Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles: NFC Championship Pick & Preview

Washington Commanders (14-5 SU, 12-6-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS)
NFC Championship Betting Preview
Date/Time: Sunday, January 26th, 2025, 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, PA.
TV: FOX

Betting Odds

Point Spread: WAS +6.5/PHI -6.5
Moneyline: WAS +230/PHI -280
Total: 47.5

The NFC Championship will be decided this Sunday between NFC East rivals when the Washington Commanders meet the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Last week, the Eagles earned their bid to the NFC Championship Game courtesy of a 28-22 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. In last week’s victory, RB Saquon Barkley continued his incredible season with another monster performance that resulted in 205 rushing yards with two touchdowns. Barkley has now rushed for 2,329 yards on the season and has a chance to break Terrell Davis’ all-time record of 2,476 yards which includes regular season and playoff stats.

While Barkley’s individual performance this season has been remarkable, the Eagles have racked up 14 victories in the last 15 games and need just one more victory to earn a trip to Super Bowl LIX. However, the team that handed Philadelphia its last loss is the same team that will be standing in the way this Sunday in the form of the Washington Commanders, who are coming off a big upset victory over the Detroit Lions. QB Jayden Daniels is playing at a level that has never been witnessed by a rookie quarterback and Head Coach Dan Quinn has gotten some big performances from the defense recently in the playoffs. Needless to say, the Commanders are this year’s Cinderella Story and the most unlikely contender in this year’s conference championship match-ups.

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Analysis

Both the Commanders and the Eagles split their regular season meetings earlier this year. Philadelphia scored a 26-18 Thursday night victory in week 11 in Philly, but the Commanders found redemption with a 36-33 victory in week 16 at home. The week 16 match-up was truly dramatic because the Commanders coughed up five turnovers and rallied from a 24-7 deficit to earn the victory in a game that clinched Washington’s playoff berth. In that game, QB Jayden Daniels threw for 5 touchdowns (2 picks) in the comeback effort, which, in hindsight, was the start of Washington’s current hot streak.

If Philadelphia can stop Washington’s Cinderella story, it will likely come from riding RB Saquon Barkley yet again. Barkley ran for totals of 146 and 150 in the prior two meetings against the Commanders and has another big-game potential, considering Washington’s vulnerability against the run this season. In recent weeks, the Eagles have rarely deviated from the run-heavy attack and I would expect that to be the case again this Sunday. While we know QB Jalen Hurts, WR AJ Brown and WR Devonta Smith have the talent to make plays in the game, the true test for Philadelphia will be controlling the ground game and keeping Washington’s offense off the field.

While I expect Philadelphia to continue to run the ball well with Barkley in an ideal match-up, Washington has proved to have the firepower to contend with anyone in the league. Not only did the Commanders overcome five turnovers against Philadelphia in week 16, but they also posted a 45 spot in last week’s 45-31 victory over the #1 seed Detroit Lions. This week’s match-up against a strong Philadelphia pass defense will be more challenging, but again, QB Jayden Daniels is playing at such a high level; it’s hard to expect anything less. With that being said, I do think Washington will need some big plays and potential turnovers to get another victory, which is not exactly out of reach by any stretch of the imagination.

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Trends

• The Commanders are 4-1 ATS in the last five games.
• The Commanders are 7-0 SU in the last seven games.
• The Commanders have hit the “over” in 13 of the last 20 games.
• The Commanders are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games against NFC opponents.
• The Eagles are 14-1 SU in the last 15 games.
• The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games.
• The Eagles are 9-0 SU in the last nine games at home.
• The Eagles are 12-4 SU in the last 16 games against Washington.

Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Prediction

I really love the “over” in this game. I believe both offenses clearly have the upper hand in this match-up, and I would expect a lot of scoring opportunities on both sides. The Eagles and Commanders have hit the “over” in 4 of their last five meetings, and I think that is a very confident trend based on the ingredients of this match-up!

Jay’s Pick: Take the over 47.5!