Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions Point Spread Bet 1/7/23

Minnesota Vikings (7-9 SU, 7-6-3 ATS) at Detroit Lions (11-5, 11-5), 1/7/24

When: 1 pm ET Sunday, Jan. 7

Where: Ford Field

TV: Fox

Point spread: Min +3/Det -3

Money line: Minn +135/Motor City -160

Total: 45.5

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The Lions and Vikings complete their regular seasons with an NFC North grudge match on Sunday afternoon in Detroit. The Lions are already division champs and will probably be the No. 3 seed for the upcoming NFC playoffs. But they have a chance, albeit slim, to claim the No. 2 seed. So Coach Campbell is saying he will play his starters on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Minnesota needs a win to have any chance of catching a wild-card berth.

The early line movement on this game indicates bettors are thinking Coach Campbell might be using some subterfuge heading in.

Who do we like for our free Vikings/Lions Week 18 pick?

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 18 NFL betting market opened Detroit at -4.5 for Sunday, with an over/under of right around 44.5. Early betting action dropped that line to -3 and bumped that total to 45.5.

Vikings Betting Preview

Minnesota fell to 1-5 over its last six games after losing at home to Green Bay Sunday night 33-10. The Vikings, back to starting rookie Jaren Hall at QB, fell down 10-0 early, trailed 23-3 at the half, and mounted little challenge from there, taking a bad home loss to a hated rival.

Minnesota got out-gained by the Packers 470-211 and gave up 177 yards on the ground.

Two weeks ago, the Vikings, with journeyman Nick Mullens at QB, lost at home to this Detroit outfit 30-24. Three weeks ago, Minnesota blew a two-touchdown, 4th-quarter lead and lost at Cincinnati 27-24 in overtime.

In fact, the Vikes haven’t covered a spread since they lost at Denver six games ago, 21-20 at +2.5.

At 7-9 overall Minnesota has one narrow path to the playoffs; win Sunday and get losses by the Packers, Seattle, and either Tampa Bay or New Orleans. Which, believe it or not, almost seems possible.

Lions Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Lions are coming off that maddening 20-19 loss at Dallas last Saturday. Detroit led that game 13-10 early in the fourth quarter, fell down 20-13, but scored a touchdown with 23 seconds left. But as you might have seen, the Lions then got screwed out of a successful 2-point conversion that probably would have won the game.

Detroit out-gained the Cowboys 420-384 and out-rushed Dallas 125-61. So the Lions have out-rushed five of their last six opponents.

Two weeks ago, the Lions out-rushed these Vikings 143-17 and won at Minneapolis 30-24.

At 11-5 overall, Detroit is already in the playoffs. The Lions are the No. 3 seed at the moment but could catch the No. 2 spot with a win early Sunday and losses by both Philadelphia and Dallas later in the day. Will Coach Campbell play this game to win? Yeah, we think so.

On the personnel front, Minnesota started rookie Hall at QB last week, but Mullens came in to relieve. As for this week, Hall is still No. 1 on the depth chart, but we won’t be surprised if Mullens gets the call.

Vikings-Lions Recent History

Not long ago, Minnesota beat Detroit eight times in a row, but the Lions are fighting back, winning three of the last four meetings outright, going 6-0 ATS over the last six. As mentioned above, two weeks ago, Detroit won the first meeting between the teams this season at Minnesota 30-24.

The Lions outplayed the Vikings that day but had to hang on at the end. Detroit also covered at -2.5.

Also, that game played over a total of 48, as the teams combined for almost 800 yards of offense.

Mullens threw for over 400 yards for the Vikes that day but also tossed four picks.

Common Opponents

These divisional rivals played ten common opponents this season: the Bears, Packers, NFC South, and AFC West. Detroit played those foes to 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, Minnesota to 6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS.

NFL Betting Trends

Minnesota is 3-5 SU, 3-3-2 ATS since losing QB Cousins to injury, averaging 18 PPG.

Totals Report

The Unders are 10-6 in Vikings games this season which are averaging 41 total points.

The Overs are 10-6 in Lions games, which are averaging 50 points.

The Unders are 138-118 in the NFL this season.

The Overs are 6-1 over the last seven meetings between these teams.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Detroit still harbors slim hopes for a better playoff seed, and Coach Campbell doesn’t seem like the kind of person who would tank a game like this. The Lions own the better quarterback, the better running game, the better run defense, and the better performance against common opponents. Also, Detroit just outplayed Minnesota two weeks ago. We like the Lions for Sunday.

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