Vikings vs. Seahawks Week 16 NFL Picks: Plunder Time in Seattle

Minnesota at Seattle Pick

Seahawks Suspect at Home, 2-6 ATS

This season, the NFC North faces off against the NFC West. Last week I bet on Green Bay to beat Seattle and give the Packers a 4-0 sweep versus the West.
The Pack was laying -2′, and they won by 17.

The Seahawks have now lost to the North’s Packers and Lions.
To avoid the sweep, they’ll need to win one of the last two games left, facing the Vikings and the Bears.
They might win one of them, but there is a slim chance it’ll be the Vikings, so I’m going back to what worked for me last week: a play against Seattle, who not only lost their game but also their position at the top of the division.

It’s panic time for the fallen Seahawks. They have the same record as first-place Los Angeles, but the Rams beat them in their first meeting, so LA holds the tiebreaker edge.
Remaining on the Seahawks schedule is Minnesota, Chicago, and the rematch against the Rams.
At best, it looks like one win and two losses to me.

Minnesota is battling for first place themselves, tied with Detroit at 12-2
But like Seattle, they’re in second place because Detroit holds the tiebreaker right now based on their win over the Vikings 31-29 back in October.

Also, like Seattle, the Vikings have a chance for revenge in their final game of the season when they get their second chance at the Lions. But for that game to be meaningful, they have to win this week.

With 10-4 Green Bay sandwiched between this week’s game at Seattle and their final game at Detroit, Minnesota is in the infamous “Must-Win” situation vs 8-6 Seattle.

“Must win” doesn’t translate to “will win,” but since both teams in this game are in that situation, I’m going to go with the better team and the small spread.

Let’s look at some stats.

The home team, Hawks, are just 3-5 SU in what is usually one of the loudest and toughest stadiums to play at.

Road team Minnesota is doing what comes naturally to Vikings – traveling to far-off lands and plundering the locals – the Vikes are 5-1 SU on the road this season.

From an ATS POV, Seattle is just 2-6 at home, and the Vikings are 3-2-1 on the road.

On offense, Minnesota has an edge, averaging 26.08 points per game to Seattle’s 22.5.
The Vikings also have an edge on defense, giving up just 18.4 PPG to Seattle’s 22.3.

In Sagarin’s rankings, three of the top six teams are from the NFC North. Not a single NFC West team is in the top 10.

Same thing with Massey, a really good Abe Lincoln, and a stellar Jonathan Brewster (someone will get those references, no?) He has three of the top six teams from the NFC North and not a single team from the West in the top 10.

Clearly, the North is a better division.
And just as clearly, the Vikings are the better team.

Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith left last week’s game with injuries in the third quarter. He’s listed as probable for this week, but I don’t mind if he plays against Minnesota, as he was ineffective even before he got KO’d from the GB game.
His stat line was 15-19 for just 149 yards, zero touchdowns, one INT.
His replacement, Sam Howell, was even worse, 5-14 for just 24 yards, zero TDs, and one INT.
I have zero concerns about the QB position on the Seattle side.
I do, however, have a slight reservation on the Minnesota side. On any given Sunday, there’s always the possibility Sam will turn into the Darnold of old – making stupid decisions, missing wide-open receivers, and committing turnovers.
And he’s already on my sh*t list this week because I missed the guaranteed money round in my fantasy league by just three points thanks to Sammy’s subpar performance against the Bears on Monday Night Football.
But the basic stats say to take the Vikes, the short price (-3) says to take the Vikes, and there’s this: like last week, WF2 says the Seahawks should be the Fav. The record for WF2 on home Favs is now 21-35, a solid 62% Fade.

When to Buy Recommendation
Minnesota opened at -1′.
Today, the common number is -3.
It ain’t going to get any better.
This week’s play:
Min -3

Recap: 1-1
Record: 12-15.30

Review: I was 3 seconds away from a push on my Washington bet.
Three seconds.
I was in danger of falling into double jeopardy, but Green Bay saved my day in the afternoon game.