10 NFL Value Bet: Fade the Lions, Back the Texans at Home

by | Last updated Nov 10, 2024 | nfl

C.J. Stroud QB Houston Texans
The surface stats scream Detroit -3.5 here, but dig deeper and you’ll find some troubling regression signals. The Lions’ offense has put up just 225 and 261 yards their last two wins, masking efficiency issues with turnover-fueled victories. Meanwhile, Houston sits at 4-0 at home with quality wins over Buffalo and Indianapolis (twice), quietly building one of the league’s most efficient defensive units (4.8 yards per play allowed, 4th NFL).

Left tackle Taylor Decker’s absence looms large against a Texans defense allowing just a 54.87% completion rate (1st NFL). Yes, Houston loses Will Anderson Jr.’s 7.5 sacks, but this shapes up as a classic spot where season-long offensive numbers (Detroit 32.3 PPG) meet recent reality. Factor in the Texans getting Nico Collins and Tank Dell back alongside a surging Joe Mixon, and we’ve got value on the home dog.

Let’s break down why the numbers point to Houston keeping this tight – or winning outright.

Game Info:
Detroit Lions (7-1) at Houston Texans (6-3)
Date: November 10, 2024
Time: 8:20 PM ET
Venue: NRG Stadium

Current Lines:
Spread: Lions -3.5 (-105)
Total: 50.0
Moneyline: Lions -185 / Texans +155

Get $60 of FREE member picks & predictions

(NO commitments. NO Credit Card. NO Salesman.)

Get $60 Picks Credit

Recent Form

Lions Last Two Games:

  • 225 yards vs Green Bay (W)
  • 261 yards vs Minnesota (W)
  • Wins driven by turnovers and big plays
  • Offensive regression masked by defensive performance

Texans Home Performance:

  • 4-0 at NRG Stadium
  • Quality wins over Bills and Colts (2x)
  • Strong defensive showing in home games

Key Personnel Updates

  • Detroit: LT Taylor Decker out (significant pass protection concern)
  • Houston:
    • Will Anderson Jr. out (team-leading 7.5 sacks)
    • Nico Collins and Tank Dell expected to play [check inactive list]
    • Joe Mixon running well since return (3 games)
    • First time since Week 2 with Collins and Mixon together
More Free NFL Picks: Weekly Betting Predictions >>>

Statistical Matchup

Detroit Offense vs Houston Defense

  • Lions: #1 in points per play (0.531)
  • Lions: 74.89% completion rate (#1)
  • Lions: Recent offensive decline (243 ypg last 2 weeks)
  • Texans: 54.87% opponent completion rate (#1)
  • Texans: 4.8 yards per play allowed (#4)
  • Texans: 33.33% opponent 3rd down conversion (#9)

Critical Efficiency Metrics

  • Lions converting 41.57% on third down (#7)
  • Lions protection issues (7.98% sack rate, #22)
  • Texans 9.48% defensive sack rate (#4)
  • Texans leading NFL in time of possession (55.01%)

Game Flow Analysis

Detroit’s offensive regression is concerning, particularly with Decker out. While Anderson’s absence hurts Houston’s pass rush, their defensive scheme has proven effective at home. The Texans’ returning offensive weapons and control of time of possession suggest they can keep Detroit’s offense off the field while mounting sustained drives.

Key Matchup Factors

  • Detroit’s protection vs Houston’s remaining pass rush packages
  • Lions’ declining offensive output vs Texans’ home field advantage
  • Houston’s strengthened offensive personnel vs recent defensive success
  • Time of possession battle could limit scoring opportunities

The Bottom Line

Score Prediction: Texans 24, Lions 21

Best Bets (Ranked by Confidence) ⭐⭐⭐

  • ⭐⭐⭐ Texans +3.5 (-115)
  • ⭐⭐ Under 50 (-110)
  • ⭐ Texans First Half +2.5

Key Analysis: Detroit’s offensive regression and protection concerns align perfectly with Houston’s home field strength. While Anderson’s absence impacts the pass rush, the Texans’ overall defensive efficiency and offensive health make them attractive as home underdogs. The Lions’ recent offensive output (243 ypg last two weeks) suggests their early-season explosion has cooled, while Houston is getting healthier at key positions. The combination of Detroit’s offensive line issues, Houston’s home field advantage, and the Texans’ ball-control ability points toward both the home underdog and under having value.

NFL Football Picks