Vikings at Packers Week 4 Predictions & Total Pick

NFL Week 4 – Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, WI)
When: Sunday, September 29th at 1:00 PM EST
Watch: CBS

Betting Odds

Spread: Green Bay Packers -2.5
Over/Under: 44.0

We have an NFC North battle coming our way this Sunday as the undefeated Minnesota Vikings travel to Green Bay, Wisconsin, to take on the Packers in what is shaping up to be an epic showdown. In a loaded division, the Packers and the Vikings were always thought to be contenders. Some early season and even preseason shake-ups could have changed that narrative, but both squads have persisted thus far and are hoping to sustain their early levels of success. The playmakers on offense and defense will define the outcome of this game and will be key pieces as both sides try to install a game plan that will yield them with positive results. We have a great matchup on our hands here, and there aren’t many better venues for fall football than Lambeau Field. Before I tell you who I’m siding with, let me break down how each team has fared so far and identify a few critical differentiators that will impact the final score.

Minnesota Betting Preview

The Minnesota Vikings drafted their signal caller for the future, Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, in the 2024 draft. He was ready to step in and start on day one, but a knee injury forced him to the sideline and required season-ending surgery. Luckily for the Vikings, they added a young journeyman in Sam Darnold to their QB room. Darnold was immediately thrust into the starting job and has looked poised and under control in the pocket through three games. He has led the Vikings to a perfect 3-0 record and has thrown eight touchdowns to just two interceptions. It doesn’t hurt that he is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL on his team, and he has Justin Jefferson, who has caught 14 passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings have also seen the emergence of Jalen Nailor, who has played more due to Jordan Addison’s inability to stay on the field as he nurses an ankle injury. Addison may return to action this week, but he has only logged limited practices to date, so it is not certain.

Minnesota is also hoping for a revenge game from running back Aaron Jones, who spent his entire career with Green Bay prior to joining the Vikings this year. Jones has been effective as a rusher and a receiver and leads Minnesota in carries and rushing yards (42 for 228). The defensive unit has also been a bright spot for the squad in purple. They have tallied five interceptions on the year and are stout against the run. The Vikings run defense ranks 2nd in the NFL, allowing only 71.3 yards per game. Minnesota is also the 2nd best team in terms of points allowed per game, only giving up an average of 10. They will need this same level of defensive effort on Sunday.

Green Bay Betting Preview

The Packers season could have easily flipped with the injury that quarterback Jordan Love sustained at the end of their Week 1 game. Malik Willis has filled in fabulously in his absence, and they have unlocked a new level of rushing efficiency that they did not have before. It remains to be seen if Love will return to the field in Week 4, as it was reported that he was close to returning last week. He has not practiced at full capacity, and since the team has played well lately, I think the Packers will take their time and not rush him back on the field to reduce the risk of any reinjury. Green Bay has relied heavily on running back Josh Jacobs, who has already carried the ball 62 times for 278 yards. Surprisingly, he has not yet rushed for a touchdown, but I’m sure that will be coming in short order.

The passing game plan is a little more sporadic with Willis under center as he is not the pocket passer that Love is, but Green Bay knows how to pick the right spots to take shots through the air, and Willis has delivered. On just 13 completions last week, Malik Willis was able to rack up over 200 yards passing. His dual-threat ability will be tough for any defense to defend. The Packers’ defense has been strong against the run, holding opponents to 105.7 yards per game (10th in the NFL). They are leaky against the pass but have been able to keep their opposition below 20 points per game on average. Xavier McKinney and Jaire Alexander form an incredible duo in the secondary and have combined for five interceptions in just three games. Alexander will likely shadow Justin Jefferson in what will be the best matchup between the lines. The winner of that matchup will certainly help decide the outcome.

My Pick: Under 44.0

This game is extremely difficult to predict who will win. I lean slightly towards the home team, but with the way Minnesota has been playing, they have a real chance to steal this one as well. One thing that’s clear is that both teams like to utilize their running backs to take pressure off of the QBs. Since both defenses are solid against the ground game, I expect this to be an old school battle. The clock will keep running and the score will stay below that total of 44.