Washington Redskins (3-7 SU 4-6 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (4-6 SU 6-3-1 ATS) Week 12 NFL CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA, 4:05 PM ET Sunday November 27, 2011 on FOX
by Jason Green, Pro Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: WASH +4/SEA -4
Over/Under Total: 37
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The Seattle Seahawks kept their faint playoff hopes alive with their 2nd win in a row last week and there is a good chance that that they will win their 3rd straight facing a reeling Washington Redskins team that has lost 6 in a row. The Skins have not gotten good play from either of their QB’s that have started this season, but they are really struggling to run the ball with the league 30th ranked rushing offense.
Seattle has been winning because they have been playing solid defense and they are running the ball well. The Seahawks have to run the ball well to win, as they cannot count on Tarvaris Jackson to bail them out, as he has not had a great first season in the Great Northwest to say the least.
In their last games the Redskins lost to the Dallas Cowboys 27-24 in OT and the Seahawks beat the St. Louis Rams 17-7.
Seattle only ranks 24th in the league in passing yards per game and 27th in rushing yards per game. While Marshawn Lynch had his 2-game streak of rushing for over 100 yards last week he scored a rushing TD for his 5th straight game. The Redskins have struggled to stuff the run this season, but they played well last week holding Dallas to only 89 yards on the ground. However, Lynch will rush for over 100 yards in this game and help the Seahawks control the clock.
Jackson has 5 INT and only 1 TD in his last 4 games and while the Redskins’ pass defense gave up 264 passing yards last week to Dallas he will not have a big game facing a decent Washington secondary.
Rex Grossman had a good game last week against the Cowboys passing for 289 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT. He has a decent WR corps and I think he will have a good game facing a Seahawks’ pass defense that ranks 15th in the league.
One of the main reasons the Seahawks beat the Rams is that they came up with 6 sacks and they will get to Grossman a few times, but he will still put up some solid numbers since the Skins will not be able to run the ball.
Last week the Seahawks and their 8th ranked run defense played great against the run holding Rams’ RB Steven Jackson to only 42 yards averaging 2.8 yards per carry after he had rushed for over 125 yards in his previous 3 games. Last week the Redskins only rushed for 60 yards and don’t look for rookie Roy Helu or Ryan Torrain to move the chains with their legs in this NFC match up.
I think this will be a close game and turnovers are key and that is not good news for the Skins, who have had their issues turning the ball over this season.
Betting Trends
On the season the Redskins have an Over/Under record of 3-7 and the Seahawks have an Over/Under record of 5-5.
The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, and have an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against teams with a losing road record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and has an Over record of 8-2 in their last 10 home games.
Jason’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This game is a tough one to call, as I do not think Seattle is that good and the Redskins played a pretty good game facing a hot Cowboys team losing in OT. Still, with the Redskins weak rushing attack and their inability to stop the run added to their turnover woes I think Seattle will win this game and cover the 4-point spread. With the low total in this game I would also take the Over.
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