Turkey Day Picks: New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys 11/24/22

New York Giants (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS)

NFL Football Week 12

Date/Time: Thursday November 24th, 2022. 4:30PM (EST)

Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX

TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: NYG +7/DAL -7 (Make the Pokes a +13 underdog by inserting them into a massive 20 point NFL teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Moneyline: NYG +245/DAL -285

Total: 43

Last week, I urged bettors to double down on the Dallas Cowboys, following a disappointing loss to the Packers, in a favorable match-up against the 8-1 SU Minnesota Vikings. However, I don’t think anyone in the NFL expected Dallas to respond in the manner which resulted in a 40-3 massacre over the Vikings. The Cowboys offense fired on all cylinders as Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott both scored two touchdowns. The Cowboys defense also dominated an inferior Vikings’ offensive line and in what was easily the best performance of the year from Dallas. This Thursday, the Cowboys will return to their traditional Thanksgiving Day spotlight when they host the New York Giants in a pivotal divisional match-up at AT&T Stadium.

Following a breakout 7-2 SU start to the season, the Giants quickly became a surprise contender in the NFC East and trailed the Philadelphia Eagles by just one spot in the NFC East prior to week 11. However, the Giants suffered a somewhat surprising 31-18 loss to the Detroit Lions last week which perhaps delivered a reality check. Instead of fighting for the top spot in the division, the Giants face a pivotal match-up against the emerging Cowboys in a spot where the loser could be in jeopardy of losing grasp of their chances at the playoffs. Unlike Dallas who is coming off their best performance of the year, the G-Men are coming to the turkey table on the heels of one of their worst performances of the season which has likely influenced the betting line as the Giants will be 7 point underdogs for this important week 12 showdown.

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

I am not going to beat around the bush with this match-up analysis. I don’t have any faith in the Giants offense this week. Last week, star RB Saquan Barkley had 15 carries for just 22 yards against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. To be fair, Barkley did not have many opportunities as the Giants offensive line did not provide any type of help. As a result of the running woes, QB Daniel Jones was put into a rare heavy passing script. Jones threw for 341 yards with 1 touchdown but also had two critical interceptions which were costly as well. Before that performance, Jones’ previous season-high was just (217) yards which proves that the Giants’ offense relies heavily on the run-game.

For this week’s match-up, the Giants will face a Cowboys defense that ranks in the top 10 DVOA against the run and has held opponents to just 17 points or less in 7 of their last 9 outings. In my eyes, the Cowboys’ athleticism along the defensive line is going to be truly troublesome for an inferior New York offensive line. Granted, Saquan Barkley remains one of the most talented rushers in the league and definitely capable of a monster performance. However if Barkley does not have a monster performance, I believe QB Daniel Jones is a liability against this Dallas pass-rush. The Cowboys have been incredible at getting sacks/pressure on opposing quarterbacks and I don’t have any confidence that Jones’ can survive in that type of game script. When you consider the match-up advantage for the Cowboys’ defense, we just have to hope the Cowboys offense can stay hot. Right now, we have no reason to expect anything different.

More Picks: Get Keth Allen’s Bills at Lions Week 12 ATS Play

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

• The Giants are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games
• The Giants are 5-2 SU in the last 7 games
• The Giants have hit the “under” in 5 of the last 7 games
• The Giants are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games in November
• The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games
• The Cowboys are 7-2 SU in the last 9 games
• The Cowboys have hit the “under” in 14 of the last 21 games
• The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 games against the Giants
• The Cowboys are 10-1 SU in the last 11 games against the Giants

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Prediction

I believe the Dallas defense continues to play at a high level and they should have a sizable advantage over the Giants offense this week. With the Cowboys’ offense apparently rolling, I think we should roll with the hot hand again this week!
Jay’s Pick: Take Dallas -7