TNF Pick: Seahawks vs. Cowboys Prediction ATS

Seattle Seahawks (6-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS)

The Seattle Seahawks come to AT&T Stadium for a big Thursday Night Football showdown with the Dallas Cowboys in this key NFC battle. Both teams played on Thanksgiving, being spared a short week heading into this matchup. It didn’t work out well for the Seahawks, losing their second in a row to the Niners, 31-13, to fall to 6-5. At one point 5-2, they look to rebound here before the season slides away from them. It won’t be easy against a home-Cowboys squad coming off a 45-10 slaughtering of the Commanders on Thanksgiving. They’ve won 3 in a row and at 8-3, look to start putting together their postseason case. Who can get us the cover in Arlington on Thursday Night Football?

Tough Task for Seattle

The Seahawks are at a point in the season where they need to see an upswing or it’s going to be curtains. And it’s not helpful for that spot to come against this team at home. Remarkably, the Cowboys have not only not tasted defeat at home, but they’ve never even trailed at AT&T Stadium in ’23. Seattle is going against the kind of offensively-gifted team that can give their defense trouble, while asking a slumping offense to keep pace. It’s not clear as of press-time whether they’ll have Kenneth Walker, II. back at RB, but with Smith struggling and the defense starting to fray a bit at the edges, this doesn’t seem like an ideal opponent on the surface for Seattle.

Then again, Seattle has been able to respond to urgency before and see it play a factor. Seattle’s season in on the line and either they start getting results or a wild-card spot is going to start working its way off the table. Maybe Geno Smith, his receivers like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba can come alive, get some help from the run-game. But if they decide to play looser and Smith continues to be error-prone, this is one of the last defenses you’d ever want to see, with Dallas’ ability to capitalize on mistakes unmatched in the league.

The Cowboys’ State of Mind

Dallas seems dialed in, and it’s not easy to find reasons for why they’d stop now. From an urgency standpoint, they don’t seem to be waning, knowing the margin for error is small if they want to catch the Eagles within their own division. In the game after this, they get Philly for the second time and would like that game to have a lot of meaning, which it would have from a divisional context if they win this Thursday and enter that spot on the long week.

The one possible reservation is that things can’t continue to go this well for the Cowboys, right? We see Dak Prescott on one of his most-impressive stretches, racking up a handful of 300 yard/4-touchdown games. Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle are coming alive in the backfield, with CeeDee Lamb and others getting it done through the air. We’re seeing the Dallas defense be both stout and playmaking. Cornerback Da’Ron Bland is scoring TDs more than some teams’ top receivers. But even though this is what we’ve been seeing lately, it doesn’t mean it will continue. Usually, when something happens enough to where you can call it a pattern, and everyone loads onto the train, it’s when it’s due to end. In other words, this has all the earmarks of another Dallas onslaught—at home against a team that has gone a bit sideways with a “D” that has grown increasingly-exploitable. But sometimes, when it looks too easy, it’s a red flag.

The Cowboys’ State of Mind

Dallas seems dialed in, and it’s not easy to find reasons for why they’d stop now. From an urgency standpoint, they don’t seem to be waning, knowing the margin for error is small if they want to catch the Eagles within their own division. In the game after this, they get Philly for the second time and would like that game to have a lot of meaning, which it would have from a divisional context if they win this Thursday and enter that spot on the long week.

The one possible reservation is that things can’t continue to go this well for the Cowboys, right? We see Dak Prescott on one of his most-impressive stretches, racking up a handful of 300-yard/4-touchdown games. Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle are coming alive in the backfield, with CeeDee Lamb and others getting it done through the air. We’re seeing the Dallas defense be both stout and playmaking. Cornerback Da’Ron Bland is scoring TDs more than some teams’ top receivers. But even though this is what we’ve been seeing lately, it doesn’t mean it will continue. Usually, when something happens enough to where you can call it a pattern, and everyone loads onto the train, it’s when it’s due to end. In other words, this has all the earmarks of another Dallas onslaught—at home against a team that has gone a bit sideways with a “D” that has grown increasingly exploitable. But sometimes, when it looks too easy, it’s a red flag.

What to Expect

The Cowboys are at home and riding a crescendo of success, but something tells me they’re not the iron-clad type of team that can be depended on to deliver a top-end version of what they’re capable of every single week. And if you’re looking to time a little come-down, this might be the week. I think writing off the Seahawks right now could be premature. And what we’ve seen in recent weeks is a definite low-end version of their range of possibilities. I just have the feeling that the last handful of weeks have served to create a gulf between these two teams that is larger than reality suggests. While it does speak to each respective team’s ability to produce results, it might not be the final word on what we see on the field on Thursday.

A casual fan sees this stand-alone game on Thursday night. He sees the Cowboys are killing everyone in their path, are at home, and taking on a Seattle team that is sliding and has put up more than 20 points just twice since week 4. It leads to an almost “damn the torpedoes” approach, and let’s just jump on Dallas. Truth be told, that’s going to work enough times to justify doing it again. But something tells me that between the two-faced Seattle defense and the very real ability for this Seattle offense to be vital, they can maybe see a spark in this elevated context.

Take the Points on the Road Underdog

I see a game with some points being scored both ways with big plays on both sides. While not ruling out the possibility that Seattle is starting to fade into the night, in which case this could be another Dallas bonanza, I sense this is a more desirable wagering spot for the Seahawks, getting a nice amount of cushion. Sure, they failed in that role last week, but usually, this year, they’ve been favored or been on the plus side of some pretty short spreads. In any event, I see them keeping this competitive enough to cover the spread on Thursday. I’ll take the Seahawks.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Seattle Seahawks plus 9 points.