Vikings vs. Broncos: Sunday Night Pick ATS & Expert Betting Analysis

Minnesota Vikings (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, November 19, 8:20 PM EST

Where: Empower Field, Denver, Co

TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Min +2 / Den -2

Moneyline: Vikes +130 / Broncs -150

Over/Under Total: 43.5

The Minnesota Vikings travel west to the Mile High City to take on the Broncos on Sunday Night Football this week. A month ago, this looked like a game between two teams that would be vying for the number 1 pick in next year’s draft, but now it is between 2 teams that could navigate their way to a wildcard spot. BOVADA.LV has made the Broncos 2-point favorites and set the over/under at 43.5. Both of these teams are due for letdowns, but the play is to take the points with the Vikings. Here is the handicap.

Minnesota Is Finding A Way

The Vikings closed out week 5 with a 1-4 record, and their best player, Justin Jefferson, heading to IR with a hamstring injury. It looked like a lost season at this point, then they squeaked out a victory against the Bears and played well to beat the 49ers and Packers, getting to 4-4, but lost QB Kirk Cousins for the season against the Pack. Again, it looked like a lost season, but the team acquired Josh Dobbs, and now they have won 5 in a row to sit at 6-4 and are currently a playoff team. Dobbs has stepped in and learned the playbook on the fly, competing 67% of his passes while throwing 3 TDs and 0 picks. He has also run when needed, rushing 15 times in his two games with Minnesota, getting seven first downs and two touchdowns on those runs. Jefferson is expected to return this week to line up with rookie Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson and form 1 of the most elite receiving corps in the league. Dobbs threw for 268 yards against a pretty good Saints defense without Jefferson, so he should improve this week as he gets Jefferson back and continues to learn the offense. The Vikings expect to be without RB Alexander Mattison, who suffered a concussion last week, so they will have to rely on Ty Chandler, which is a definite downgrade, but the Broncos run defense is historically bad, so Chandler shouldn’t get completely shut down.

The Broncos’ defense has looked better since the Dolphins ran over them in week 3, but they are still probably the worst defense in the league – ranking last in points per game allowed and rushing yards per attempt and next to last in passing yards per attempt. In the last two weeks, they have been able to cover their defensive issues by creating nine takeaways, but that is not sustainable. Buffalo had multiple drives last week where they easily marched the ball down the field and scored a touchdown, so when offenses protect the ball, they usually reach “pay dirt” against the Broncos. I think Dobbs and the Vikings will be able to prioritize ball security and put up points in Mile High. Denver has been blitzing at a high rate as the season has progressed, so look for the Viking offense to be ready and for their playmakers to rule the day.

The Broncos Offense Is Not Explosive

Sean Payton has molded the Broncos’ attack into an efficient ball control unit. Javonte Williams has evolved into a workhorse back who grinds out yards and first downs but isn’t much of a threat to bust out long runs. QB Russell Wilson is embracing the ball control style, using play action or his legs to get key first downs. Payton has been able to hide the weak O-line with this approach, but that line doesn’t give Wilson much opportunity to strike down the field. They also struggle to sustain long drives- so these past two weeks, when the defense gave them short fields, they could cash in. However, in those two games that the Broncos have put up 24 points in each, they only managed 540 total yards, and they have only topped 300 yards in five of their nine games. This week should be more of the same. If they don’t get short fields, they won’t score into the 20s.

The Viking defense has also made great strides during the season. New DC Brian Flores brought a man-to-man blitzing scheme to the Twin Cities, and it was ugly in September. But during this five-game winning streak, opposing offenses have only averaged 304 yards per game, and the Vikings have created 11 takeaways. Danielle Hunter is a one-man wrecking crew, notching 11 quarterback sacks and forcing three fumbles. Denver has allowed the 6th most sacks so that Hunter could have a big night on Sunday. Minnesota has been very good against the run, which will force Denver into passing situations and expose the holes in their offensive line. I like the Vikings’ defense to win this battle and hold the Broncos’ offense in check this week.

There Is Line Value With The Vikings

The look-ahead line had Minnesota favored, but after Monday Night, when the Bills gift-wrapped a win for Denver, the line flipped. Denver is +10 in turnovers in their four wins and has only outgained their opponents in two games this year – by a total of 20 yards – so they are not winning games by being the better team. Minnesota has outgained their opponents in five of nine games (1 tie) and is +5 in turnovers in their six wins, so they are winning games by being the better team for 60 minutes. On a neutral field, the Vikings should be favored by more than a field goal. Denver is a difficult place to play with the altitude, and the home crowd will be loud for their team, which is showing some life. Even if we give Denver the full 3 points for the home field, Minnesota should be the small favorite. As stated above, both teams are due for some regression, but I think Denver’s regression will be more pronounced.

Take The Points With Minnesota

The play on Sunday Night Football is to take the Vikings and the 2 points.