Washington vs. Tampa Bay Over/Under Pick & Betting Preview

Washington Commanders (12-5 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS)
NFC Wildcard Playoff Betting Preview
Date/Time: Sunday, January 12th, 2025, 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa, FL.
TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: WAS +3/TB -3
Moneyline: WAS +140/TB -165
Total: 50.5

Last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers secured the NFC South with a 27-19 victory over the New Orleans Saints. Despite being nearly two-touchdown favorites, the Buccaneers trailed throughout the majority of the game but managed to pull away from the struggling Saints late in the 2nd half. At 10-7 SU, the Buccaneers are tied for the worst record among the playoff-eligible teams but reluctantly have secured the #4 overall seed thanks to their division title. As a result, the Buccaneers will have the luxury of hosting a playoff match-up this Sunday when they face the Washington Commanders at Raymond James Stadium.

The visiting Commanders have had sort of a Cinderella season in Head Coach Dan Quinn’s first season in Washington. After a 4-13 SU record last year, Quinn has helped turn things around in Washington, but much of the credit should also be given to rookie QB Jayden Daniels, who has had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history. Daniels threw for 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine picks during the regular season and also added another 891 yards on the ground, which led the team in rushing. Daniels’ immediate impact has pushed Washington into the realm as one of the more dangerous offenses in the NFL and, needless to say, has the future looking bright. On Sunday, Washington will look to keep their breakout campaign alive when they go into Tampa as mere 3-point underdogs in a match-up that should produce fireworks!

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

It is safe to say that the Achilles Heel for both of these teams’ chances to make a deep playoff run will likely surround the vulnerability of both defenses. The Buccaneers have been hit hard with injuries on the defensive side of the football and have struggled against mediocre offenses in recent weeks. Despite that fact, QB Baker Mayfield has played relatively well this season despite the loss of WR Chris Godwin earlier in the season. Veteran WR Mike Evans just notched his 11th straight 1,000-yard receiving campaign, and for the first time in years, the Buccaneers appear to have a promising rushing attack with breakout star RB Bucky Irving.

In my opinion, Irving could be the difference maker going into Sunday’s Wildcard match-up due to the fact that Washington has been downright awful against the run allowing nearly 140 yards per game on the ground. Despite the fact that Dan Quinn is known for his defensive mindset, the Commanders simply are not very good on the defensive side of the football especially along the front seven. As a result, it will be interesting to see if the Buccaneers are able to establish the ground game and make things simpler for Mayfield in the passing game.

Depending on how well the Washington defense holds up, the Commanders still have a chance to win this game simply on the ceiling of their offense. As stated before, Daniels has been playing really well in recent weeks and is coming off one of his best performances of the season in the playoff clinching win against Atlanta in week 17. More importantly, Daniels will have the opportunity to attack a Tampa Bay secondary that has deteriorated throughout the season. WR Terry McLaurin and WR Olamide Zaccheaus are likely to have numerous opportunities over the middle of the field on Sunday. If the Commanders can get some help in the run game and avoid turnovers, they should be able to move the football to create scoring opportunities.

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends

• Washington is 5-0 SU in the last five games.
• Washington is 5-2 SU in the last seven games on the road.
• Washington has hit the “over” in 12 of the last 18 games.
• Washington is 2-4 ATS in the last six games against NFC opponents.
• Tampa Bay is 6-3 ATS in the last nine games.
• Tampa Bay has hit the “over” in five of the last six games.
• Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in the last seven games.
• Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in the last 11 games at home against Washington.

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Prediction

I realize the betting total of this game is the highest of the playoff slate. However, I think we have a high probability that this turns into a shootout which puts pressure on the 50-point betting total. Both of these offenses can turn it on against pressure and I believe we are going to see a back and forth game with a ton of scoring opportunities. As a result, I’ll take my chances with the over!

Jay’s Pick: Take the over 50.5!