Washington at Atlanta Odds, Analysis, Free Pick

Washington Commanders (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS)

NFL Football Week 6

Date/Time: Sunday, October 15th, 2023. 1:00 PM (EST)

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium Atlanta, GA

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: WAS +2.5 / ATL -2.5 (Get a 100% bonus with one of our sportsbook bonus codes!)

Moneyline: WASH +120 / Dirty Birds -140

Total: 42

The Atlanta Falcons ended a two-game losing skid last week by securing a close 21-19 victory over the Houston Texans. The victory moved the Falcons to 3-2 SU and kept them in the No. 2 spot in the NFC South, which appears to be a 3-horse race between the Buccaneers, Falcons, and Saints. On Sunday, Atlanta returns home for the 2nd straight week when they host the Washington Commanders inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium. So far this season, the Falcons are a perfect 3-0 at home, and they will look to keep the momentum going against the Commanders.

The visiting Commanders are fresh on the heels of a disappointing Thursday night defeat to the Chicago Bears. The Bears entered that game with a 1-3 SU record and were being criticized heavily by the media for their struggling offensive concerns behind QB Justin Fields. Surprisingly, the Bears shredded the Washington defense as Fields threw for 282 yards with four passing touchdowns in a blowout 40-20 loss. In many ways, the loss shifted focus from Chicago to the current reign of Washington Head Coach Ron Rivera, who has posted a measly 24-30 SU record through his 4th season in Washington. Perhaps more than ever, the hot seat is getting warm for the Rivera campaign as Week 6 approaches.

Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Analysis

After getting carved up by the Chicago offense, the Commanders’ defense will need a rebound effort this week against a run-heavy offense in Atlanta led by running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. To be fair, the Texans bottled up Robinson pretty well last week in a match-up that I thought would yield big results for the Falcons backfield. Instead, Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder had his biggest performance of the season, passing for 329 yards en route to victory. Still, I chalk up the passing success as an anomaly because Ridder has often struggled, and the Falcons remain committed to the ground attack, which will be the focus again this week against a Washington defense that has surrendered 134 yards per game on the ground.

Personally, I believe this match-up will be determined when the Commanders have the football. Washington’s offense has been hit or miss throughout the season, and we have to question what type of performance we will see on Sunday. QB Sam Howell does not appear to be the long-term answer, but he is the only option at the moment. Howell has thrown for six touchdowns and six picks through five games. The Commanders’ best talent is likely in the receiving game with WR Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson; however, there has just not been any consistency in the passing game. RB Brian Robinson Jr has shown flashes of breakout talent, but he is behind a rather poor offensive front. Robinson has just 271 yards through 5 games, so I’m not sure if he provides a clear path to victory either. If we simply go by trends, Washington does not appear to have the match-ups or production to offer much reliability this week. Therefore, they will need to get some help in the form of big plays and/or turnovers.

Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Trends

• Washington is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games.
• Washington is 3-6 SU in the last 9 games.
• Washington has hit the “under” in 13 of the last 20 games.
• Washington is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games on the road.
• Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games.
• Atlanta is 5-0 SU in the last 5 games at home.
• Atlanta has hit the “under” in 9 of the last 11 games.
• Atlanta is just 2-4 ATS in the last 6 games against Washington.

Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Prediction

I don’t really consider either of these teams “good,” but I believe the Falcons have shown the best football in recent weeks and have more paths to victory. Atlanta also appears to play their best football at home under Head Coach Arthur Smith. As a result, I will take the Falcons to get the victory and cover!

Jay’s Pick: Take Atlanta -2.5