Week 1 NFL Clash: Steelers vs. Falcons Predictions & Picks

The Pittsburgh Steelers come to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for a week one battle with the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Both teams are looking to get this season off to a fast start in this sort of out-of-the-way AFC North vs. NFC South showdown in week one. You could say that about every team, but with each squad having a new QB and Atlanta at home with a new coaching staff, urgency is a little higher to hit the ground running. Who should we get behind in week one?

Questions for Pittsburgh

A fundamental question for the purposes of whether this Steelers’ offense can upgrade is the state of quarterback Russell Wilson. And while the magic certainly seemed to be gone during his failed run with the Broncos, perhaps the depths he sunk to with Denver were overstated. He wasn’t in the best spot to win along many different fronts and it wouldn’t be that hard for him to well surpass his recent predecessors at the position for the Steelers. And speaking of hyperbole, the public stock on the Steelers seems to have dipped beyond what their results have shown—17 straight seasons under Mike Tomlin never being under .500, a ten-win season and a playoff berth last year, and three playoff appearances in the last four seasons.

Wilson steps into a situation with some good young pieces around him, guys like WR George Pickens, a good young TE in Pat Freiermuth, a pretty good backfield with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and a lot of other weapons. Justin Fields, who lost the QB battle with Wilson, could be utilized in some way. They added some decent WR help with Van Jefferson, Quez Watkins, rookie Roman Wilson, and Scotty Miller, but other than the two QBs, the offense didn’t really add too much, and maybe another key piece would have been nice.

Wide Sweeping Changes for Atlanta

Atlanta has a revamped coaching staff, with Raheem Morris at the helm. The offense has a new field general with Kirk Cousins behind center and first-round rookie Michael Penix, Jr. waiting in the wings. A young and improving Bijan Robinson at running back and Drake London at receiver offer a strong core of talent. Maybe this staff can get TE Kyle Pitts to come around, while newly-acquired WR Darnell Mooney comes in to offer more of a deep threat. And just like with the Steelers to some degree, the image of the Falcons is a little more-sour than what reality suggests. Three straight 7-10 seasons isn’t good by any means, but after looking at last season where they had dismal QB play and still won 7 games with a bunch of close losses, shouldn’t a big upgrade at the QB position provide a significant boost?

Thoughts to Ponder

Anyone who gets too sold on either team’s winning-narrative should exercise caution. We’ve seen more quarterbacks age well as they get into the latter half of their thirties in recent years, but not all do. Wilson never had a style that you’d associate with great longevity, while Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear and is now 36, a number Wilson will be hitting later in the season. Still, both teams have reasons to be excited.

Cousins is stepping into what could be a good situation. Sure, he doesn’t have the established stars he had at his disposal in Minnesota, but London is one of the more promising young receivers in the league. Pitts still has potential, and maybe putrid QB play stalled his progression, and Robinson could be poised for a big year in his second season. What Cousins probably likes most is this offensive line he inherits. He’s going to need them to hit the ground running against this tough Pittsburgh defensive front, with TJ Watt looking to create menace, something he generally seems to do early in seasons. And on the other side, Steelers’ Alex Highsmith is no picnic.

In other words, while Atlanta is in better shape to handle this matchup than they were last season, it’s still not a favorable pairing, all things considered. Other than the heat coming from the Steelers’ up front, there are guys like Joey Porter, Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick in the back, with newly-added Patrick Queen and a bunch of other hitters on this side of the ball. It’s a tough week one test for any offense.

Don’t Forget the Atlanta “D”

Just as the Steelers defense figures largely into this battle, there’s a flip side to that coin, as Russell Wilson will be working with what is still a thin cast of receivers, going against top Atlanta corner AJ Terrell. And it’s not just him, as the entire secondary is filled with studs. Granted, some options could develop outside of Pickens, like second-year guy Calvin Austin, but with Diontae Johnson gone, they might struggle aerially overall. Combine that with a tough road-spot against one of the best secondaries in the conference, it could spell trouble and leave them relying on a hit-and-miss running game. The front seven for Atlanta is a growing unit, a mix of established vets like Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett and some up-and-comers who started to show last season what they’re capable of producing. This is new head coach Raheem Morris’ area of expertise, and I’d expect them to be ready to go on Sunday.

Take the Points

It’s a tough matchup for the Steelers in a stadium they seldom see against a team with whom they have no real connection. But the newness and urgency of a new season getting started should neutralize that. If anything, I see this as being a little tougher on the Falcons matchup-wise, with a good O-line facing one of its toughest matchups of the season. The Atlanta defense at home against a Steelers offense working in some new pieces, especially at quarterback, could be in pretty good shape. I just see the Steelers’ defense having more of a say, as Wilson and Company get enough done to cover the number and maybe threaten for a win. I’ll take the Steelers.

Loot’s’ Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Pittsburgh Steelers plus 3 points.

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