Vikings vs. Lions Week 18 Predictions & Picks: NFC North Title & Top Seed Up for Grabs!

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, 1/5/25
When: 8:20 pm ET Sunday, Jan. 5
Where: Ford Field
TV: NBC Peacock

Point spread: Minn +3/Det -3
Money line: Minn +135/Det -160
Total: 57

 
The Lions and Vikings meet for the 127th time Sunday night at Ford Field, and there’s never been more at stake in this rivalry. With both teams at 14-2 on the season, this game will decide both the NFC North title and the top seed for the upcoming NFC playoffs.
 
These teams met for a dandy of a game back in October, a last-second Detroit victory up at Minneapolis. Can the Lions pull off the season sweep? Or will the Vikings return the favor?
 

NFL Betting Odds

 
The Week 18 NFL betting market opened Detroit as a 3-point favorite for Sunday night, with an over/under of right around 52. Early betting action goosed that total five points to 57.

Vikings Betting Preview

 
Minnesota just extended its winning streak to nine with a 27-25 decision over Green Bay Sunday night. And that game was not as close as that final score might indicate. The Vikings spotted the Packers the first three points of the game but led 13-3 into halftime. Minnesota then scored the first seven points of the second half and didn’t let Green Bay get back to within one score until only two minutes remained, which the Vikes then ran off the clock.
 
Minnesota out-gained the Packers 441-271 and dominated time of possession by a 36:24 split.
 
The Vikings have actually been out-gained by three of their last five opponents and out-rushed by three of their last five foes. But they’re also +6 on turnover margin over that span.
 
Two weeks ago Minnesota scored late to win at Seattle 27-24. Three weeks ago the Vikes buried the hapless Bears 30-12.
 
At 14-2 overall Minnesota would be the No. 5 seed in the NFC if the playoffs started today, headed for a wild-card game at Tampa Bay. But if the Vikings win Sunday, they jump to the No. 1 seed with a bye week to enjoy.

Lions Betting Preview

Meanwhile Detroit just won a basically meaningless game Monday night at San Francisco 40-34. The Lions, who did not need to win to stay alive for the top NFC seed, played their starters anyway. Detroit trailed 28-21 in the third quarter, then used a 19-0 run to take control.
 
The Lions gave up 475 yards of San Francisco offense but won the turnover battle 2-0, which led directly to 14 Detroit points.
 
Two weeks ago, the Lions allowed 382 yards of Chicago offense but won 34-17. Three weeks ago, Detroit got gouged for 559 yards of Buffalo offense and lost 48-42. So that Lions defense, bitten by the injury bug, is a little suspect as of late.
 
At 14-2 overall, Detroit would be the No. 1 seed in the NFL if the playoff started today. But a loss Sunday would drop them to No. 5 and on the road for wild-card weekend.
 
On the injury front, Detroit is playing without RB Montgomery and several Week 1 defensive starters. On the other sideline, Minnesota RB Jones is listed as questionable for Sunday, although he’s basically been listed as Q for most of this season.

Vikings-Lions Recent History

 
Detroit owns a four-game winning streak on Minnesota, going 4-0 ATS along the way. The Lions won the first meeting between these teams this season back in October in Minneapolis 31-29.
 
Detroit trailed that game 10-0 early, led 21-10, then trailed late 29-28. But the Lions drove 44 yards to a go-ahead field goal with 15 seconds left and hung on.
 
That game played over a total of 49 as the teams combined for almost 800 yards of total offense.
 

Totals Report

 
The Under is 9-7 in Viking games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.
 
The Over is 9-6 in Lions games, which are averaging 54 points.
 
The Over is 7-2 over the last nine meetings between these teams, which averaged 53 total points.
 

Free NFL Betting Pick

 
These teams played a two-point game back in October. What’s changed since then? The most significant difference we see is Detroit’s defense. Injuries have certainly taken a toll, as that unit has fallen to No. 22 overall in the League. For cryin’ out loud, they recently gave up 382 yards to the Bears! These teams are very even, and we expect a split of the season series. We like the Vikes for the win on the moneyline Sunday night.