Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals MNF Pick
Date: 9/23/24 (MNF)
Where: Paycor Stadium
Time: 8:15PM ET
TV: ABC/ESPN+
Point Spread: Wash +7.5/Cin -7.5
Total: 46.5
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Line Movement
The line opened with the Bengals as -7.5 and has held strong all week. The over/under opened at 47.5 and has dropped to 46.5.
How the Public is Betting the Commanders/Bengals Game
The action is coming in pretty square, which is expected for an island game like Monday Night Football, with the Bengals receiving 59% of the bets. Surprisingly, the public is favoring the under, which is somewhat baffling considering both teams have poor defenses.
Reasons Why We Should Bet the OVER
The Commanders undoubtedly have the worst defense in football. They gave up 37 points in Week 1 to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is built very similarly to this Bengals squad. Joe Burrow should be able to sling it around the yard to his plus receivers.
Speaking of receivers, Tee Higgins is expected back. I doubt they’ll throw him into the fire for a full complement of snaps, but it shouldn’t matter. The Bengals backups are plenty skilled to keep the ball moving down the field.
The Bengals aren’t that great on defense either. They gave up 26 to the Chiefs last week.
Are the Bengals Good or Bad?
It could be said that the Bengals didn’t play well in Week 1. They struggled to move the ball on the Patriots. This recency bias created a general undertone that the Bengals might be bad this season. Truth-be-told, the Patriots have a pretty good defense. Or at least they did before they suffered a ton of injuries.
Then, the Bengals came back to life to compete against the mighty Chiefs, in which they played pretty well. They shouldn’t have a difficult time moving the ball on the Commanders.
I’m not betting the spread in this game because Cinci’s defense is weak. Laying -7.5 is a shorter version of saying they have to win by two scores. It’s never a good thing to lay that many points with a team who doesn’t play D, so I highly advice against betting the spread in this game. Stick with the total. It’s where the money’s at!
Betting Trends
Commanders games have gone OVER the total in four of their last five road games.
The total has gone over in seven of Washington’s last ten games.
The over has hit in six of the Bungles last eight games.
Kevin West’s Pick to Cover the Spread Both teams have really bad defenses. Both teams can move the ball on each other. I see the combined total points reaching the mid-50’s tonight, so will be hammering the OVER 46.5. Good luck!
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