Vikings vs. Seahawks Betting Preview: Loot’s Pick Against the Spread

Minnesota Vikings (12-2 SU, 9-4-1 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 16
Date/Time: Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 4:05PM EST
Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
TV: Fox

The Minnesota Vikings take on the Seattle Seahawks in critical week 16 action from Lumen Field on Sunday. Minnesota just keeps on winning, having now pushed their record to an impressive 12-2. On MNF, they beat the Bears, 30-12, registering their 7th straight win as they now push for a premier playoff spot, having now evened the slate with Detroit, also at 12-2, in the top-heavy NFC North. Seattle is atop their division at 8-6 with the Rams, but last week’s loss to the Packers at home, 30-13, was a bad blow, ending their 4-game win streak and making things closer in the NFC West with the Rams having a win over them. They really need a win this week to avoid coming out of this 2-game homestand winless, as their final two games are on the road. Who can deliver for us on Sunday? Let’s break it down!

Good Spot for Seattle?

After getting hammered by another NFC North team last week at home, they get another shot at it this week. Seattle didn’t really catch many breaks in the scheduling department, taking on teams like the Packers and Vikes late in the season before being sent on the road for the last two games of the year. They still managed to go into Detroit and pin a loss on the Lions earlier in the season. Therein lies some of the appeal with the Seahawks—a wildly inconsistent team, but one that still offers a high ceiling week-to-week. They are sometimes a more attractive betting option as an underdog, which they are at home this week.

A positive stance on the Seahawks this week isn’t easy, going against this good Brian Flores-led defense that the Vikes bring into town this week. On Sunday night, in the loss against Green Bay, Seattle quarterback Geno Smith hurt his knee, leaving the game in the third quarter and not returning. Word is that there is no structural damage, and head coach Mike Macdonald said he anticipates Smith being at practice this week. Still, the idea of Seattle going against this defense in a less-than-ideal state isn’t terribly appetizing. They’ve been playing without lead back Kenneth Walker, with his return not yet decided. We’re seeing diminishing returns from longtime Seattle standout Tyler Lockett. Wide receiver DK Metcalf seems to be playing hurt and isn’t the same guy. And while Zack Charbonnet can fill in nicely at running back and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has seen some nice player-growth in his second season, these setbacks have come at a cost. It’s just when you get to this point in the season, there’s a lot to be said for being more-intact personnel-wise and in that category, maybe the Vikings enter this spot with a little bit of an edge.

Bad Time to Go Against Minnesota?

Normally, you’d think a 12-2 team has some extra slack or margin for error, but the Vikes are still in the thick of not only a divisional race but the top seed in the conference with three teams in the conference currently at 12-2. Whereas Seattle is still fighting for a spot that Minnesota already has, I wouldn’t be so quick to interpret that as the Seahawks being more-motivated to win this. There is a pretty large range of outcomes depending on how the Vikings fare these last several weeks, with a top-seed and first round bye to a wild-card spot being the range of results. I certainly wouldn’t bank on a come-down now from the Vikings.

People keep waiting for the wheels to come out with Sam Darnold at QB for the Vikings and while his play has at times suffered in the second-half of the season, he still entered MNF last week with 11 TDs and no picks in his last four starts. With the one-two punch of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the aerial attack is still robust, with Aaron Jones having a good season in his first year as a Viking. Tight end TJ Hockenson is starting to round into form, and they can always lean on that defense in the event that things aren’t going according to plan.

Don’t Overlook Seattle

It took a lot of work for the Seahawks to get to this spot in what has been a true up-and-down season. They started fast, went into a swoon, and then started rising again, only to see that interrupted last week. They cannot afford to go with the tide again and start sinking now or it’s going to be curtains for this team. My feeling is that a lot of effort went into getting here. Last week lit a fire, with the gap narrowing and the light at the end of the tunnel now being in plain sight. And when Seattle lets it fly a little bit in spots where they’re not expected to win, they can be pretty dangerous in that light.

Take the Points

It’s not easy standing in front of a Vikings train that has won 7 straight and is just coming across as a good and competent team that delivers every week. Seattle can’t match that consistency. They’re a team where you don’t know what you’re getting from week-to-week. But there is a good side to that: on certain weeks, you get an overall product that surpasses what the oddsmakers were suspecting. I’d like to see more-positive news on the Seattle personnel front before taking the plunge, but I sense the Seahawks will be competitive in this game, a contest where having 3 points very well may come in handy. I’ll take Seattle.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Seattle Seahawks plus 3 points.