Vikings vs. Bears Total Pick 9/29/19

Minnesota Vikings (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Chicago Bears (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS)

NFL Week 4

Date/Time: Sunday September 29th, 2019. 4:25PM (EST)

Where: Soldier Field Chicago, I.L.

TV: CBS

Point Spread:MIN +2/CHI -2 (Sportbet)

Over/Under Total: 38.5

The Chicago Bears defense stole the show once again on Monday night in a 31-15 beating over the Washington Redskins. Despite WR Taylor Gabriel’s three touchdown passes, the story of the night involved an over capacitating Bears defense that recorded four sacks, five turnovers, and a defensive touchdown in a dominating victory. This week the Bears return home for a Week 4 battle with fellow NFC North rival in the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are also coming off an impressive victory last week by smashing the Raiders 34-14. However, like Chicago, the Vikings still have looming concerns on the offensive side of the football, and it will be interesting to see how things unfold this week when two of the best defenses in the league collide at Soldier Field.

Struggling offenses plague Vikings vs. Bears

By now I believe most of the NFL is aware that the Bears’ offense has some issues to address. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky looked awful in the opener which grabbed national attention, and those problems have not exactly been corrected. Despite a three-touchdown performance against Washington, Trubisky still missed numerous throws that resulted in curtailed drives. If not for the numerous turnovers created by the Bears, it could have easily been a different narrative Monday night.

On the ground, the Bears have continued to provide a running back by committee approach between Mike Davis, David Montgomery, and Tarik Cohen with little success. Montgomery clearly appears to be the most talented of the group, but Head Coach Matt Nagy has yet to turnover the timeshare. As a result, there has been minimal offensive output. The Bears scored just 19 points combined in their first two games and needed five turnovers to get things going last Monday night against an awful Redskins defense. Now the Minnesota Vikings come to town sporting one of the NFL’s better defensive units which is obviously going to make things difficult for this Chicago offense yet again.

For the Vikings, the offense has been more productive compared to Chicago. However, nearly all of the success has come on the ground thanks to a potential breakout campaign from running back Dalvin Cook who has rushed for 375 yards with four touchdowns through the opening weeks. Even rookie Alexander Mattison has looked good behind Cook averaging nearly 5 yards per touch. However, for as good as the offense has looked on the ground, the Vikings have looked that bad through the air. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been terrible completing 58% passing with just 502 yards, three touchdowns, and two picks through 3 games. Star wide outs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have been held to only 17 combined catches through 3 weeks which is a considerable drop from their normal production.

Personally, I believe this Vikings offense is still in a better position to go after a victory this Sunday. The downside to that narrative is that you cannot underestimate this Bears’ defense which continues to play shutdown football. Additionally, the Vikings ground attack will likely face some resistance this week as a result of that Bears’ defense. Chicago is yielding just 3.07 yards per attempt on the ground this season and I don’t foresee any situation where they allow Dalvin Cook to run wild. As a result, I believe the defensive narrative will continue to overshadow the offenses this week because quite simply; the defenses for both teams have tremendous upside in their match-ups this week.

Loot’s Seahawks at Cards Pick ATS

Vikings vs. Bears Betting Trends

The Vikings are 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and 10-4-1 ATS in their previous 15 games in September. The total has trended towards the ‘under’ quite significantly, which aligns with my prediction this week. The Vikings have hit the ‘under’ in four of their last five games and four of their last five road games. The Bears are 10-4 ATS in their previous 14 games and also trend in the direction of the under. The Bears have hit the ‘under’ in 7 of their last eight games overall. Chicago also owns the advantage head to head going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Minnesota.

Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Under 38.5